UFC on ESPN+ 35: Preliminary Card Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Saturday, September 12^th, the UFC will be live from Las Vegas for UFC on ESPN+ 35. The event is headlined by a women’s strawweight battle. Prior to the main card, we’re taking a look at the seven fight preliminary card that begins at 5PM ET on ESPN+.

The prelims features several ranked fighters including the #9 ranked flyweight Matt Schnell taking on Tyson Nam in the featured bout of the preliminary portion of UFC on ESPN+ 35.

Also scheduled for the prelims is a Top 15 ranked women’s bantamweight bout between Julia Vila and Sijara Eubanks along with other notable fighters like Bryan Barberena, Roosevelt Roberts, Frank Camacho and Alan Patrick.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds courtesy of the best UFC betting sites, identify any value or potential upsets, and TKO our predictions:

Here are the Fightcard & Global Times for next weekend’s #UFCVegas10. Unconfirmed bout order for Prelims. Let’s see how many fights make it pic.twitter.com/uS5FPaJbCH

— MMA Form Guide (@MMAFormGuide) September 6, 2020

Sabina Mazo vs Justine Kish

• Sabina Mazo (-240)
• Justine Kish (+200)
• Over (-300)/Under (+240) 2.5 rounds

In the first of four women’s fights on the night, Sabina Mazo takes on Justine Kish in a flyweight battle.

Kish is the underdog for this contest as she steps inside the octagon for the 6^th time. Kish has a 3-2 record in the UFC and last fought in January where she won via unanimous decision. The win snapped a two fight losing streak. Seven of her nine fights have gone the distance where she’s 5-2.

Sabina Mazo has turned things around since her UFC debut where she lost via unanimous decision to Maryna Moroz in an upset. Since then Mazo has won two fights in a row including a split decision victory in her last trip inside the octagon eight months ago. She’s 6-1 when going the distance.

Combined, these two women have gone the distance in 14 of their 18 total fights. Mazo has gone the full distance in five straight contests and Kish has gone to the scorecards in seven straight contests. So, there’s no doubt that this fight is going the distance (-280) and Over 2.5 rounds (-300).

From there, I expect Mazo to win this contest via unanimous decision (-130). Not only is she the better overall fighter, but that prop bet offers the best value for this bout.

Bryan Barberanna vs Anthony Ivy

• Bryan Barberanna (-275)
• Anthony Ivy (+235)
• Over (-135)/Under (+105) 1.5 rounds

Whenever Barberena steps inside the octagon, you can expect fireworks. He’s a heavy handed striker that puts on memorable performances even in defeat. Whenever I see that Barberena is on the card, my intrigue goes up and I think about the war he was in against Luque last year.

I don’t expect this fight to be a war, but I do see it being entertaining for as long as it lasts. Barberena has lost two fights in a row and three of his last four. 12 of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 victories by way of TKO/KO.

Anthony Ivy made his UFC debut in June and lost via 1^st round TKO. That defeat snapped a five fight win streak. All eight of Ivy’s wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s never gone the distance in a pro fight, and I don’t see that happening in this contest (-260).

I expect this bout to end right around the O/U mark of 1.5 rounds. I’m going with the Under since it offers more value (+105) and because Ivy lost his UFC debut via 1^st round TKO/KO.

I expect Barberena to dominate this fight and finish it off by the end of the 1^st round. Barberena winning inside the distance (-125) offers the best value for this matchup.

Frank Camacho vs Brock Weaver

• Frank Camacho (-225)
• Brock Weaver (+185)
• Over (+110)/Under (-140) 2.5 rounds

Frank Camacho has seven UFC fights under his belt, but is just 2-5 inside the octagon and enters this weekend on a two fight losing streak. He last fought in June and lost via 1^st round TKO to Justin Jaynes. His last two fights ended in a combined 2:43 time.

For @FrankTheCrank55 Camacho, he sees a lot of similarities with #UFCVegas10 opponent Brok Weaver. That being said, he believes this would translate to an action-packed affair: https://t.co/okknDvZynt

— RealFight PH (@realfightph) September 8, 2020

19 of his 22 pro wins have come via stoppage with 17 victories by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-2 when going the distance.

Brok Weaver made his UFC debut in February and won due to his opponent being disqualified due to an illegal knee. Weaver then stepped back inside the octagon in May, but lost via 2^nd round submission.

Five of his 15 wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. Weaver is 8-2 when going the distance.

I don’t like this matchup in regards to betting on it. Both men need to win, but neither inspire confidence.

Oddsmakers favor the fight finishing inside the distance (-175) and Under 2.5 rounds (-140). I like the fight coming in Under 2.5 rounds. Combined, these two men have gone the distance in 15 of 51 total fights.

Because Camacho is a huge favorite, there’s no need to pick against him. And his odds for winning inside the distance offer value at -120.

Alan Patrick vs Bobby Green

• Alan Patrick (+210)
• Bobby Green (-250)
• Over (-255)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds

Alan Patrick returns to the octagon for the first time in two years. He last fought at UFC 229 and lost via 3^rd round KO. He’s 5-2 in the UFC and 3-1 in his last four fights. Nine of his 15 pro wins have come via decision.

Bobby Green turned things around in 2020 with two straight wins. Green defeated Guida in June and Vannata in August both by unanimous decision. He’s stepping in on two weeks’ notice and looking to keep his success going this year.

17 of his 26 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine wins via submission. Green is 9-6-1 when going the distance in a fight.

This contest will come down to Green’s ability to defend the takedown. Patrick depends heavily on his takedowns and grappling, while Green has found success on the mat and upright. However, it’s the standing and striking part of Green’s arsenal that should earn him the win this Saturday.

Unless Patrick has greatly improved his striking skills in the two years that he’s been away from the octagon, he will be seriously outmatched in the standup portion of this fight.

I expect Green to either find a late round TKO or to win via unanimous decision. I really like what I’ve seen from Green this year as it appears that he’s turned things around. The betting value is with Green winning via decision at -110 odds.

Roosevelt Roberts vs Matt Frevola

• Roosevelt Roberts (-105)
• Matt Frevola (-115)
• Over (-275)/Under (+215) 2.5 rounds

Roosevelt Roberts enters this contest as the slight underdog. He last fought in June and lost via 1^st round submission to the veteran Jim Miller. The loss snapped a two fight win streak. Roberts has an overall record of 4-2 inside the octagon.

Eight of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five victories by way of submission. Roberts is 2-1 when going the distance.

Matt Frevola is the slight betting favorite with a record of 2-1-1 inside the octagon. He last fought 11 months ago and won via split decision against Luis Pena. I actually thought Pena had won that fight. Frevola is unbeaten in his last three bouts and has only been stopped once in his career just like Roberts.

Four of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of submission. Frevola is 4-0-1 when going the distance.

Despite being the underdog, I really like this matchup for Roberts who has a five inch height and two inch reach advantage. Roberts is the better striker with a longer reach and smoother boxing skills. He also has a decent grappling arsenal with his guillotine choke.

Although online betting sites favor the fight to go Over 2.5 rounds and for it to go the distance, I think Roberts will end this bout inside the distance. He has so many paths to victory that I just can’t see this fight going the full three rounds.

Julia Avila vs Sijara Eubanks

• Julia Avila (-320)
• Sijara Eubanks (+260)
• Over (-205)/Under (+165) 2.5 rounds

Sijara Eubanks was supposed to take on Karol Rosa at last weekend’s UFC event, but Rosa withdrew on weigh-in day. This matchup with Julia Avila was put together within the last week and features two Top 15 ranked bantamweights.

The #15 ranked bantamweight Sijara Eubanks snapped a two fight losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Sarah Moras in May. She’s 3-2 in the octagon and barely holding on to her Top 15 ranking. Seven of her nine pro fights have gone the distance. She’s 3-5 in those contests.

The 14^th ranked Julia Avila is on a four fight win streak where she’s won both of her UFC fights as well. Avila last fought in June and defeated Gina Mazany via 1^st round TKO in 22 seconds. Five of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. She’s 3-0 when going the distance.

Eubanks might have the edge on the mat, but Avila is adept in grappling and a far better striker than Sijara. Avila’s takedown defense and not panicking on the mat will be huge for her chances at winning in addition to her striking output.

I believe Avila’s volume of striking will be the difference in the fight as she cruises to a unanimous decision win. Eubanks has never been stopped in her career, and I believe that trend will continue this weekend.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-205) and Avila to win via decision (-105) which offers much better value than her moneyline.

Matt Schnell vs Tyson Nam

• Matt Schnell (+100)
• Tyson Nam (-120)
• Over (-120)/Under (-110) 2.5 rounds

The featured bout of the preliminary card is a flyweight battle between the 9^th ranked Matt Schnell and Tyson Nam.

Nam’s tenure in the UFC hasn’t been easy as he was thrown into the fire with bouts against Sergio Pettis and Kai Kara-France. He lost both of those fights via unanimous decision.

Facing a possible departure from the UFC with a third straight loss, Nam responded by defeating Zarrukh Adashev via 1^st round KO in 32 seconds. It was the 11^th TKO/KO win of his career. He’s also 7-8-1 when going the distance.

Schnell has been with the UFC for the last four years and also started off his octagon tenure with two losses. He bounced back to win four in a row before having his win streak snapped by Alexandre Pantoja last December via 1^st round KO.

10 of his 14 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of submission. Schnell is 3-1 when going the distance.

Start Your Morning With Five Random Stats About Matt Schnell#UFC #UFCVegas10 https://t.co/VliDXEkW8Z

— Bloody Canvas MMA (@BloodyCanvasMMA) September 9, 2020

I have concerns with both fighters, but if we’re going off of what each fighter did in their last fight then I have to side with Nam in this bout. When you add Schnell’s durability issues that popped up again in December, I’m not sure he can withstand the firepower from Nam this Saturday.

MMA betting sites had a hard time deciding on the Over/Under as the odds are almost even for this bout. I believe Nam’s confidence, striking advantage, and power will pay off in this contest as he will finish off Schnell in Under 2.5 rounds (-110).

I think Nam turned the corner with his knockout victory three months ago and he should be able to pull off the win this weekend.