2020 Election Props: Will Democrats Seize the Majority in the Senate?

While most people will tune into news coverage on Election Night with eyes on the race for the White House, let’s not forget that the next president isn’t the only decision the American people will be making. We also have a number of down-ballot races that will determine the balance of power in both houses of Congress.

In 2018, Democrats were able to take back control of the House thanks to a “blue wave.” Those midterm elections ultimately led to the impeachment of Trump a little over a year later. However, the Republican-held Senate ultimately voted to keep Trump in the Oval Office.

While Trump is in for the fight of his life against Joe Biden in 2020, there is also a decent chance Democrats will reclaim power in the Senate. A number of incumbent Senators on both sides of the aisle are in tough re-election battles of their own as we get closer and closer to Election Day.

Our top-ranked political betting sites have been keeping tabs on the Senate races, too. You can place bets on which candidates will win the opportunity to represent their states in the US Senate at these sites:

• MyBookie
• BetNow
• Bovada Sports
• BetUS
• BetOnline Sports

You can also wager on which party will have the majority once the dust settles. How should you bet the US Senate races? We’re glad you asked.

Tuberville Expected to Reclaim Alabama for Republicans

Doug Jones wound up winning the Alabama special election a couple of years ago to fill the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions, who left to become Trump’s first Attorney General. Sessions tried to run to reclaim his Senate seat in this election after being canned by the Trump Administration, but he ultimately lost his primary to former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville.

Jones managed to win the special election because his opponent, Roy Moore, had some serious questions about his past. It was those weird circumstances that resulted in Alabama, one of the most Republican states in the country, electing a Democrat to fill a Senate seat. Jones surely wouldn’t have won if the Republican candidate had been more viable.

A poll has Tommy Tuberville with a 13-point lead over Doug Jones in Alabama’s U.S. Senate race. https://t.co/HG63O5nsAC pic.twitter.com/svDRjjC4oD

— AL.com (@aldotcom) October 26, 2020

You can question whether Tuberville is cut out to fill a seat in the Senate considering he has zero political experience whatsoever, but he’s going to win this race because he’s a Republican. Recent FiveThirtyEight polls give Jones a better chance of winning in Alabama than Biden has, but that’s a low hurdle. The latest poll has Tuberville holding a 54-46 lead among local voters.

There likely isn’t a way for Jones to turn the tables between now and Election Day. Jones’ seat will flip from blue to red in a few days. Even at +550, Jones doesn’t look like a reasonable betting option.

Will Kelly Flip Arizona’s Red Seat?

Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, is seeking to replace Martha McSally in the seat that was vacated by longtime Arizona Senator John McCain a couple of years ago. McSally, who lost her bid for a Senate seat in 2018 at the hands of Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, was appointed to McCain’s seat shortly thereafter following his death.

McSally lost to Sinema by about three percentage points in her race a few years ago, and she is facing an even bigger deficit in 2020. The latest polls have Kelly trouncing his opponent by a 56-44 margin. The Republican Party has held deep roots in Arizona for decades, but 2020 may be the year Democrats take over.

Biden is up by over three points in FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages, which means he is now expected to take the state’s 11 Electoral College votes Trump won in 2016. Arizona is really the only true battleground state in the west region at this point. According to the odds, Kelly is now widely expected to unseat McSally and give the Grand Canyon State a pair of Democratic Senators, as well.

Gardner Losing Ground in Colorado

You may remember former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper’s brief run for the Democratic nomination ahead of this election. Hickenlooper crashed out after garnering zero attention from Democratic voters, but he wisely turned his attention to Colorado’s upcoming Senate race instead.

Hickenlooper is still fairly popular in his home state. Colorado is also quickly becoming one of the more progressive states in the country, so incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner was always going to be a vulnerable candidate as he sought re-election. The latest odds indicate that Gardner (+450) will likely need some sort of Election Day miracle in order to stick around in the Senate for another six years.

Biden leads Trump by nearly 14 points in Colorado, which means a state that was recently up for grabs is now solid blue. It only makes sense that Colorado would add a Democratic Senator to go with the state’s other Democratic Senator, Michael Bennet. Hickenlooper holds an eight-point lead over Gardner in the most recent Morning Consult polls. His margin of victory likely won’t be as large as Biden’s, but this is another seat that the Republicans will almost surely lose on November 3.

Iowa Up For Grabs

Iowa has been a true swing state in recent presidential elections. While Trump took the state fairly easily last time around, 2020 polls have POTUS in a dead-heat with Biden. There is a very real chance Biden turns Iowa blue next Tuesday.

It will also be fascinating to see what happens with the state’s Senate race. Joni Ernst, who won this seat in 2014 by accruing over 52 percent of the vote, has seen her favorability dwindle over the course of Trump’s first term. Her staunch support of the president likely hasn’t done her own popularity many favors. As a result, a Senate seat that appeared to be safely Republican is now a toss-up.

Joe Biden is leading in Pennsylvania, is narrowly ahead in Ohio and effectively tied with President Trump in Florida and Iowa, according to new Quinnipiac polls released on Thursday.https://t.co/bnwBV1wXH1

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 29, 2020

The most recent Quinnipiac poll has Ernst up two points (48-46) over her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. Ernst led this race by as many as six points as recently as August, so an awful lot has changed here in a relatively short period of time.

Iowa’s Senate race appears to be a 50/50 proposition as things stand today. As a result, either candidate is perfectly viable as a flier bet. Your profit potential is slightly greater with Ernst’s -110 odds, and it’s a little bit surprising that the incumbent isn’t the one slightly favored here. A Greenfield win certainly isn’t out of the question, but I don’t mind a low-dollar wager on Ernst to keep her seat here at close to even-money.

Is Kansas Really In Play for Democrats?

The odds favor Republican Roger Marshall to keep one of Kansas’ Senate seats red at -400. While he’s a sizable favorite, let’s not forget that Kansas is one of the most deeply red states in the union. The fact that a Democratic candidate has odds as favorable as +250 is fairly surprising. Marshall and Barbara Bollier are both vying to replace Republican Pat Roberts, who isn’t seeking re-election.

This is another race that has tightened as we get closer to Election Day. Marshall leads the most recent polls by about four percent, which is remarkable considering he was up 12 points in a Public Policy poll taken back in August.

Bollier may have a better chance if the election were further off, but Marshall should be able to run out the clock between now and Tuesday. The safe money is with Marshall at -400.

McConnell Isn’t Going Anywhere

Mitch McConnell has been the Senate majority leader since 2015, and he has become quite the divisive figure ever since. McConnell is frequently targeted by Democrats in campaign ads, but the Kentucky Senator has continued to post solid favorability numbers among his own constituents.

While Kentucky did elect a Democrat to the governorship a couple of years ago, the longtime Kentucky Senator is very likely to remain in his seat for at least the next six years. Democratic challenger Amy McGrath has taken in her fair share of campaign donations, but this doesn’t look like a close race.

McConnell holds a healthy 10-point lead in the latest polling. While that’s a slimmer margin than we’re used to seeing in a state this red, McConnell only needs a simple majority in order to keep his seat. While he may be relegated from majority leader to minority leader, McConnell will remain in the Senate past Election Day.

Collins Going Down

Susan Collins has been one of the more moderate Republican voices in the Senate in recent years, but she has continued to voice her support for Trump nevertheless. Maine is one of the few states in the northeast in which Republicans still have much of a voice, but they’re likely to see the Republican incumbent lose her seat next week.

Collins has consistently trailed Sara Gideon in polls dating back to the summer. Gideon holds a narrow two-point lead in the most recent SurveyUSA poll, but she led by seven in a different Pan Atlantic Research poll released earlier this month.

While this isn’t likely to be a blowout in favor of Democrats, Collins is still a predictable underdog here. She’s another candidate that will likely lose as a direct result of her continued support of the controversial president.

Gideon’s -250 odds are still attackable, so this looks like one of the better betting opportunities still available among Senate races.

Peters Likely To Hold Off James in Michigan

Republican causes have invested a lot of money in trying to flip Gary Peters’ Senate seat. The Michigan Senator is facing a tough re-election battle against Republican John James, but Michigan is one of the states likely to flip on the presidential side.

#NEW Reuters/Ipsos Tracking Poll

Wisconsin:

Biden 53% (+9)

Trump 44%

Michigan:

Biden 51% (+7)

Trump 44%

Pennsylvania:

Biden 50% (+5)

Trump 45%

Florida:

Biden 50% (+4)

Trump 46%

Arizona:

Biden 49% (+3)

Trump 46%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 26, 2020

Trump beat Clinton in Michigan by just 0.2 percentage points in 2016, but Biden holds a much more steady lead than Hillary did at this point four years ago. With Michiganders likely to turn the state blue, it would seem logical to conclude that the state’s Democratic Senator will also retain his spot in Congress.

Peters has consistently held a double-digit lead over James in recent polls, which solidifies his status as a very heavy favorite at -250. As is the case with Gideon in Maine, a bet on Peters at the current odds makes plenty of sense.

Daines in For A Fight in Montana

Regardless of what happens on Election Day, one of the Senators from Montana will be named “Steve.” At this point, it’s a question of whether Montanans will put Daines or Bullock in that seat.

Bullock is the current Montana Governor that launched a brief presidential run of his own. Like Hickenlooper, he turned his attention to the Senate after bowing out of the race. Montana is a deep red state in presidential elections, but Democrats have fared surprisingly well in the Senate. Bullock is looking to join Jon Tester in Washington to give the state a pair of Democratic Senators.

Daines was elected in 2014, but he’s in danger of losing his seat after just one term. FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling data has the two virtually tied. Some polls put Daines up by a point, while others have Bullock leading by the same slim margin.

Given the toss-up nature of this race, a flier on Bullock at the current +155 odds is quite attractive. The +155 odds equal an implied probability of about 39 percent, but in reality, Bullock should be right around 50 percent. The discrepancy in the odds and polling numbers is something you should take advantage of as a bettor, which is why a bet on Bullock just looks like the right play from a math perspective.

Tillis On the Ropes in North Carolina

The race for a Senate seat out of North Carolina took a turn when Democrat Cal Cunningham admitted to having an improper relationship with a woman that was not his wife. Some believed that would be enough to allow Thom Tillis to win re-election, but the polling says Cunningham’s scandal hasn’t really hurt his chances with voters.

Polls have generally favored Cunningham, but this is another race that looks like it could legitimately go either way. A Citizen Data poll from October 17-20 had Cunningham up by six points, but a more recent Swayable survey had Tillis up one.

The odds clearly favor the Democrat to turn the seat blue, but we can take the same betting approach here that we have taken with other underdogs. Tillis has at least a puncher’s chance of keeping his spot in the Senate, so a low-dollar bet on his current +115 odds makes sense. You’re getting plus-money on an incumbent in a close race, which is always an appealing option from a betting perspective.

Could Graham Be Ousted?

Lindsey Graham is one of the most recognizable faces in Republican politics, but the longtime South Carolina Senator is in his most heated re-election battle yet. He has been vastly outraised by Democrat Jaime Harrison, and recent polls have even gone as far as to give Harrison a slight edge to claim a spot in the Senate.

Graham has been representing South Carolina in the Senate since 2003, and he has won each of his first three elections fairly easily. Harrison has been his most competitive challenger to date, which has led Graham to go as far as to beg for campaign donations in numerous recent TV appearances.

It’s a day that ends in a y which means Lindsey Graham is on Fox News begging for money pic.twitter.com/9HdACsrCFV

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 27, 2020

Graham led 49-47 in a recent East Carolina University poll, while Harrison had a 47-45 edge in a Morning Consult poll taken between October 11-20. The +225 odds on Harrison give him just a 30.7 percent chance, but the polling says he is far more competitive than that.

This is another instance in which a cheap wager on the underdog has merit. Harrison has been in the thick of this race for quite some time now, so Graham is by no means the lock that his -350 odds may lead you to believe. Graham is the safer bet, but Harrison is viable if you’re looking for high-upside odds.

Which Party Will Control the Senate?

• Republican (+115)
• Democratic (-155)

As of this writing, Republicans hold 53 of the Senate’s 100 seats, with Democrats accounting for 45. The Senate also includes a pair of registered Independents – Bernie Sanders and Angus King – that typically vote with the Democrats.

So, the real balance is 53-47. Based on the outcomes we are expecting above, it’s feasible that Republicans can lose as many as eight seats next week. That’s a worst-case scenario, of course. The more likely outcome is somewhere in the middle. The most vulnerable Republican Senators are Collins (Maine), Gardner (Colorado), McSally (Arizona), and Tillis (North Carolina). Democrats are also surely going to lose their only seat in Alabama.

McConnell is a lock to stick around, while the odds favor Graham, Daines, and Marshall to win their respective races. If Democrats win in Maine, Colorado, Arizona, and North Carolina while losing in Alabama, the balance will be 50-50. If they can rally to pick up seats in Montana, South Carolina, and/or Iowa, Democrats will suddenly hold a majority.

There is a very real possibility that we see a 50/50 split in the Senate after Election Day, but the smart money lies with the Democrats to take a majority. It’s likely that one of those 50/50 races winds up going blue, which tips the scales in favor of the blue side of the aisle.