2020 NBA Draft Props: How Many International Prospects Will Be Top-10?

The NBA draft is set to take place on Wednesday. While November 18 would be a routine game night around the NBA in a normal year, 2020 has been far from a normal year. This year, it’s draft night. With the regular season slated to get underway on December 22, this year’s crop of rookies will only have a little over a month to try and acclimate to the rigors of the NBA before they’re thrust into live game action.

While this time of the year is usually rife with basketball betting opportunities, this year you’ll have to settle for some NBA draft props. Basketball betting sites have been keeping tabs on the draft for over a year now, and you have no shortage of wagering options if you’re interested in making a little money on the side.

NBA betting sites have a slew of draft-specific props available ahead of Wednesday’s big event. Let’s dig for some betting value, shall we?

Total Number of Duke Players Taken in First Round

• Over 1.5 (-120)
• Under 1.5 (-120)

You’d need several hands to be able to count all of the Duke players that have been drafted in the first round over the years. This year’s group of draft-eligible Blue Devils is lacking, however. There is no can’t-miss Duke alum in the 2020 draft class, which is rather unusual. Last year, three Duke players (Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish) were taken in the top-10.

16 Duke players have gone in the first round in the last seven years alone. This year, they’ll be lucky to have one taken in the top-30. Tre Jones, Vernon Carey Jr., and Cassius Stanley are all a part of this year’s class, but none of the three will be a lottery pick.

Jones is the 30th-ranked prospect in the pool, according to ESPN’s rankings. The younger brother of Tyus Jones improved his three-point stroke as a sophomore last season, but he’s a bit of a tweener. At 6’3″, he’s a bit small to play off-guard, but he didn’t spend much time manning the point during his time in college, either.

As of now, Jones looks like the most likely Dukie to go in the first round. Carey has dropped some weight and shown some potential as a pick-and-pop big, but he looks like a bit of a reach in the first round at this point. Stanley is a clear second-rounder.

Because Jones isn’t exactly a clear-cut first-rounder himself, I think the under on 1.5 Blue Devils going in the top-30 looks like the smart bet here at -120.

Total Number of Florida State Players Taken in First Round

• Over 2 (-145)
• Under 2 (+105)

We don’t normally think of Florida State as a basketball powerhouse, but we may well see a pair of Seminoles go in the lottery this year. Swingman Patrick Williams has generated plenty of buzz for his potential on the defensive end of the floor, and some mock drafts have him going as high as sixth overall to Atlanta. Devin Vassell is another swingman with a solid defensive reputation along with excellent shooting touch from beyond the arc.

It’s a lock that both of these guys go in the first round. The real drama lies in whether any of their teammates also get the call in the top-30. At this point, that looks pretty unlikely. Guard Trent Forrest is the only other player garnering much attention, but I have not yet found a single mock draft that has him going in the first round.

At this point, Forrest isn’t even a guarantee to be drafted at all. A team will happily pluck him off the scrap heap as a free agent if he doesn’t hear his name called, but we’re almost surely looking at exactly two Seminoles coming off the board in round one. With the over/under set at exactly two, we really don’t have any good options here.

If BetOnline.ag drops that number to 1.5 between now and draft night, feel free to smash that over. Otherwise, this looks like a straight push.

Total Number of International Players Taken in Top-10

• Over 3.5 (+400)
• Under 3.5 (-700)

Deni Avdija is surely going to go in the top-10. The Israeli swingman has the size (6’10”) and offensive repertoire every team wants these days, and his positional versatility is what has scouts drooling over his potential. Avdija has quite a bit of experience at the professional level in Europe, so the 19-year-old is understandably one of the hottest commodities heading into the draft.

Does LaMelo Ball count as an international player? He’s an American, but he most recently played professionally in Australia. Ball may well be taken first overall in this draft, so he’s certainly not falling below No. 10. For the purposes of this bet, I’m assuming LaMelo is labeled as an international prospect, so we have two surefire bets to go in the top-10.

After that, the only other international prospect with the potential to go in the top-10 is Killian Hayes, a French guard. Hayes goes anywhere between No. 4 and No. 12 in most mock drafts. While he’s not a lock to crack the top-10, the odds are favorable enough.

As you can see, though, the juice (-700) heavily favors fewer than four international draftees going in the top-10. Once you get past Avdija, Ball, and Hayes, the next-most likely options are Aleksej Pokusevski, Leandro Bolmaro, Theo Maledon, or RJ Hampton. None of these guys is going in the top-10 unless a team reaches in a big way.

Total Number of Michigan State Players Taken in First Round

• Over 1.5 (+115)
• Under 1.5 (-155)

Michigan State is another blue blood type of college basketball program that seems to be headed for a down year in terms of NBA draft representation. Cassius Winston (29) and Xavier Tillman (32) are the only Spartans ranked inside ESPN’s rankings of the draft’s 100 best prospects.

Both guys are borderline first-rounders, per the rankings. Winston is an experienced, do-it-all type of point guard that could step in and help a team as a rotation role player right away. His athleticism is likely the main reason he’ll slide down draft boards, but we have seen plenty of point guards enjoy nice careers for themselves even without having 40-inch verticals.

Tillman is another big man in the Draymond Green type of mold. He’s a bit small to play center at 6’8″ and 245 pounds, but he’s nimble enough to guard multiple positions in the frontcourt. That lack of height may hurt his chances of cracking the first round, but he’ll surely hear his name called at some point on Wednesday night.

These guys will likely be taken in the same part of the draft, whether it’s at the end of the first round or the beginning of the second. Thanks to the uncertainty, I think a flier on the over on 1.5 first-rounders from Michigan State is viable at the current +115 odds. It wouldn’t be a major shock to see both Winston and Tillman go in the first, so take advantage of the plus-money value.

Total Number of Arizona Players Taken in First Round

• Over 1.5 (-145)
• Under 1.5 (+105)

It’s been quite a while since Arizona has been relevant in the national title picture, but the Wildcats have still produced a fair number of quality NBA products over the years. This year, there seems to be a very real possibility that we see three Wildcats go before the end of the first round.

Swingman Josh Green seems to be the best prospect of the group. The 6’6″ Australia native projects to be a solid 3-and-D type at the next level. The athleticism is there, and he has shown promise as a perimeter shooter. Green isn’t a lock to go in the first round, but it would be a surprise if he didn’t land somewhere in the 20s.

Point guard Nico Mannion and big man Zeke Nnaji are the other names we could hear go in the first round. Nnaji may bring some question marks on the defensive end, but teams always seem to talk themselves into the promise of athletic bigs. His lack of shot-blocking in college is strange considering his size and physical tools, but he may well sneak into the end of the first round.

Mannion wasn’t particularly efficient last season, but he has shown promise as a scorer as a lead guard. I’ve seen Mannion going anywhere from 25 to 45 in various mock drafts, so he’s a bit of a wild card. Still, with as many as three guys possibly going in the first round, the over on 1.5 looks to be a fairly safe bet here. The -145 odds are certainly attackable, too.