5 Tips for Betting on NFL Games by Quarter

For some, waiting until the end of the game to know if they’ve won or lost a bet just doesn’t cut it. Others believe that they simply have a better feel for predicting the action when you break it down into smaller segments.

Whatever the reason, betting on single quarters during NFL games has grown in popularity over the past few years. While some have enjoyed tremendous success, others have watched their bankroll slowly slip away during four short quarters.

In this article, I’ll lay out the tips you need to know in order to capitalize on quarter-by-quarter bets.

1 – Always Consider the Moneyline

The vast majority of quarter bets will have a small point spread. It makes sense. You aren’t going to get much action on a favorite if they have to give up 10 points in a single quarter. For this reason, spreads are often low, coming in under a touchdown in most cases.

With the spread number that usually hovers around 1.5 to 4.5, why not look at taking the moneyline underdog instead?

It might be difficult to consistently win on underdog moneyline bets when looking at games as a whole, but when you break them down, even bad teams can put together a solid quarter. If the value is there, it’s in your best interest to take advantage of it.

In all cases, be hesitant about taking any heavy favorites. A bet that requires you to risk much more than you stand to gain can be dangerous, especially with something as unpredictable as one quarter of a football game.

Always look at the odds closely and don’t take bets that feel overpriced.

2 – Look at Different Sportsbooks

You should be doing this before you a bet of any kind, but this step is often overlooked by most bettors.

Having just one sportsbook that you utilize with regularity could mean that you’re missing out on getting better odds somewhere else.

Just like a store that sells goods, sportsbooks can raise and lower their prices in order to get customers to behave in a way that’s most beneficial. For example, if one sportsbook is receiving heavy action on a certain team, that could cause the line to move in a way that doesn’t happen on another sportsbook.

If the odds vary when looking at a full game, the differences are even more noticeable when looking at individual quarters. Due to the fact it happens so fast, sportsbooks aren’t sitting there for a week putting together the perfect line. This variability can be beneficial to gamblers.

I’m not suggesting that it’s necessary to look at 10 different websites or apps before making a decision, but in the intermission between quarters, look over two or three and find the best odds for the play you were considering making.

The differences might seem insignificant at the time. But if you’re betting on quarters, meaning placing a higher volume of bets, it truly does add up over the course of a season or even just that week.

3 – Think Critically

I know, I know. This sounds basic, obvious, and unhelpful, but hear me out. Due to the short window of time you actually have to evaluate your options and make a play, it can be easy to just rely on things continuing as they were the previous quarter. Don’t make this mistake.

Look at things such as who has the ball, where they have it on the field, and whether or not they’ve been able to move the football, even if they haven’t been scoring.

Variables such as injuries in previous quarters and overall momentum can play a factor as well. In addition, consider the coaching on each side, and if one team has the upper hand in the battle for in-game adjustments.

Simply put, don’t just bet based on “feel.” Everyone can have their own reasons for making a certain play. But just make sure you do, in fact, have some reasons beyond your instinct.

4 – Consider All Plays

In the first section, I suggested that it could be beneficial to look beyond point spreads and go after the moneyline odds when betting on quarters in NFL games. In this section, I’ll go a step further and explore the other options you have at your disposal.

One of the most popular plays on a quarter-by-quarter basis is the total number of points that will be scored in the period. This could be a viable option for gamblers who are struggling to choose a particular side, but still have a read on the action and how it might progress over the following 15 minutes.

Step one of making a total number bet should be looking over your various real money sportsbook options to see if one has an over/under number that you feel most confident about. Sometimes, they’ll all be the same or within a half-point, but the times when it differs is what makes it worth looking at before each play.

If you do decide to make a bet on the total number, make sure the odds are reasonable. For example, some sportsbooks will place -120 odds on either the over or under, which should be a red flag. Simply put, if you have to risk $120 to win $100 on what essentially amounts to a coin flip (in that the bet could easily go either way), it’s probably not worth it.

Another option that some, but not all, sportsbooks offer are prop bets. Whether it’s a quarterback’s over/under passing yards in a quarter, odds on whether or not a specific player will score a touchdown, or any other of the endless options that you can find, see if one sticks out as having good value.

5 – Use Halftime to Your Advantage

Because the breaks between the first and second, as well as the third and fourth, quarter are so brief, it can be hard to come to a well-researched conclusion. For this reason, the third quarter provides the best opportunity for bettors to make an educated play.

Certain teams, often due to the coaching staff, seem to have developed a tendency to come out of the locker room strong. After having some time to revisit game plans and with the new information they have gained in the first half, devise new strategies accordingly, it’s not surprising that the better the coach, the better the team is in the third quarter.

On the other side of the equation, there are teams who struggle in the coaching department. They can come out of the locker room without the same level of preparation as their opponent.

Finally, it’s always crucial to consider how the “better” team performed in the first half. If, for example, a top team in the league is losing or tied with a lesser opponent, human nature kicks in. This means that the lesser team might be feeling good about how the game is going and not come out with the same level of desperation as a good team who is trying to avoid an upset.

Without question, these are not necessarily hard and fast rules that apply in every situation, but should be considered. As always, balance what you know (and your opinions) against the odds. If the value is right, make the bet. It’s okay to lay off if the numbers just don’t add up for you.

Conclusion

Live betting on NFL games on a quarter-by-quarter basis can be extremely profitable if you do it right, but it does require concentration. Don’t try to make live-bet plays if you’re simply following along on a scores app or the bottom line ticker on TV. You need to be watching these games closely!

I’m not suggesting the types of bets described in this article should be the main part of your strategy. But if you’re struggling with betting on games as a whole, give it a shot and see if you have success!