7 Things to Look for When Straight Betting NFL Games

Straight betting can be a real challenge. Sure, logic’s involved, but sometimes you need to expect the unexpected. Variables like injury reports, healthy scratches, and in-game injuries will all factor into the outcome.

And we just can’t help that.

But we have ultimate control over a few variables. This article covers 7 things you need to look for before you make a single straight bet. Don’t worry, as the following won’t take too much of your time.

However, it is a time investment you’ll be glad you made. The following will never guarantee you win every bet. However, they will put you in the best position to win. 

Read on to discover the 7 factors you need to pay attention to. 

1 – Don’t Get Trapped

This one is straightforward. Which teams are playing and what are their recent histories? For example, let’s take a few traps from Week 1 of the 2020 season and why they were traps.

Bear in mind that the lines for each game are as of September 9th, 2020 per BetOnline. That said, your odds could’ve varied. Alright, so let’s get started.  

The Arizona Cardinals were 7-point underdogs against the San Francisco 49ers. However, the Cards were a hot pick to at least cover the spread given their improvements on defense and of course, the blockbuster trade for DeAndre Hopkins. 

It set up the perfect trap, with San Fran’s receiving unit decimated because of injuries and opt-outs. Add in a revamped Cardinals’ defense and a quarterback in Kyler Murray who’s talented enough to evade the Niners’ pass rush, and this one should’ve come as no surprise. 

Always consider who’s playing and look at the talent discrepancies between the two teams. If the underdog matches well against the favorite on paper as the Cards did with the Niners, they’re a good bet. 

But there are more factors rather than just identifying traps. You’ll also want to analyze strengths, weaknesses, and the unique situations of both teams. All of which are described in greater depth below. 

2 – Underdog’s Strengths

Let’s look at the Cardinals again. How did they end up not just beating the spread, but defeating the 49ers?

First off, the Cards’ had the worst defense in 2019, allowing 402 yards per game. During the off-season, general manager Steve Keim made vast improvements to the D. He signed Jordan Phillips, who had a breakout season in Buffalo. 

The Cards added De’Vondre Campbell, who led the Atlanta Falcons in tackles in 2019. They went out and plucked Devon Kennard from the Detroit Lions. And they kept their star defensive players happy.

They turned the weakness into a strength. 

And they gave quarterback Kyler Murray a dynamic weapon in DeAndre Hopkins, who only recorded 14 receptions in his debut. And this is the same Kyler Murray who torched San Fran’s stellar defense in 2019. 

Again, the Cards’ strengths matched up exceptionally against the 49ers. Especially when the latter’s receiving units were demoralized with injuries. 

3 – Favorite’s Strengths 

Let’s look at the Baltimore Ravens and how they predictably blew out the Cleveland Browns. 

We know what the Ravens’ offense did in 2019. They torched even some of the NFL’s best teams. On the other end of the spectrum, the Browns had among the NFL’s worst defenses and anemic offenses. 

You could’ve told where this matchup was headed the second the NFL released the schedule. 

In addition to an offense that led the league in scoring; the Ravens also boast a powerful defense. A powerful defense that only got better throughout the off-season via free agency, trades, and the NFL Draft. 

It was surprising to see the Ravens holding just an 8-point advantage over Cleveland. With such a weak defense in Cleveland, the Ravens could key on star defensive end Myles Garrett and take him out of the equation while pounding the ball against a weakened linebacking unit.

And it’s exactly what the Ravens did. 

Baltimore’s running game is the best in the league for what appears to be the second year running. Their strength overpowered the Browns’ biggest weakness (run defense) by a longshot. 

You’d think the Browns would’ve at least made the game a little more interesting. But the Ravens were taking it by at least 2 touchdowns barring something unforeseen.

4 – Underdog’s Weaknesses

Let’s shift gears and talk about weaknesses.

Dissect why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t match up well against the New Orleans Saints. Other than a garbage-time touchdown, it was a blowout. 

Talk about hype. 

How did it happen?

It began in March 2020. 

Quarterback Tom Brady’s arrival in Tampa was far overrated given the fact he struggled to complete over 56 percent of his passes down the stretch in 2019. Something he did just twice over the final 9 games. 

Many of us tend to overrate receiver Mike Evans. Evans puts up his monster games, but he’s ineffective most of the season. Evans recorded more than 100 receiving yards in just 3 games in 2019. In those games, he recorded 180 or more receiving yards. 

Against good defenses like the Saints, neither Brady nor Evans are effective players. At least during this stage in Brady’s career. As for Evans, the guy has splash games and that’s about it. 

When they play ineffective football, so will the rest of the Bucs. 

What’s the major weakness here? 

Players like Brady and Evans don’t fare well against strong defenses. If the Bucs are underdogs against any defense that is a top-fifteen unit, it’s safer to bet the favorite. 

When a team like the Saints entered as 3.5-point favorites, this one should’ve been a given. 

Another good example is the Atlanta Falcons. Sure, both they and the Seattle Seahawks had weak defenses in 2019. But the Seahawks made vast improvements while the Falcons’ improvements were limited to Dante Fowler Jr. 

The spread for this game was 2 points, favoring the Seahawks. The final score, 38-25, with the Seahawks taking advantage over a weak Falcons’ defense. 

You had 2 strong offenses going at it, but the Falcons’ major weakness remained on defense and they showed.

Given the improvements the Seahawks made on defense with Bruce Irvin and Jamal Adams, you knew they’d stuff the Falcons more often. Taking advantage of a spotty Falcons’ offensive line and chasing down the immobile Matt Ryan. 

The score was 38-18 when the Seahawks backed off and the Falcons scored in garbage time with about 3 minutes left. 

5 – Favorite’s Weaknesses

Can the underdog’s strength take advantage of the favorite’s weakness? Let’s look at the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions tilt.

And no, we’re not talking about the Curse of Bobby Layne or the Rebuilding Since 1957 mentality you see in the Motor City. All superstitions aside. 

It was a great comeback from the Bears. And it’s something to have been expected in a game where they were 3-point underdogs. 

Why expect it?

A weak defense from the Detroit Lions. Come on, this unit was historically bad in 2018 and 2019. 

Sure, the Bears had a weak offense in 2019, but they kept a core of talented players. Guys like David Montgomery, Allen Robinson, and Anthony Miller, to name a few. They also went out and signed Jimmy Graham while drafting Cole Kmet to fix the tight end position. 

Whereas the Lions added more than their fair share of players to what was an already weak defense. They also hired a defensive coordinator in Cory Undlin to jumpstart the D. 

That said, the Bears’ offense was used to one another while Detroit’s defense not only faced a revamped system; they also had new faces like Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton, and Jeff Okudah.

Sooner than later, the Bears’ offense was poised for a breakout. And for a second it looked like it wouldn’t happen in Week 1. But in the fourth quarter, they exploded for 21 points. Exposing a still-weak Lions’ defense.

Sure, both units were weak in 2019. But where continuity existed with the Bears from a players’ standpoint, it was the same old, same old for a Lions defense that was historically bad in 2019. 

Also, Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford was in his first game back for the first time since Week 8 of 2019. There was going to be some rust and against a staunch Bears’ defense, that’s one of the best in football.                     

6 – Underdog’s Situation

Ask yourself about the underdog’s situation. This one is often more relevant later in the season, but a fantastic example from Week 1 are the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Who would’ve thought? And if you bet the upset on this one, I want to know your secrets. 

If you missed it, here’s the skinny. 

Quarterback Gardner Minshew went 19 for 20 and tossed 3 touchdown passes en route to a Jaguars’ win. The rookie-laden defense held and forced turnovers when they mattered the most. 

No one gave the underdog Jaguars a shot in this one. In fact, one NFL analyst even predicted this team would run the table in reverse to an 0-16 record. Hey, they have a quarterback in Minshew in his second season who no one still seems to believe in.

They’re starting 7 rookies. The Jags gutted their team and within the last 3 weeks cut Leonard Fournette and traded Yannick Ngakoue. 

And yeah, everyone in the NFL world said the team was tanking for Trevor Lawrence. 

Jacksonville’s situation?

We have nothing to lose but a lot of people to prove wrong. 

While the above statement may sound lazy from a logical standpoint, teams like this tend to take more risks, and when they pay off, they will lead to upsets. They’re more likely to go for it on fourth down. Even fourth and medium.

These teams will pull off a trickery or two. They’ll fake a punt on fourth down. Direct snap a sure field goal to the kicker, etc.

The Jags took an aggressive approach and it paid off. Motivation and momentum are often 2 underrated variables for any NFL game. They also proved to never take those 2 variables lightly. 

7 – Favorite’s Situation

This seventh variable is often more of a factor late in the season. Below are a few examples you’re bound to come across. 

Let’s suppose a heavy favorite is 12-2 entering Week 15 and the second-best team in the conference is 9-5. The team they’re playing is 5-9. 

Some teams take a conservative approach here and will often rest starters. Others may play them for just a half. In situations like these, you can perhaps expect an “upset” from the 5-9 underdogs as the loss won’t affect the favorite’s situation.

Now, let’s go with the more common variable: The favorite is 10-4 and the second-best team in the conference is 9-5. The favorite is going all-out here. If the 10-4 favorite wins and the 9-5 team loses their game, the situation changes in Week 17. 

Depending on if the team is aggressive or conservative, you can easily see the likelihood of different outcomes. 

Now, let’s go with an even more common outcome. An injury strikes a key player on a good football team. Happens all the time. Let’s look at 2019 when Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger went down with an injury and missed the season. 

Clearly, the Pittsburgh Steelers were still favored in many of their games because of their stellar defense. However, they lost a few games they should’ve won. Especially the Week 16 tilt against the New York Jets. 

Often, such teams are not as heavy of favorites or are even underdogs in games they’d otherwise find themselves favored in. But for teams like the Steelers, once it became clear they could win games on defense, oddsmakers started favoring Pittsburgh as they normally do. 

Especially when they sat at 8-5 late in the season and eyed a playoff berth on the backs of their defense. 

Conclusion

As you can see from the outlined examples, specific situations heading into each weekend can make an underdog or break a favorite. 

They’re often simple variables we overlook. 

The first thing to consider is always the matchups and if the line for that matchup looks feasible. Trap games exist all over the place. 

Consider the favorite’s strengths, how they match with the underdog, and vice versa. Do the same for the weaknesses and see if you can find a favorable matchup. 

And always consider the situation. Is the team accused of tanking and are they using the accusation as motivation to win games? And will the favorite benefit from covering the spread?

What are some strategies you employ in straight betting? Let us know in the comments.