The 2020-2021 NBA Playoffs are less than a month and a half away from tipping off. Over the next 6 weeks, teams from both conferences will battle it out, vying for a spot in the postseason.
These contenders understand the significance of the final stretch of the season, but some sports gamblers aren’t on the same page.
As a sports bettor, it’s tempting to become lackadaisical during this portion of the basketball season. March Madness typically dominates the sports betting landscape in the early spring and immediately following the tournament, baseball season commences.
With all of the extra gambling opportunities, the NBA isn’t all that important to certain gamblers. However, there’s still a lot of basketball to be played, even if a lot of games seem meaningless.
The results over the next month or so will likely prove to be anything but meaningless come playoff time. Not only that, but there are still plenty of profitable betting opportunities on the table.
Instead of putting your NBA betting into cruise control in anticipation of the playoffs, consider pushing full steam ahead.
Here are 6 things gamblers need to know about the remainder of the regular season.
1 ‒ There Isn’t a Heavy Favorite
The NBA has seen a significant shift over the last several seasons. Whereas a majority of the previous decade was marked by a lack of parity around the league, there are now several notable contenders.
Gone are the days where gamblers essentially knew the NBA Finals would likely feature the Warriors and LeBron James. The league is still somewhat top-heavy, but the number of top-tier teams has increased.
Still, as it stands, two teams stand above the rest according to online sportsbooks. The Brooklyn Nets (+230 to win Finals) and the Los Angeles Lakers (+350) have a leg up on the rest of the field of legitimate contenders.
Brooklyn, the slight favorite, sits at the top of the Eastern Conference with a record of 36-17. Los Angeles, 33-20, is currently 6 games back in a stacked Western Conference.
Brooklyn has cruised for the most part since acquiring James Harden from the Houston Rockets earlier this season. Harden, together with Kyrie Irving, have led the Nets in the absence of Kevin Durant.
The Lakers, on the other hand, have struggled to overcome injuries to their own superstars. Still, the public continues to bet on Los Angeles, despite the status of LeBron and Anthony Davis.
Both appear as if they will be fully healthy come playoff time, but the Lakers are quite mediocre without either of them on the floor.
The lack of a clear favorite could make for a potentially profitable NBA Finals Future wager. Brooklyn seems like the top dog, and there’s some value there.
However, there’s likely more value in taking one of the other serious contenders. Either the Clippers (+600), Jazz (+750), or Bucks (+950) could make a run to a championship.
2 ‒ Player Award Wagers Will Progressively Lose Value
With every passing game, betting on NBA player awards becomes less and less profitable.
Awards like the Regular Season MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and even Comeback Player of the Year each attract a lot of gambling action.
However, it’s becoming pretty clear which players are going to walk away with each trophy at the end of the year. Because of this, betting on the favorite doesn’t provide much value, and betting on underdogs is likely inadvisable.
Injuries to a few MVP candidates in the past several weeks has taken a lot of the allure out of betting on the award. Joel Embiid seemed like the clear favorite before he landed awkwardly following a dunk.
The Sixers’ big man is now back on the court and slowly knocking off the rust from his injury.
The unfortunate injury luck that found Embiid also impacted LeBron James, who was making a case for his 5th MVP before he went down. Both Embiid and James are still a part of the conversation, but their odds continue to plummet.
Now it seems as though Denver’s Nikola Jokic (-210) is in prime position to run away with the award. His only legitimate threat is Embiid +390. Harden, who spent the first few weeks of the season fighting to get traded off the Rockets, continues to fall off the board at +1200 due to injuries.
Elsewhere, the Defensive Player of the Year Award is Rudy Gobert’s to win. At -280, he has a commanding lead over the field. Unless he gets injured there’s no reason to think any other player has a shot.
Right now the only award that might be worth betting is NBA Rookie of the Year.
Anthony Edwards (-125) seems to be the best bet, but Tyrese Haliburton (+210) isn’t sitting too far behind. If Edwards continues to play as well as he has recently, the award is his for the taking.
But, Halliburton has shown time and time again that there’s no reason he should have slid in the draft. The fact that Sacramento drafted him with the 12th pick could turn out to be one of the biggest steals in recent memory.
3 ‒ Teams Still Value Higher Playoff Seed
There’s a common misconception going around that NBA teams don’t really care about playoff seeding.
The load management movement has convinced some gamblers that teams are content settling for a lower seed. While some teams might start resting their starters during the final stretch of the season, that doesn’t prove much.
You see, the difference between a 1 and 2 seed is huge, as is the difference between the 6, 7, and 8 seeds. A 1 seed secures a home-court advantage and a slightly easier road to the finals.
That top seed is quite valuable because there are realistically 3 teams that could make postseason runs. The Nets, Sixers, and Bucks – the top teams in the Eastern Conference – should finish out the season with similar records.
Whichever one of those contenders finishes atop the East not only secures home court, but can avoid facing the other 2 until the Eastern Conference Finals.
With that in mind, it’s a bit ludicrous to assume that any of those teams will take their foot off of the gas if the top seed is still in play. As a gambler, make sure to weigh these implications when placing wagers.
4 ‒ Teams’ Rotations Will Fluctuate Daily
The next several weeks of the NBA season will be demanding for gamblers.
When lines are released every night, some will jump off of the page. NBA betting sites can sometimes miss the mark and certainly aren’t perfect.
If you notice a line that is too good to be true, there are a few things to keep in mind before placing a bet.
- Sometimes oddsmakers are privy to information that the gambling public is not
- Even if they are off, their misses aren’t nearly as drastic as they appear
- Injury information and rotation adjustments can obfuscate lines
Before you get too far ahead of yourself, you must acknowledge that there’s a reason for an inflated line. Additionally, there’s no way of knowing which players will start or not.
Middling contenders might start resting players earlier and COVID-19 is still impacting the league; there are no definitive starting lineups in 2021.
5 ‒ Mediocrity in East Could Present Issues
The logjam at the bottom of the Eastern Conference could prove to be problematic for sports gamblers. As mentioned in an earlier point, the difference between the 6th, 7th, and 8th seed is more significant than it has ever been.
That’s due in large part to the NBA’s new play-in tournament.
In the past, a team finishing among the top 8 in either conference was guaranteed a playoff spot. However, the NBA introduced a play-in feature during the 2019-2020 bubble season and is choosing to proceed with that concept.
Now, the 7th and 8th seed will face off in a one-game playoff with the winner securing its spot. The loser will face the winner of a one-game playoff between the 9th and 10th seed.
The winner of that matchup will also secure its playoff spot. The likely outcome of this new playoff is that teams will no longer become complacent and content with a 7 or 8 seed.
Additionally, teams fighting to break into the top 10 will in each conference will now have more motivation to perform well down the stretch. Not only will this incentivize teams to put in the effort during the last month of the season and make the sport more watchable, but it will also assist the NBA in decreasing tanking around the league.
While this might make previously meaningless games watchable for fans, it could impact wagers down the road.
6 ‒ West’s Last 2 Playoff Spots Coming Down to the Wire
It seems like there’s a noticeable difference between skill levels of Eastern Conference teams fighting for a final playoff spot. The Celtics, Heat, Hornets, and Knicks all sit around the .500 mark and look like they belong in the postseason.
There might be a case to be made for the Pacers, but they still sit a few games back of the 8th-seed.
The Western Conference isn’t nearly as predictable and the 7th and 8th seeds might very well come down to the wire. As it stands, it looks like the Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are in the driver’s seat to secure the final 2 seeds.
However, as you know, securing either of those last 2 seeds doesn’t carry as much weight as it has in previous years.
Sitting right behind Dallas and Memphis are both the Spurs (1 game back) and Warriors (2 games back). Each of those teams is well-rounded enough to give their play-in tournament adversary a run for their money.
Conclusion
Sports gamblers should be licking their chops while looking at the next few weeks of NBA action. Instead of sitting on your heels and waiting for the postseason, try to make some profitable wagers.
Unlike years, there isn’t a heavy favorite so don’t fall in love with any of these teams. Injuries, COVID-19 load management will continue to impact the top contenders around the league.
Before you place bets, always consult resources to verify rotations, trends and potential matchups. With stars seeming to be unable to stay on the court, basketball gamblers are likely in for a wild ride.
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