2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest: Odds, Props and Joey Chestnut

On Saturday, July 4^th, the annual battle between humans and hot dogs once again captivates a global audience as the world’s most amazing carnivorous competitors defy the laws of human anatomy through 10 minutes of digestive destruction that’s equally remarkable and repulsive.

Get your gag reflexes ready as the Super Bowl of competitive eating the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest is back to provide jaw dropping entertainment for fans and juicy betting opportunities for sports bettors via the best Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting sites.

However, the 2020 edition of this contest will have a few changes due to the current health crisis. Nevertheless, the “104^th installment” of this glorious gorging will provide plenty of foodie fireworks for fans worldwide.

Nathan’s Famous 2020 Fourth of July International Hot Dog-Eating Contest to air live on ESPN

The event will be held with COVID-19 safety measures in place

July 4 | Noon ET | ESPN, ESPN App

More: https://t.co/DFqVC5JvBm pic.twitter.com/J3RjcXohMZ

— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) June 29, 2020

Changes to the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Since the early 1970’s, the hot dog eating contest was held at Coney Island on the corners of Surf and Stillwell Avenues. Due to the health measures put in place, this event will now take place at an undisclosed indoor location.

Another major change is that there will be only five competitors in each of the competitions. Typically, there are 15 competitors for both the men’s and women’s contests. One additional small change, due to the contest being indoors, is that we’ll have a digital scoreboard instead of a plastic one.

The sport’s Babe Ruth and Michael Jordan, Joey Chestnut, commented on the changes as he believes that the indoor environment could actually help the competitors:

“There’s a little bit of a bonus ’cause we’re gonna be eating in air conditioning and they’re less eaters, so they’re making less hot dogs so they might taste better. There’s a good chance that we might have better conditions for a world record and I’ma be pushing for it.”

Chestnut would go on to state that he thinks he can eat 75 hot dogs and possibly even put down 77. Without the heat, sweat dripping into their eyes, and pressure from the Coney Island crowds, this indoor environment could be perfect for record breaking carnage in both contests.

ESPN will broadcast the “World Series of wieners” for the 17^th straight year beginning at 12 PM ET. Mike Golic Jr. is tasked with the main commentary duties and will be joined by Major League Eating’s Richard Shea and ESPN reporter Jason Fitz.

2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prizes

This competition is more about prestige and glory than the prize money as the winners of the men’s and women’s competition take home $10K apiece. However, the men’s winner will get the prestigious mustard belt and the women’s winner will get the pink belt.

The cash prize is equal for both contests and breaks down as follows:

• 1^st Place: $10,000
• 2^nd Place: $5,000
• 3^rd Place: $2,500
• 4^th Place: $1,500
• 5^th Place: $1,000

Women’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

The first ever women’s only contest took place in 2011 and was won by Sonya Thomas. She also holds the record for the most hot dogs eaten by a woman in this competition with 45. The following is a breakdown of winners and hot dogs eaten since 2011:

• 2019 – Miki Sudo (31)
• 2018 – Miki Sudo (37)
• 2017 – Miki Sudo (41)
• 2016 – Miki Sudo (38.5)
• 2015 – Miki Sudo (38)
• 2014 – Miki Sudo (34)
• 2013 – Sonya Thomas (36.75)
• 2012 – Sonya Thomas (45)
• 2011 – Sonya Thomas (40)

With that in mind, let’s dive into the women’s hot dog eating contest odds and prop bets courtesy of Bovada to see where we can find some value and make some money:

Women’s Winner

• Miki Sudo (-850)
• The Field (+450)

Women’s Head to Head Winner Spread

• Miki Sudo -6.5 (-180)
• Michelle Lesco +6.5 (+140)

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner

• Over 39.5 (-120)
• Under 39.5 (-120)

Will Miki Sudo Win? (MyBookie)

• Yes (-500)
• No (+300)

Will Miki Sudo Win for the 7^th Straight Year?

Since 2014, Miki Sudo has won the women’s competition six straight years. She dethroned Sonya Thomas and has gone on to become the #1 ranked women’s competitive eater in the world. In fact, she’s ranked 6^th overall between both genders.

Oh, hello. https://t.co/qfrbeo64pz pic.twitter.com/7IVhNXCKDJ

— Miki Sudo (@OMGitsMIKI) April 22, 2020

Last year, Sudo actually had her lowest total in the national contest, but still ended up winning. Sudo finished with 31 consumed hot dogs and the second place Michelle Lesco had 26.5.

It was a down year for most of the women competitors as the Top 3 finishers all ate roughly 10% less hot dogs in the 2019 competition than they did in the 2018 competition.

With that said, Miki Sudo is out to not only win this year’s competition, but to break Sonya Thomas’ record of 45 hot dogs. The closest Sudo has come to this mark was in 2017 when she ate 41.

However, Sudo has eaten 50 hot dogs in training sessions under the same rules at the national hot dog contest. So, she’s feeling very confident in her chances to break the record this weekend.

In reality, whether she breaks it or not, there’s nobody better than Sudo in this competition. She will claim her 7^th title and continue to build a legacy that only Joey Chestnut can match.

Surprisingly, there is some value with Miki Sudo if you do some hot dog line shopping. BetOnline has Sudo as a large favorite around -850 odds. However, MyBookie has Sudo as low as -500 to win. If anyone could get Chestnut at -500 odds, they would bet their house on it.

How Many Hot Dogs Will the Women’s Winner Eat?

The Over/Under is set at 39.5 hot dogs for the winner of the women’s competition. That’s one more than what it was set at last year. And, we saw how the entire field came well below this mark.

Since 2014, when Sudo began this streak of dominance, she’s only gone over the 39.5 mark on one occasion, which was in 2017. The following is the winning mark by Miki Sudo each year she has won:

• 2019 – 31 hot dogs
• 2018 – 37 hot dogs
• 2017 – 41 hot dogs
• 2016 – 38 hot dogs
• 2015 – 38 hot dogs
• 2014 – 34 hot dogs

Prior to Sudo, Sonya Thomas went over this mark twice with 40 in 2011 and 45 in 2012. However, she came down to reality with 36.75 in 2013 the last of her three straight titles.

Although Sudo claims she’s ready to break the record, I have a hard time believing that will happen. I think the Under 39.5 (-120) is the smart bet here.

Can Michelle Lesco Hang With Sudo?

The last of the women’s hot dog eating contest prop bets is a head to head battle between Sudo and Michelle Lesco. Sudo is favored by 6.5 hot dogs. Let’s take a look at Lesco’s results over the last few years to see if she has a chance to cover this spread like a condiment.

• 2019 – 26.5 hot dogs
• 2018 – 28 hot dogs
• 2017 – 32 hot dogs
• 2016 – 27 hot dogs
• 2015 – 26 hot dogs
• 2014 – 27 hot dogs

Lesco’s career best is 32 hot dogs in the 2017 competition, which is the year Sudo set her career best with 41. Lesco closed the gap last year as she lost by only 4.5 which was an improvement for her 9 hot dog defeat to Sudo in 2018.

If they both hit career marks, then Sudo still wins by nine. Sudo averages 36 hot dogs eaten per contest while Lesco has averaged 27.75 hot dogs over that span. Once again, Sudo still out eats Lesco by 8.25 hot dogs.

As impressive as Lesco is, I just think she’s one step below Sudo in this competition. I’m taking the Over 6.5 in this one even though the value is with the Under. I’m thinking Sudo wins 36 to 28.

Men’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest was founded in lore that dates back to just before World War I. But, this competition really didn’t become popular on a global scale until the 21^st century when Japan’s Takeru Kobayashi became the first superstar of competitive eating.

While Kobayashi was at the top of the sport, Joey Chestnut kicked down the doors and declared himself the “next big thing” in the world of competitive eating. Yet, Chestnut didn’t just take the mantle as the sport’s best, he has gone on to become the Babe Ruth or Michael Jordan of competitive eating.

Chestnut has won 12 of the past 13 competitions including four in a row. His only loss over this impressive run was in 2015 when Matt Stonie won.

Due to the popularity of Joey Chestnut, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting websites have listed more prop bets than the women’s competition.

Men’s Winner

• Joey Chestnut (-1600)
• The Field (+700)

Men’s Head to Head Winner Spread

• Joey Chestnut -15.5 (-450)
• 2^nd Place +15.5 (+275)

Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner

• Over 73.5 (-130)
• Under 73.5 (-110)

Will Joey Chestnut Win? (MyBookie)

• Yes (-900)
• No (+500)

Total Hot Dogs by Chestnut at 5min

• Over 45.5 (-170)
• Under 45.5 (+130)

Total Hot Dogs by Chestnut at 1min

• Over 9.5 (-400)
• Under 9.5 (+250)

Men’s Head to Head

• Geoffrey Esper +2.5 (-145)
• Darron Breeden -2.5 (+105)

Men’s Head to Head

• Matt Stonie +1.5 (-150)
• Geoffrey Esper -1.5 (+110)

Will Joey Chestnut Win His 13^th Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Since Kobayashi’s falling out with Major League Eating, there hasn’t been anyone who can really push Chestnut to his limits. In 2015, Chestnut had a down year with 60 and was edged out by Matt Stonie’s 62. It was a shock to competitive eating fans around the world.

However, since his return to the top of this competition in 2016, nobody has come within 10 hot dogs of Chestnut. Last year, he destroyed the field as Chestnut won by 21 hot dogs.

In fact, after Chestnut suffered defeat in 2015, he has come back bigger and better than ever. Each year, he’s surpassing the 70 hot dog mark where nobody else has gone over 64 since Kobayashi ate 64.5 hot dogs in 2009, which was his last year competing in this contest.

Bottom line, there’s no real threat for Chestnut this year or in the foreseeable future. He’s the “Air Jordan” of competitive eating and will add to his unbreakable legacy this weekend.

Is Competitive Eater Joey Chestnut America’s Best Athlete?

🎙️ @SportsRadioWIP pic.twitter.com/0JkjdplqLY

— RADIO.COM Sports (@RDCSports) July 1, 2020

Unfortunately, there’s no value to Chestnut winning this competition. There’s better opportunities with other prop bets for Chestnut and the rest of the men’s competition.

However, just like with Miki Sudo, MyBookie has better odds in regards to taking Chestnut to win. MyBookie lists Chestnut at -900 whereas other sites like Bovada have him at -1600.

How Many Hot Dogs Will the Men’s Winner Eat?

The Over/Under is set at 73.5 hot dogs this year. This was the same total for last year’s contest as well. And, as we saw, Chestnut came in under this mark with 71 hot dogs.

For the 2020 contest, we’re basically examining whether or not Chestnut can tie or break his world record of 74 hot dogs. The legendary eater believes he can finish 75 hot dogs this July 4^th and possibly even 77.

With a temperature controlled environment, we might actually get to see Chestnut make history once again. It’s this factor that makes me want to lean towards the Over.

Chestnut won’t have to deal with the heat or the craziness of the live Coney Island crowds. He will be in a relaxing environment where he can focus on the rhythm that will make history.

I’m going with the Over on this one. I feel Chestnut will redeem himself from his 71 hot dog effort last year to at least tie his record of 74.

Men’s Head to Head Prop Bets

In addition to Over/Unders, outright winner, and other prop bets, we also have head to head wagers that could provide bettors with some value.

Joey Chestnut vs The Field

• Joey Chestnut -15.5 (-450)
• The Field +15.5 (+275)

Over the last four years, since Chestnut raised the bar to 70 or more hot dogs, he has averaged a margin of victory of 15 hot dogs over the second place finisher. As mentioned, last year Chestnut destroyed the field as he won by 21.

Since I believe Chestnut will eat 74 or more hot dogs that would mean someone has to eat at least 59 to stay within the 15.5 hot dog spread. I don’t see that happening. Last year, second place finisher Darron Breeden could only consume 50, which was his career best.

Since Matt Stonie won in 2015, he hasn’t consumed more than 53 hot dogs. I don’t see him hitting the 50 mark this year as he’s fallen below that mark for three straight contests.

In reality, unless Chestnut has a historically bad day, he will crush the field by 18 to 22 hot dogs on Saturday.

Geoffrey Esper vs Darron Breeden

• Geoffrey Esper +2.5 (-145)
• Darron Breeden -2.5 (+105)

Esper has been on the national stage since 2015 when he finished 7^th with 29.5 hot dogs. Since then, he’s improved each year:

• 2016 – 5^th place with 37.5 hot dogs
• 2017 – 4^th place with 44.5 hot dogs
• 2018 – 4^th place with 41 hot dogs
• 2019 – 3^rd place with 47 hot dogs

Last year was Esper’s best total as he set a career mark with 47 consumed hot dogs. However, he has yet to hit the 50 mark, which Breeden did in the 2019 competition.

Breeden entered the national scene in 2017 and finished 5^th with 38.5 hot dogs. He finished six dogs behind Esper. However, Breeden has gone on to beat Esper the last two years. In 2018, he defeated Esper 43 to 41.

Currently, Esper is ranked #2 overall and Breeden is ranked #4 overall with the MLE. Over the last two years, Breeden’s margin of victory over Esper has been exactly 2.5 hot dogs. I’m going with Breeden in this matchup.

I think Breeden is on the rise and has yet to hit his peak whereas Esper is plateauing in my opinion.

Matt Stonie vs Geoffrey Esper

• Matt Stonie +1.5 (-150)
• Geoffrey Esper -1.5 (+110)

Matt Stonie is the #3 ranked MLE competitive eater and the only man to dethrone Chestnut during his historic run. Unfortunately, Stonie has yet to offer any competition against Chestnut since his victory in 2015.

For Stonie, he’s gone downhill since his 62 hot dog mark of 2015, which was his career best. Since then, he’s finished with the following totals:

• 2016 – 2^nd place with 53 hot dogs
• 2017 – 3^rd place with 48 hot dogs
• 2018 – 5^th place with 40 hot dogs
• 2019 – 4^th place with 46 hot dogs

Stonie bounced back from his disappointing 2018 performance with a six dog improvement in 2019, but he’s still not even finishing in the Top 3.

Geoffrey Esper has beaten Stonie the last two years by an average margin of victory of 1 hot dog. Last year, Esper won 47 to 46 and in 2018 he won 41 to 40.

This year, I think Esper will beat Stonie by more than one and finish 3^rd overall. I believe Stonie will finish 4^th place and Breeden will finish 2^nd overall. It could be an exact repeat of the Top 4 finishers of 2019.

Joey Chestnut Prop Bets

Since there’s no value with Joey Chestnut’s odds to win the 2020 men’s hot dog competition, the following Chestnut prop bets are more mouthwatering:

Total Hot Dogs by Chestnut at 5 min. Mark

• Over 45.5 (-170)
• Under 45.5 (+130)

Let’s take a look at Chestnut’s last four performances to see what his hot dog totals were at the halfway point of each contest:

• 2019 – 45 hot dogs
• 2018 – 37 hot dogs
• 2017 – 46 hot dogs
• 2016 – 44 hot dogs

As you can see, Chestnut only surpassed the 45.5 mark on one occasion. Even in his record setting 74 total of 2018, Joey was well under 45.5 with just 38 hot dogs consumed. He’s averaging just 43 hot dogs in the first five minutes.

For this prop bet, the numbers point to Chestnut finishing under 45.5 hot dogs at the halfway point of the 2020 contest. Additionally, there’s great value with the Under. In fact, this is probably the best Chestnut wager out of all the available betting options due to the payout and the trends.

Total Hot Dogs by Chestnut in the First Minute

• Over 9.5 (-400)
• Under 9.5 (+250)

Since 2016, when Chestnut took his hot dog eating skills to another level, he’s finished with the following totals in the first minute of each contest:

• 2019 – 10 hot dogs
• 2018 – 8 hot dogs
• 2017 – 10 hot dogs
• 2016 – 13 hot dogs

In three out of the last four years, Chestnut has gone over 9.5 hot dogs within the first minute. During this span, he’s averaging 10.25 hot dogs within the first minute of the contest.

Although there’s no value with the Over, the data shows us that Chestnut is a double digit dog consumer in 60 seconds or less. I expect him to come out and eat at least 10 hot dogs in the first minute of Saturday’s competition.

2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Prop Bets

In addition to the hot dog wagers listed above, online betting sites are also offering the following prop bets for the 2020 Hot Dog Eating Contest:

Will There Be A Recount?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-1000)

Will There Be An Eat-Off?

• Yes (+750)
• No (-2500)

Will A Contestant Be Interrupted By PETA During The Contest?

• Yes (+800)
• No (-2500)

Will There Be a Reversal of Fortune?

• Yes (+700)
• No (-1500)

Will There Be a Recount?

• Yes (+550)
• No (-1000)

With digital scoring and modern technology, I don’t see there being any recounts needed. In fact, I can’t imagine there being any scoring issues with the modified fields of only five participants in each competition.

Furthermore, an indoor environment will allow for more camera angles and close-ups which should also improve the scoring accuracy. Although there’s no value in this one, you can be confident with the “No” option.

Will There Be an Eat-Off?

• Yes (+750)
• No (-2500)

The last eat-off was in 2008 during the historic battle between Kobayashi and Chestnut. Joey would go on to win that contest and beat his rival for the second straight year. Reportedly, there was another eat-off in 1980, but the details are a bit fuzzy on that one.

With that said, there’s no reason to think that either competition will require an eat-off. Chestnut will dominate the field. Even with a bad performance, he should still win by 10 or more hot dogs. Simply put, there’s no competition.

On the women’s side, Sudo has more competition than Chestnut does, but she’s comfortably defeated the field for six straight years. She should win by at least five or more hot dogs this year.

Will a Contestant Be Interrupted by PETA During the Contest?

• Yes (+800)
• No (-2500)

This might seem like a strange prop bet for some of you, but there is merit to it. In 2016, PETA protestors disrupted the contest by pouring fake blood on various competitors. PETA officially denied involvement, but many still attribute the protest to them.

Since then, there haven’t been any other protests or disruptions. This year, the contest will be in an undisclosed indoor environment, so there’s no possible way that PETA protestors can interrupt the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest.

Will There Be a Reversal of Fortune?

• Yes (+700)
• No (-1500)

In competitive eating, a “reversal of fortune” refers to when a contestant is caught vomiting. According to the MLE rules, regurgitation results in an automatic disqualification.

In 2007, Kobayashi was apparently seen on TV having a reversal of fortune. However, the judges didn’t agree and he was able to finish the contest. Yet, that was the first year that Chestnut won, so it didn’t really have an impact on the competition.

In 2008, Kobayashi apparently had another reversal of fortune. This time it wasn’t caught on camera. However, former hot dog contest judge Ken Hoffman gave an account of the event:

“It wasn’t all glory during my hot dog judging career. There was the time I noticed Kobayashi experiencing a “reversal of fortune” (use your imagination) into his 64-ounce Big Gulp. That was bad enough, but then he destroyed the evidence with a big gulp.”

This year, with air condition and less overall competitors, I don’t see there being any vomiting going on. As graphic and compelling as it would be for the ratings, the “no” option is the safe bet.

Final Thoughts on the 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

Since ESPN started televising this event, I haven’t missed a year of it. From the great Kobayashi to the living legend Joey Chestnut, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed the annual 10 minutes of frank frenzy each year.

The 2020 Nathan’s Hot Dog Contest will be as exciting as usual even if there were some changes made to the format. We will be watching Chestnut and Sudo extend their dominance over the sport and possibly even see records broken.

As we dip the last bun into a cup of water and close out this ballpark frank betting preview, I’ll leave you with the following stats on just how much Joey Chestnut consumes on his annual trip to Coney Island:

• Over 22,000 calories
• 1,330 grams of fat
• Nearly 450 grams of saturated fat
• 70+ grams of trans fat
• 1,850 grams of carbohydrates
• Over 800 grams of protein
• Over 2,600 grams of cholesterol
• Over 54,000 grams of sodium