7 Quarterbacks Who Can Outplay Player Prop Lines in Passing and Rushing

Player props are becoming a huge thing in the NFL betting landscape. One reason is that it’s a fantastic alternative to fantasy football. The difference is that instead of wagering an overall performance, player props come to a performance either in a single category or multiple categories. 

For example, Lamar Jackson’s over/under for rushing yards may rest at 45.5, and you’ll bet whether he’ll rush for more or less than his allotted total. Or perhaps the over/under for Patrick Mahomes sits at 245.5 passing yards. 

Of course, alternate totals exist with greater or lesser odds.

Today’s article covers seven NFL quarterbacks who perform well week in and week out and will often outplay their player prop odds in both passing and rushing, regardless of how lofty the lines are.

Most of these quarterbacks on this list are below 30, so they’ll likely do so throughout the 2020s, unless they suffer a bad case of the yips, of course. 


But with these players, it isn’t likely to happen.

Let’s get started on our list of seven quarterbacks who can outplay prop lines in passing and rushing.

1 – Patrick Mahomes/Kansas City Chiefs

Thank you, Captain Obvious, right?

Mahomes holds a career average of 300.75 passing yards per game. His average in 2019 sat at 287.9. His second full season as a starter. 

With that said, any time Mahomes’ line is anywhere near or below this number, he’s generally a safe bet. 

Of course, there’s always the chance he has a bad game. But if you know anything about Mahomes, they’re few and far between. 

Thus far, in his career with the Kansas City Chiefs, he has averaged 2.45 touchdown passes per game. Often, you’ll see his line for the game sit between 1.5 and 2.5. My suggestion here is to look at the opposing team’s offensive prowess.

If it’s anywhere near respectable, expect Mahomes to ball all game long, exceeding his line in projected passing yards so long as it sits below the 287.9 mark. And if his touchdown line is 1.5 or under, it’s often safe he’ll toss a couple of touchdown strikes, given his averages. 

He’s also a serviceable runner. But he often picks up his yards through the air. 

2 – Lamar Jackson/Baltimore Ravens

You’ll find favorable lines in Jackson’s props in the rushing/rushing touchdown column almost as much as you would in passing yards/passing touchdowns. 

Before 2020, Jackson’s passing mechanics were abysmal. However, he is improving in this category, though the guy’s release gives me migraines. Nevertheless, it works for him. 

Lamar’s growing as a passer in the NFL, so he’s no longer the quarterback averaging between 170 and 175 passing yards per game as he did over the first two seasons of his career.

As mentioned, he’s far more seasoned in throwing mechanics and you can expect his average number of passing yards to continue to rise. He also has the weapons around him to deliver stellar passing numbers each game. 

As his career wears on, whether it is with the Baltimore Ravens or not, you’ll see a Lamar Jackson who is throwing more than he is running. So, ironically, the true risk will involve Jackson’s rushing line in time. With that said, as his lines for passing yards rises, rest assured he’s a safe bet in that department.

He’s one of those quarterbacks who will always be a serviceable runner, so if his lines for the week hover around his average yards per game, he’s still a safe bet under most circumstances. 

3 – Kyler Murray/Arizona Cardinals

Like Jackson, Murray is one to watch in both the rushing and passing departments. And he excels in both avenues of the game. Unlike Jackson, it’s far more likely you’ll see Murray continue to trend upward in both departments. 

One reason is that Murray can protect his body either through sliding or ducking out of bounds. He’s also known to slide in the backfield rather than to take a sack, further preserving his body. 

As Murray matures as a passer, his lines for both passing yards and touchdown passes will increase, as will his production in both arenas.

The Arizona Cardinals have surrounded him with a stellar offense, so you can expect Murray to clear his lines for passing yards and touchdown passes more often. You should also expect him to do the same running the football, at least until teams figure out how to stop or at least tackle him. 

While most quarterbacks on this list mature into more traditional passers, and run less often as they gain NFL experience, Murray may find himself as an outlier.

Sure, he’ll throw the ball more as he ages and will run less. But he preserves his body and protects himself from the big hit better than any quarterback perhaps in NFL history. 

And this will allow him to threaten his projected rushing prop throughout the 2020s. 

4 – Josh Allen/Buffalo Bills

At the time of writing, Allen has put up 346, 415, 311, and 288 yards through the first four weeks of the season for the Buffalo Bills. That should tell you a couple of things. The first is that his line for passing yards will skyrocket. 

However, if he keeps this up look for him to clear the line in the passing game often. The same goes for his touchdown line. In 2018, he threw a meager 10 touchdowns and he doubled that number in 2019. 

Over the first four games of 2020, he sits at 10 touchdown passes and 1 picks. Rare among quarterbacks. And while you shouldn’t expect him to average 3 per game (though it’s possible), it should tell you that he’s a safer bet to clear that line as well. 

And like Jackson, expect his rushing totals to drop. However, since Allen can pick up between 5 and 7 yards a carry when he decides to tuck it and run, he’s often a safe pick for the over. 

5 – Dak Prescott/Dallas Cowboys

The quarterback for the Dallas Cowboys, Dak Prescott, will have a line for passing yards that will always be through the roof. As long as he keeps up his 300+ passing yards per game average, he has held since 2019.

And with an arsenal of receivers at his disposal, he’ll often soar past the 300-yard mark. If there’s one number to be concerned about with Prescott, it rests in the number of touchdown passes he throws.

He’s thrown over 23 touchdown passes just once in his career. Fewer than 1.5 per game. Often the line oddsmakers give quarterbacks. 

With that said, anything projected over 1.5 touchdown passes should be taken as far as the talent of opposing defenses against the pass. Prescott’s low touchdown totals stem from Zeke Elliott running the football, rather than meltdowns inside the red zone. 

It’s just a product of having a good running back; no fault to Prescott. 

Like Jackson and Allen, the more Dak matures as a passer the less of a rusher he becomes. That said, check his averages for rushing yards per game before placing a bet on his line for rushing yards. They have decreased since 2017, given his talent in the passing game. 

However, for his passing lines, feel free to bet the over often unless he’s playing a stellar pass defense. 

6 – Russell Wilson/Seattle Seahawks

Over the past few seasons, Wilson dropped the “game manager” label and developed more into a traditional passer. And he’s excelled in the role, evidenced by a career year in 2019. 

Wilson’s also one of the quarterbacks on this list who will almost always exceed his line in passing yards and often passing touchdowns. 

Unlike many quarterbacks on this list, the Seattle Seahawks talent surrounding Wilson doesn’t boast legit All-Pro players.

Mahomes has Tyreek Hill. Jackson has Mark Andrews. Murray has DeAndre Hopkins. Prescott’s passing lanes are opened because of Ezekiel Elliott’s presence in the backfield. And Josh Allen has Stefon Diggs as his number one receiver. 

If there’s one quarterback on this list better than any other at elevating the talent around him, it’s Wilson. And he does it well.

Sure, guys like Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, and Chris Carson, among others can start on other NFL franchises. But none are great players and are at best fringe Pro Bowlers. 

If there’s one player on this list I trust to exceed their allotted player props, at least in the passing game, it’s Russell Wilson. 

7 – Joe Burrow/Cincinnati Bengals

Burrow is at number seven on this list because he too fits the mold of a dual-threat quarterback who can tuck the rock and pick up yardage if he must. 

And as a pro, Burrow picked up right where he left off in college, even if he’ll see some struggles early in his career. 

However, the Cincinnati Bengals have already proven they trust Burrow dropping back and threading the needle. Burrow has responded with a decent completion percentage for a rookie along with a sense of security in taking care of the football. 

Sure, as with the other quarterbacks on this list, expect his projected over/under line to increase. But you should also expect his already-decent production to increase. 

Over his rookie season, Burrow will have some quirks to work out, so he’s not always going to be a smart bet in 2020. But he’s the kind of quarterback you can expect to take a major leap forward in production.

And while the odds and lines increase, you should find him skipping over in passing and even rushing often. He will threaten both numbers each week. And in time, he’ll become a safer bet to overcome the lines for touchdown passes. 

Conclusion

I always stress it’s never a guarantee that players making any list will exceed their projected player prop. However, the seven quarterbacks listed above will give you solid production during most games of the season. 

There are outliers, but they’re rare. 

Another common denominator is that each of these quarterbacks are a threat to run the ball every time they drop back to pass. And they almost always excel in the running game because of it, even if they mature more into pocket passers and less as scramblers as their careers wear on. 

Who are your favorite quarterbacks to bet player props on and is there anyone from this list you like?

Let us know.