Unless you were hiding in your basement this week, you certainly saw all of the fireworks that took place on the debate stage between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden. Regardless of who you think walked away the victor, sports bettors clearly moved significant money into one camp.
In this installment of our regular look at the U.S. presidential betting odds, we’ve got a lot to cover. We’ll look at how the presidential betting lines have shifted, what may have caused the shift, what that means for bettors, and what we’re watching for the next week. Oh, and don’t worry, we’re still going to update you on Kanye West’s odds of winning the election because it’s 2020 and why not.
Donald Trump (+120)
- Previous Odds Last Week: (+110)
According to betting sites offering odds on the US Presidential election, the chances of winning for President Donald Trump just got worse on the heels of his debate showdown with Joe Biden. Last week, President Trump’s odds were (+110), which means bettors feel he has a 47.6% chance of winning the election. Today, the President became a slightly larger underdog with his odds moving to (+120). When you convert this to the implied odds, it shows a 45.5% chance of winning the election.
Joe Biden (-140)
- Previous Odds Last Week: (-130)
For Joe Biden, sports bettors are showing him a lot more confidence post-debate. Last week, his odds were (-130) but have shifted to (-140) this week. What this means is that his implied odds of winning moved from 56.5% to 58.3%, according to sports bettors.
Does this mean the former Vice President is actually more likely to win the election? It’s hard to say. What we can tell, though, is that big-money sports bettors (or a lot of smaller bettors) think that Joe Biden took a big step in the right direction this week. And they felt strong enough about this to put their money on the line to back up the feeling.
Check out how the odds have changed from previous weeks below:
What Could Change the Odds This Week
- Continued Reactions to the Debate – As the debate was just yesterday, many sports bettors may not have made their moves based on the happenings. Could we continue to see the odds slide in Joe Biden’s favor? If they slide too far, will there be an opportunity to get a great value on the President? It’s all something we’re watching this week.
- The Vice Presidential Debate – Round two on the debate stage is next Tuesday between the current Vice President Mike Pence and VP hopeful Kamala Harris. While not as high profile as the presidential debate, it’s still something we’re watching that could have a big effect on how bettors move.
- Russia – Former Director of the FBI James Comey is testifying this week on the Russia investigation brought on by the Obama administration during the last election. While the early testimony has been somewhat uneventful, there’s always the possibility of bombshells coming out. If that happens, will we see the President’s odds rebound back closer to even? We’ll have to wait and see.
- Line Stability – As many bettors already have made their wagers, we expect line movement to be less noticeable unless there are major happenings. What this means is that in the coming weeks, smaller line movements could be more important than they would have been last month. The majority of the money coming in now is probably more from the general public and less from institutional bettors unless they’ve been waiting for a specific situation and time.
Changes to 2020 Election Prop Bets We’re Tracking
- Sadly, most political betting sites have dropped betting odds on Kanye West winning the election. We know you’re bummed, but we have to be the bearers of bad news sometimes.
- Odds on battleground states have also been pulled as we get less than about a month away from the election. If you got your bets in already, great. If not, your options are now limited to betting on the winning candidate, the winning party, and whether or not a candidate will drop out.
- Speaking of candidates dropping out before November 1st, the odds on Donald Trump moved back to (+850) from (+900) this week. This is where the odds were two weeks ago. For Joe Biden, the odds moved from (+550) to (+475), showing that some sports betters think it may be a little more likely that the candidate drops out before the 1st of November. The implied odds for Joe Biden last week showed a 15.4% chance he drops out and this week reflects a slightly higher 17.4% chance.
Gary Stone
Gary writes about political and entertainment betting and keeps an eye on serious legislative matters and pop culture for a living. But as someone who enjoys media consumption as much as the next person, Gary proclaims that writing and gambling his way out of debt is truly an entertaining way to live life. …
