The political news cycle in the United States doesn’t sleep these days. It seems as though Donald Trump’s presidency has put a new spotlight on the way political news is covered in the US. With a seemingly endless deluge of new scandals and other stories coming out every single day, following the American political scene can be a whirlwind these days.
There are a lot of moving parts involved with American politics, which can make betting on political outcomes incredibly difficult. Look no further than 2016, when Hillary Clinton was a massive betting favorite to become the first woman to be elected to the highest individual post in the country. Clinton’s long political career seemed to be leading to that one crowning achievement, and it didn’t hurt that many didn’t take her opponent, Donald Trump, very seriously.
Of course, we know how that played out.
Trump wound up staging one of the biggest political upsets we have ever seen, which turned online sportsbooks upside-down. Ladbrokes, a UK sportsbook, listed Trump at 200-to-1 to win the 2016 election in June of 2015. Nearly $245 million was bet on the US presidential election in the UK that year, and this year’s election is estimated to be the biggest political betting event in history.
So, what should you know before you place your first bet on American politics? Here are five tips to help you become a better political bettor ahead of the 2020 elections.
1. Shop for Election Betting Lines
This advice applies to any form of betting. Shopping for lines is a very useful skill for bettors of all kinds. Because there are so many online betting sites nowadays, you should have no trouble finding discrepancies in betting odds from site-to-site.
As a result, one site may offer you far better value on a certain outcome than another site.
Political betting is no exception. For example, BetOnline currently has Joe Biden as a -200 favorite to beat Trump in the presidential race, with Trump listed at +175. MyBookie, on the other hand, has Biden at -170 with Trump at +130.
That may not sound like a huge difference, but it is. Placing a bet on Biden to win offers a bit more upside at MyBookie, while you’re getting better bang for your buck on Trump at BetOnline. This is why it makes sense to shop around at a number of different politics betting sites before settling on the bet you want to place.
For extensive coverage on the 2020 presidential election, check out our top recommended betting sites:
2. Keep An Eye on Polls
While some may scoff at the importance of political polling, the polls do give us some legitimately good insight as to how things may play out in the upcoming election. While many will cite Trump’s 2016 upset as a sign that polls are meaningless, it’s worth remembering that polling actually did suggest the race would be a close one that year.
Political betting sites didn’t take note, however, which is why Clinton was such a massive favorite. Oddsmakers bought into the public perception that Trump couldn’t actually win the election, and he made them pay dearly.
#Latest @TheEconomist Forecast:
Chance of winning the electoral college:
Biden 95%
Trump 5%Chance of winning the most votes:
Biden >99%
Trump <1%Estimated electoral college votes:
Biden 350
Trump 188https://t.co/6Ei5T5ogc2— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 26, 2020
Clinton and Trump were neck-and-neck in a number of key battleground states in pre-election polls, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida. Trump bucked the trends and won literally every single swing state he had to win, but the polls told us that was within the realm of possibility.
2020 election polls currently favor Biden in most swing states, but many of these polls are incredibly close with Trump within the margin of error. Polls can’t account for every voter, but keeping tabs on the numbers can help you identify where the value is in the betting odds.
3. Take Advantage of Election Prop Bets
A straight bet on the White House winner may be the most common way to bet on the 2020 election, but it’s far from the only way. Political betting sites have really stepped up their offerings ahead of one of the most highly-anticipated elections in American history.
In addition to the standard bet on Trump or Biden to win, there are countless other props at your disposal. Some sites, including MyBookie and Bovada, have specific props on which candidate will win a certain state’s electoral vote. You may also bet on which candidate will win the popular vote, and whether the candidate that loses the popular vote will still wind up winning thanks to the Electoral College.
Arizona Electoral College Winner
Election Prop Bet Example
Odds Courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Donald Trump
-140
Joe Biden
+100
Who Will Win the Popular Vote?
Election Prop Bet Example
Odds Courtesy of MyBookie.ag
Donald Trump
+300
Joe Biden
-500
Oddsmakers focus lots of attention on setting straight election odds properly, but the odds for prop bets may not be quite as sharp. As a result, there is typically plenty of betting value to be found if you do a little bit of digging with some of these props. Some sites may also be a bit slow to update their odds in reaction to news that may affect the election’s outlook one way or another.
If you want to bet on American politics this year, don’t focus all of your attention on the election winner. There are countless other ways to get action on the race.
4. Learn History on the United States Presidential Election
History can be very useful when it comes to predicting the outcome of an election. There are always political trends we can use to our advantage when analyzing how things may shake out.
With state-specific prop bets, knowing the electoral histories of those states is crucial. You may see the value on Trump to win California’s 55 electoral votes at an eye-popping +700 value and jump all over it. Of course, it’s worth knowing that Republicans have almost no recent track record of success in the Golden State. In 2016, Trump lost California to Clinton by 30 percentage points.
New York, California, Illinois. People are FLEEING, Taxes and Crime are going through the roof. VOTE TRUMP, I will turn it around, and FAST!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 26, 2020
The same can be said of Democratic candidates in historically red states. Biden at +1000 to win Arkansas looks appealing, but a Democratic presidential candidate hasn’t taken Arkansas since noted Arkansan Bill Clinton was on the ticket in the 1990s.
Being cognizant of election history and certain trends can give you an edge. States like Texas and Georgia that have long been Republican strongholds are suddenly looking more viable for Democrats these days thanks to shifting demographics. Using trends to your advantage is one way for you to get an edge on the house as a bettor.
5. There Is Value in Battleground States
The 2020 election will come down to a handful of battleground states that could go either way on Election Night. In 2016, Trump essentially swept these states, which is how he was able to pull off his remarkable upset of Clinton despite losing the popular vote by about three million. His path to the White House was narrow, but he managed to navigate it perfectly.
Odds on which candidate will win these battleground states this year are in flux. The odds tend to align with polls, but that isn’t always the case. In Florida, recent polls give Biden a 2-3 point lead. However, MyBookie has Trump and the Republicans as -160 favorites to take Florida for the second election in a row.
You can get plus-money value on Trump to win certain swing states he won in 2016, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Polling favors Biden in those states, but we saw just four years ago that Trump is fully capable of coming out on top. Knowing where the vulnerabilities in the odds lie is one of the keys to becoming a profitable politics bettor, and identifying value in battleground odds is one way to do just that.
Below we have included some other political betting resources to help get you ready to bet and win on the US Presidential election.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
