It’s been an eventful week in the world of politics in America. And while the Presidential election was slightly overshadowed by the Supreme Court nomination hearings, that didn’t slow down both campaigns looking to push their candidate over the finish line.
As always, looking at the Presidential election betting odds is an interesting way to look at country-wide trends and for you to make some money if you think the oddsmakers and other bettors have it wrong. For bettors looking to cash in on a Joe Biden victory, the odds are getting less attractive, but the percentage chance of a win is increasing. On the other side of the aisle, the election betting odds on President Donald Trump are getting much more attractive for people who think the chants of “four more years” are going to ring true.
Let’s take a look at how the odds have changed, what could affect the US Presidential election betting odds this week, and talk a few tips for people who might be new to betting on the election outcome.
Donald Trump (+160)
- Previous Odds Last Week: (+145)
It’s starting to become a consistent trend of more money pouring in on Joe Biden and less on President Donald Trump. The odds this week shifted from (+145) to (+160) on the President, indicating that he’s now a bigger underdog to win the election (at least according to the betting). When you break these odds down into implied probabilities, this signals a shift from a 40.8% favorite to win to a 38.5% to win.
Should you bet on the President to win?
Well, if you think that he has a better than 38.5% chance to win the election, it’s a bet that has value for you. If you think these percentage chances are accurate or that he has an even lower chance of winning the election, it’s a bet you don’t make.
Joe Biden (-200)
- Previous Odds Last Week: (-175)
As you can already infer, when President Trump’s odds get worse, Joe Biden’s odds get better. This week, the former Vice President odds shifted from (-175) to (-200). This signals that Biden is now a bigger favorite to win the election as the odds are concerned. The implied probability shift moved from a 63.6% favorite to win to a 66.7% favorite to win.
An Important Disclaimer and Some US Presidential Election Betting Tips
As we get closer to the election, more and more people are putting their money where their mouth is when it comes to picking which candidate is going to win the election. What we wanted to do is drop a few important disclaimers and betting tips to be aware of when making your picks.
- The Odds are Not a Poll – It’s important that you don’t take the betting odds as a poll. The betting odds merely show you how people around the world are betting on the election. The sportsbooks want an even amount of money on each candidate so that they can pay the winners with the loser’s money and scrape a little off the top as profit. While betting odds can be a unique way to look for trend shifts, it’s not always indicative of what’s going to happen. This is important to note because it can create opportunities for value when the betting public has it all wrong.
- Bet With Your Mind – There’s a common temptation that comes with betting where you’ll feel the urge to bet on what you want to happen instead of what you think is really going to happen. While this feels extra awesome when you win, you can feel extra silly when you lose and realize you made an emotional bet. Put aside what you want to happen and even who you’re voting for when betting on the Presidential election.
- Shop Betting Odds – Different online sportsbooks have different odds on the exact same wager. Remember how we mentioned that sportsbooks want to have the right amount of money on each side of the bet so they can win no matter what happens? This dance is done internally—not industry-wide. This means you may be able to get better odds on each candidate by choosing to wager at a different sportsbook.
Speaking of shopping betting odds, check out how these odds have changed week to week leading up to this point.
What Could Change the Election Odds This Week
- The President’s Recovery – It looks like all signs are pointing to the President making a full recovery from contracting COVID-19. Is this something that’s going to play positively with the public and with bettors? It’s certainly good news for the Trump camp and something that bettors should be watching.
- The Supreme Court Hearings – While the outcome of the hearing doesn’t have a direct effect on the election (except in rare and unique circumstances), the initial sessions have been highly politicized. Many of the senators, including VP-hopeful Kamala Harris, are using their time to make political statements about the election. Is this going to sway any undecided voters? Does the success or the failure of this nomination play into the public’s minds? Is Joe Biden going to pack the courts if Amy Coney Barret is confirmed? Will he ever answer that question? All of these are important questions to consider before making a bet on the election.
- The Status of the Next Presidential Debate – While the next scheduled debate doesn’t fall within this week, it’s scheduled for Oct. 22nd, next Thursday. Is the debate going to happen? Does that have an effect on the outcome of the election? Will bettors give the edge one way or the other? If you’re betting on the Presidential election, you need to have an answer to these questions.
Gary Stone
Gary writes about political and entertainment betting and keeps an eye on serious legislative matters and pop culture for a living. But as someone who enjoys media consumption as much as the next person, Gary proclaims that writing and gambling his way out of debt is truly an entertaining way to live life. …
