UFC on ESPN+ 34: Overeem vs Sakai Prelims Betting Preview and Picks

On Saturday, September 5^th, the UFC returns to action with UFC on ESPN+ 34: Overeem vs Sakai live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The main event of the night is a heavyweight bout between Alistair Overeem and Augusto Sakai.

Prior to the main card fights of the evening, there is a four bout preliminary card to whet one’s MMA appetite. This is one of the smaller prelim cards the UFC has rolled out in quite some time, but there will still be plenty of intriguing octagon action. The prelims begin at 6PM ET and air live on ESPN+.

UFC betting sites have released odds for the full preliminary card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon, examine the current odds, identify any betting value and TKO our predictions.

Ricky Simon gets replaced at this weekend’s #UFCVegas9. Here’s the updated card & Global Times pic.twitter.com/VjBb734sHb

— MMA Form Guide (@MMAFormGuide) August 31, 2020

Cole Smith vs Hunter Azure

• Cole Smith (+185)
• Hunter Azure (-225)
• Over (-250)/Under (+210) 2.5 rounds

Cole Smith returns to the octagon for the first time in a year and is a sizable underdog against Azure. He made his debut for the UFC in May 2019 and has gone 1-1 under the banner. His last fight resulted in a loss to Miles Johns via split decision.

Five of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

Hunter Azure last fought in May and lost via 2^nd round KO to Brain Kelleher. Azure is also 1-1 inside the octagon. Four of his pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of TKO/KO. He’s 4-0 when going the distance.

Smith has a three inch height advantage, but Azure has a 3.5 reach advantage. I also give Azure the edge in striking and grappling. Smith’s takedown defense will be the key in this bout. If he can prevent the takedowns then he will have a decent chance to score the decision win.

According to MMA betting sites, this fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-250) as it will go the distance (-215). Three of Azure’s last four fights have gone the full three rounds. Smith has also gone to a decision in three of his last four bouts including both of his UFC fights.

I believe Azure will use his reach advantage to rack up points on the feet and takedown Smith whenever things might get concerning in the striking battle. Take Azure to win via unanimous decision (+110), which offers nice value and better odds than his moneyline.

Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Alexander Romanov

• Marcos Rogerio de Lima (+105)
• Alexander Romanov (-125)
• Over (+135)/Under (-155) 1.5 rounds

Marcos Rogerio de Lima last fought in February and won via 1^st round TKO over Ben Sosoli. He’s alternated between wins and losses since joining the UFC seven years ago. MRDL is 6-4 inside the octagon and is the slight underdog for this heavyweight fight.

Romanov is making his UFC debut after going undefeated in regional promotions. All 11 of his wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. Nine of his wins have come in the 1^st round.

MRDL has attempted to bounce between light heavyweight and heavyweight, but is the smaller fighter in this bout. Romanov will have two inches of height and close to 20 pounds on de Lima.

MRDL does have the advantage in knockout power and could end this fight quickly if Alexander Romanov isn’t cautious of the heavy hitter. Yet, Romanov has the clear advantage on the mat and that’s where I believe this fight will end up.

The odds favor Under 1.5 rounds (-155) and that’s because both men are finishers inside the octagon. Go with the Under and for the fight to end inside the distance (-565).

I expect Romanov to grind out the fight on the mat until he finds a submission hold or choke hold to force the tap out. Marcos Rogerio de Lima has suffered four submission losses in his career.

The betting value for Romanov will come from the moneyline betting odds, and winning inside the distance (+100). The longshot odds favor Romanov winning by submission (+435) which is surprising considering he has six wins by tapout and de Lima has four losses via tapout.

Montana De La Rosa vs Viviane Araujo

• Montana De La Rosa (+150)
• Viviane Araujo (-170)
• Over (-245)/Under (+205) 2.5 rounds

I’m a bit surprised at where the UFC slotted this fight on the card. Not only did this Top 12 women’s flyweight bout not get on the main card, but it’s not even the featured fight of the prelims. Yet, it’s one of only two scheduled bouts between two ranked fighters.

The #12 Montana De La Rosa last competed in February and won via unanimous decision over Mara Romero Borella. It was a bounce back performance as she dropped the fight prior to Andrea Lee in June 2019. De La Rosa is 4-1 inside the octagon with three wins via submission.

Eight of her 11 pro wins have come via submission. Montana De La Rosa is 3-3 when going the distance.

The 8^th ranked Viviane Araujo is 2-1 inside the octagon with all three UFC fights coming in 2019. Her last contest was in December and she lost via unanimous decision to Jessica Eye. Seven of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. She’s 1-1 when going the distance.

I believe that Montana De La Rosa is a live underdog for this fight. Not only does she have solid takedowns and excellent top control, but she’s dangerous in the submission department.

Unfortunately, she’s going up against someone who’s better on the feet, has better endurance, and has a solid takedown defense.

Although both women are finishers overall in their careers, they both have gone the distance in two straight contests. I believe this bout will go Over 2.5 rounds (-245) and go to the scorecards (-215).

From there, I see Araujo winning via decision (+135) as her overall volume of striking and stuffing takedown attempts will be the difference in this contest.

Bartosz Fabinski vs Andre Muniz

• Bartosz Fabinski (-145)
• Andre Muniz (+125)
• Over (-175)/Under (+155) 2.5 rounds

The featured prelims bout of the night is a middleweight contest between Andre Muniz and Bartosz Fabinski.

Muniz will make his second trip inside the octagon this weekend after having won his debut in November 2019 via unanimous decision. He’s on a five fight win streak and is looking to continue his rise up the weight class.

16 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with 12 by way of submission. Munoz is 3-0 when going the distance. He will have a one inch height and three inch reach advantage over his opponent this Saturday.

Bartosz Fabinski last fought in March and defeated Darren Stewart via unanimous decision. It was his first fight since November 2018 after having sat out all of 2019. Fabinski also missed all of 2016 and 2017 as well.

Bartosz Fabiński (@BartoszFabinski) steps into the octagon this Saturday at #UFCVegas9 against André Muniz! @LGS_MMA caught up with Fabiński for an interview ahead of his fight. Check it out!#MMA | #MMATwitter | #UFC | @UFC https://t.co/LzcJmMXm4D

— Overtime Heroics MMA (@mma_oth) September 1, 2020

Fabinski is 8-1 in his last nine fights and 3-1 inside the octagon. He started off his UFC career 3-0, but lost to Michel Prazeres via submission in 2018. Eight of his 15 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He is 7-1 when going the distance.

If Fabinski isn’t knocking out his opponents, he’s taking them the full distance and winning via unanimous decision. Munoz does have four TKO/KO losses and there is a chance that could happen in this bout.

More than likely, Munoz will spend a lot of time on his back as Fabinski scores points for takedowns and top control. From there, I expect the Polish fighter to smother Munoz for most of the fight and win this contest via unanimous decision. It won’t be fun to watch, but it will be another win for “The Butcher.”