5 NBA Betting Strategies You Might Be Overlooking

When it comes to betting on teams during the regular season, the NBA is about as difficult as it gets in pro sports…for a number of different reasons.

The inconsistent performances, unexpected rest days, and a range of other factors make the league a challenge to predict on a regular basis. With that being said, there are some “hacks” to help you improve your strategy and add to your bankroll.

In this article, I’ll explain 5 alternative ways to bet the NBA that you probably haven’t considered previously.

1 – Halves

Predicting the outcome of an entire game is obviously a challenge, but breaking it down into to two, more manageable parts makes things a little bit easier.

Instead of trying to bet on the game as a whole, bet on the outcomes of the first and second halves separately.

The best part? Several different options exist when betting a game in this way.

First, the most popular form of betting when it comes to halves is the same as it is for this wagering on the full game – the spread. The same challenges exist when trying to predict the spread on a half to half basis as when trying to pick it accurately for the full game, so for that reason I typically go another route.

My personal favorite way to bet on halves is playing totals. The reason I prefer playing the over/under instead of the spread is because it’s easier to predict the pace of the game rather than which team will jump out ahead early.

2 – Player Props

I know, I know – prop bets are generally frowned upon by those who understand the ins and outs of sports betting. With that being said, the NBA player props generally provide more value than the NFL prop bet options.

When it comes to the specific bets I’ve had the most success with, I tend to focus on points rather than assists and/or rebounds. To add to that, in my experience it’s much easier to predict the scoring numbers for the second-best player on a team.

Nearly all NBA teams have a defined first and second option when it comes to which players are responsible for scoring. The online NBA sportsbooks know that the public is going to be more inclined to bet the over for the top scoring option. This means that there’s an opportunity to capitalize in other areas where the house won’t receive as much action.

Although this strategy takes a little more leg work, if you’re able to find a scenario where the best player on a team is coming off a high-scoring game, the following game is the best time to bet the “over” on the second-best option.

When a player has a huge night scoring, they usually gain more defensive attention in the next game. Not only does that mean they’ll be more likely to score less than the prop total, but it also means that the second scoring option will be the beneficiary of the defense’s increased attention on the number one guy.

Although there might not be a hard-and-fast rule to apply when looking at player scoring props, there are several different indicators to use that can help guide you in the right direction. If you put in the time and do the research, you can turn this into a major part of your NBA betting strategy.

3 – Live Betting

The NBA has a strangely consistent theme when it comes to regular season games. This is especially true during mismatches where one team is clearly superior to their opponent.

The first quarter of an NBA game is without question the most predictable. Players are trying to find their rhythm on the offensive end which gives underdogs a great opportunity to jump out to an early lead. Not to mention, the best teams in the league frequently start “turning it on” later in the game while coasting during the first half.

The concept above is one of the best predictors for betting on what happens next in the game. Obviously, shooting is the most important stat in the book.  A team might find itself down at halftime because of a below-average performance, but somewhat counterintuitively, it’s a good idea to live bet on the losing team if the score is still close.

If a team is shooting well below their capabilities but is still in the game, it should tell you that a comeback is imminent. Of course there will be games when the shooting is off for the entire night, but more often than not, things will finish up close to average when it comes to shooting percentage.

Regardless of the sport, live betting on the favorite when they get down early in the game is a high-value play. The only downside is you have to be closely playing attention to the action in order to take advantage of the opportunity.

4 – Moneyline

Speaking of value, in my opinion the moneyline is one of the most under-used tools when betting on the NBA. When there’s a matchup between two relatively even teams (think the “middle” 20 teams in the league), it’s essentially a toss-up for who will win.

The huge degree of variability benefits the underdog. This might be a slight oversimplification, but here’s an analogy to explain the theory: Imagine you’re betting on a coin flip. The only trick here is that the odds aren’t 50-50. In this example, your odds are +135 for heads, and -120 for tails. A smart bettor would take the higher value odds every time.

I recognize that an NBA game is not a coin flip, which has perfectly even odds for either side. However, when to middle-of-the-pack NBA teams meet up during the regular season, it’s close to a 50-50 proposition when you consider the endless variables that are ever present during the NBA’s regular season.

This concept is just another reason why it’s important to always remember sports betting isn’t about winning as many bets as possible – it’s about winning as much money as possible. The public is generally risk averse, and everyone knows the public’s reputation when it comes to winning money betting on sports.

If you’re hovering around 50% for your overall win rate betting on the spread, it might be time to switch up your strategy to something that puts a higher emphasis on value. Just as in business or investing, risk-taking is a necessity if you want to have sustained success. As they say, fortune favors the bold.

5 – NBA Finals Futures

Speaking of value…if you haven’t taken a look at the futures odds, it’s time to do yourself a favor and get acquainted.

Each season, it becomes clear that there are only a handful of teams who have a shot at winning the title (and in some years it’s less than that). In most cases, you’ll be able to package together several different teams and still come out ahead if one of them takes home the title.

Obviously the odds will change from year to year, but in just about every season you’ll find that even the favorite has favorable numbers for bettors.

To take things a step further, if you packaged the third-highest favorite to win the title for just $50, you’d stand to win $300 as the LA Clippers began the season as a +600 underdog. For those keeping track at home, that means you could bet on the Lakers, Nets, or Clippers to win the Finals, and make money if one of them comes through.

It should be noted that whether or not a certain futures bet is a good play all comes down to value. If the odds are there, it’s certainly something you should be taking advantage of before or during the season.

Conclusion

The NBA is a challenge for sports bettors who rely on the spread, but there are more opportunities to be successful if you get creative.

Regardless of which plays you prefer to make, remember that over the course of a long 82-game season, betting for value is going to be rewarded in the end. Consider these betting options the next time you log into your sportsbook and your bankroll will thank you.