Each Sunday from September through January, tens of millions of dollars are wagered on the NFL and college football. America’s favorite game to watch (sorry baseball, it’s getting hard to make the ‘pastime’ argument these days) is also America’s favorite game to bet.
The unfortunate reality is that as good as fans are at watching it, they’re equally bad at betting it, and the sportsbooks are well of this fact. It’ll never be easy to win big betting on football, but if you avoid these gambling “traps, you’ll have a better chance.
1 – Moneyline Favorite
As both sports fans and bettors, most people love nothing more than an easy win, and that’s exactly the problem. The fact is, when you start paying to have a better chance to win, the potential cost of your decisions can add up quickly.
One such bet that often gets utilized by the risk-averse is the moneyline favorite. Now, not all moneyline favorite bets are created equal and that should be noted. For example, taking the Packers at -125 is not the same as taking the Chiefs -450. However, I wouldn’t recommend either play, and I’ll explain why.
When you risk a lot to win a little, you’re really just risking a lot. Winning any bet is hard enough in and of itself, and if you’re losing a large amount of money in one bet, your strategy is entirely unsustainable. Think about it this way – if you lose that $450 in the bet described above, now you have to win 4 bets at -110 to get back to where you started, and even that won’t get you all the way there.
You might be thinking “What about moneyline favorites when it’s a little more reasonable, like -125 to -150?” Still, my answer would be that it’s better to stay away.
The reason I still wouldn’t take a moneyline favorite bet at -125 is because you’re still making a bet that forces you to risk too much. Think of it this way:
If a team is at -125 on the moneyline, they’re not going to be a heavy favorite when looking at the spread. More than likely, to take the same team at -110 or -105 you’d only have to give about three points. If you take the moneyline, you’re essentially saying you think that your team is going to win, but by less than three – a tough prediction to get right by any standards.
The bottom line is that if a team is a heavy favorite, moneyline is simply too risky. If a team isn’t a heavy favorite and the game could go either way, there are better betting options out there, most notably the spread.
2 – Parlays
Who doesn’t love a good parlay bet? Even the most prudent bettors can’t deny that those wild payout numbers are just too enticing to pass up all the time. With that being said, at the end of the day they’re just not a part of a sustainable betting strategy.
If there’s a theme of this article, it’s that winning one bet is hard enough, winning two bets more than you lose is even more challenging, and anything on top of that is simply having a great day. If you’re regularly betting parlays, that is to say one loss means all your bets are a loss, it’s simply too hard to win with any type of consistency.
Now, I won’t go as far as to say you should remove parlays from your life entirely. However, it’s necessary to shift the way you think about them.
For Example:
I often use in reference to parlays is the idea of buying a scratch-off ticket at the local gas station or convenience store. When you buy it, you’re acknowledging that there’s a very real chance it could be considered throwing money away. But, it’s a small amount of money and the potential winnings are significant.
So, you take the chance and let things fall where they may.
I would offer this same approach to making parlay bets. Go for it all (meaning 5 legs or more) and risk only a small amount of money. If you put $10 down on a 5-leg parlay each week, just having the chance at a $250 win for your low-risk bet is worth the price of admission.
Where parlays can get you in trouble is when you try to risk too much because you’re looking for a massive payout. Don’t get greedy – use parlays as the novelty bet they were always meant to be.
3 – Ranked Underdog vs. Unranked Favorite
As the title of the article suggests, real money sportsbooks are always looking for ways to “trap” bettors into looking for easy wins. The reason it’s so hard for bettors to recognize this and avoid falling into the trap? Well, generally-speaking, people are risk-averse (yes, this is a nice way of saying scared).
Nearly every weekend in college football features one of these tricky matchups – the unranked favorite vs. the ranked underdog. When you look at it, your initial inclination is going to be to hammer the ranked underdog – I mean, one’s ranked, one’s not – the ranked team has to be better, and they’re getting points?!
Unfortunately, you should be thinking the opposite. In my opinion, another reason it’s so hard to wrap your mind around taking an unranked favorite is the fear of looking back and realizing that you wasted money making a bad bet.
Another factor to consider when looking at these types of matchups is the betting markets. Here’s an example:
If a team ranked #23 against opens up as a 2-point underdog against an unranked team, theoretically, generally-uninformed bettors will take the ranked underdog. The action placed on the ranked team will be so significant that the spread will shift, and the unranked team will get even more points than they had when the odds opened up. This means you’re getting an even better deal than the original proposition.
These types of bets should actually be looked at as the perfect time to hammer the favorite (the unranked favorite). The data is overwhelming in support of the unranked team in these scenarios and the cognitive dissonance is often the only thing standing in the way.
Once you bet on enough of these games, you’ll start to recognize the pattern for yourself. In fact, once you bet on enough of these games, you’re going to start circling them as your favorite bet of the day.
4 – College Games with Big Spreads
With more than 100 Division 1 college football teams, there are bound to be some matchups that are, quite frankly, not a fair fight. When Alabama or Clemson plays a directional school (or even some of the teams at the bottom of their respective conferences) the spread numbers can be strikingly big.
In my opinion, there are several reasons why it’s in your best interest to lay off betting on these games, regardless of which side you take. The fact of the matter is that when you need 35+ points to cover, the number of variables that come into play are too much to overcome.
Think about it – if a top-tier college team is about by more than 30 points heading into the fourth (or even the third) quarter, there’s a real possibility that the second stringers are going to get some more playing time throughout the rest of the game. Will this change the outcome of the bet? It’s impossible to know.
When teams take their foot off the gas both offensively and defensively, it’s too hard to predict the outcome. In college football there are endless games to bet on during any given Saturday – just stick to the ones where the spread is somewhat reasonable. Otherwise, you’re simply rolling the dice. Not to mention, these games aren’t much fun to watch anyway.
Conclusion
The main theme to remember here is that when you bet, if you’re following the same patterns as the public, your strategy is following exactly what the sportsbooks want. The public, as a single entity, generally loses money – how else would betting be so profitable for the house?
Don’t be afraid to take on extra risk. In many cases, when it feels like you’re taking on more risk you’re actually doing the opposite of what the sportsbook expects. This usually means good things for your bankroll.
Michael Stevens
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …
