Of all of the options for new sports gamblers, baseball might be the best one. I explain why MLB is your best gambling option on this page and share a few aspects of baseball betting you should know about.
I’m not saying that making a consistent profit by betting on MLB wagers is easy, but it’s easier than most other sports and leagues like the NFL and NBA.
The seven reasons why MLB is your best option that we have listed below also give you a way to get started on sports betting. Once you learn why MLB is your best option, you can use the information to start building your own model to evaluate games. It won’t take long before you can learn how to turn your new knowledge into profits.
1 – Readily Available Stats for Starting Pitchers
Starting pitchers are the key to winning MLB wagers. And you can quickly and easily access all of the information you need to evaluate each starting pitcher.
The days of digging through box scores in the newspaper have been gone for a long time. You can quickly look up how each pitcher performed in his last start, and his last 3 or 5 or 10 starts. You can access information about his velocity by start or even by inning.
You can see how a pitcher performs during day games compared to night games, how many pitches he throws in each start, and how much rest he has between starts. You can also find out how deep the manager lets each pitcher work in games, and how well the pitcher performs early and late in games.
You need to spend more time evaluating starting pitchers than any other position, but the availability of all of the stats you need makes this job easier than ever.
2 – Advanced Statistics for Position Players
Starting pitchers aren’t the only players that have mountains of stats available. Position players also have a wide range of stats available, including advanced statistics that have only recently become popular.
You have to sift through all of the statistics and advanced stats that are available to find the ones that help your evaluation system, but whatever you need is available. Look at the different variations of wins above replacement, or WAR, that are available to get started.
You can also access advanced defensive metrics that have never been available to MLB gamblers before. You used to have to watch defensive players and judge how good they were. But now, you can find statistics that cover fielding percentage and range in a single package.
The danger for beginners in MLB betting today is having too much information instead of not enough information. Look at every statistic you can access, and then determine the ones that help you evaluate MLB games and which ones you need to ignore before you place bets on the MLB.
3 – Multiple Betting Opportunities Every Day
The MLB season is my favorite because every day during the season there are multiple games on the schedule. The more games on the schedule, the better chance I have of finding one or more of them that have lines that offer value.
Popular teams like the Dodgers and Yankees get more betting action than other teams, so the sportsbooks set better lines on their games. But this leaves plenty of games with teams like the Mariners, Rangers, Reds, and Giants that aren’t as popular.
As an MLB Gambler, I Don’t Care Which Teams Are Playing
The only thing I care about is finding lines that offer value. I don’t care if no one else is betting on a game, as long as I identify value on one team or the other and can get a wager down.
Your job is the same as mine when you evaluate MLB games. You evaluate each game on the schedule to predict which team is going to win and by how much. Then, look at the lines offered by the sportsbooks to determine which lines offer value compared to your prediction.
When you find games and lines that offer value, you place a wager. You track your results and adjust your evaluation process based on your results. Over time, you refine your system until you can turn a profit consistently.
4 – Pure Mathematical Analysis Is Possible
It’s still a good evaluation tactic to watch as many MLB games as you can, but MLB is one of the few sports where you have the chance to build a purely statistical model. A pure statistical model is one where you can plug in statistics and predict results without making adjustments based on what you see in games.
Is this the best way to wager on MLB games?
The answer is, it depends. I use a statistical model, but I still watch games and use what I see in games to make adjustments. And I believe that this is the best way to find value in MLB games.
But just because this method works for me, it doesn’t mean that this is the best model for you. You need to understand that pure statistical models that work aren’t that simple. They tend to be complicated and can take a long time to set up and perfect.
You should start working with a statistical model for MLB gambling, but don’t be in a hurry to quit using your own eyes and evaluate games by watching players actually play.
5 – Fast News Availability
I love how fast MLB news is available today. The beat writers usually have Twitter accounts, and I can find out about baseball news as soon as it happens most of the time.
You can access hundreds of media outlets on your computer or phone and make quick adjustments based on the news.
Lineups are posted hours before each game, so you never have to place a wager until you know exactly who is starting and which players are getting a day off. When you combine this with the availability of online sportsbooks, where you can place a wager minutes before the game starts, there’s never a need to make a wager without all of the information available.
Build a list or database of places and people who break MLB news and follow them online. Use all of the information you can access before placing and MLB wager.
6 – Home Series Advantage Strategy
One of the most profitable MLB strategies I’ve used over the years is the home series advantage strategy. Notice that I call it the home series advantage and not the home field advantage.
MLB teams are better at home than on the road, but this isn’t anything surprising for sports fans. Teams in every single sport share this trait.
But what you might not know is that MLB teams are extremely efficient in not getting swept in series at home. You don’t have to take my word for this either. Look at the past five or 10 MLB seasons and count how many home teams get swept in a series.
Take this another step, and eliminate the bottom 10 teams in MLB each season from your search. When you ignore the bottom 10 teams in MLB, the home team almost never gets swept in a series. This means that if you can get large enough bets down, you can use a type of Martingale system betting on home teams in MLB to secure profits.
Use this strategy with caution, but the numbers don’t lie. This is a profitable strategy that every MLB gambler can use.
7 – Managers Are Predictable
MLB managers are predictable, and this is good for you as a sports gambler. Each MLB manager has his own tendencies, but once you learn them, you can use this information for every game you evaluate.
You Need to Build a Base of Knowledge for Each MLB Manager
How deep do they let their starters work in a game? Do they have a different hook for young pitchers than experienced pitchers? How much do they care about pitch counts?
How often does each MLB manager use stolen base attempts, bunts, and hit and run plays? Do they use defensive replacements and pinch hitters often?
You need to know the answers to all of these questions and more. As you answer these questions and learn more about each MLB manager, you build your base of knowledge. When you evaluate each game on the schedule, you can use this information to refine your model and predictions to improve your chances to win and find value.
Conclusion
Major League Baseball is the best choice for new sports gamblers. You can easily find all of the statistics you need. And if you learn how to effectively use these stats, you can quickly learn how to make a consistent profit.
You have multiple games to evaluate every day of the season, have access to news soon after it happens, and can use the home series advantage strategy from the beginning. When you learn how to predict what managers are going to do, it just makes your job easier. Start evaluating MLB games today, and you can start making profits soon.
Michael Stevens
Michael Stevens has been researching and writing topics involving the gambling industry for well over a decade now and is considered an expert on all things casino and sports betting. Michael has been writing for GamblingSites.org since early 2016. …