It’s set to be one of the most fascinating US election nights in recent memory as America goes to the polls on 3rd November, but will it be Donald Trump or Joe Biden taking the oath of office on Inauguration Day in January?
The Democratic challenger currently tops the latest US election betting with Marathonbet given his lead in national polling, but as we’ve seen from previous elections, it’s who wins the electoral college on the night that counts.
Here’s our look at the latest US Election betting ahead of November’s big vote.
US Election Predictions – Is it now Biden’s race to lose?
The Covid-19 pandemic – and Donald Trump’s handling of it – looks to have shifted this race decisively in Joe Biden’s favour heading into the final weeks of campaigning.
At the start of the year, despite any number of controversies, Donald Trump looked to be in good shape for a re-election bid with the US economy and job numbers both trending in the right direction.
However, the most unpredictable US president of all time was perhaps always destined to collide with the biggest ‘Black Swan’ event in generation– a worldwide pandemic. It’s an unprecedented situation that has wiped out the steady economic progress that Trump was relying on to mount his re-election bid.
With the president on the back foot after the most testing spell of his presidency – in an election year of all years – Americans may just fancy installing a ‘safe pair of hands’ in the Oval Office to guide them through a bumpy next four years.
2016 saw voters take a leap into the unknown with an anti-establishment candidate. Biden will be banking on buyers’ remorse kicking in with some Trump voters in 2020, as they hanker for a return to the safe haven of dull, ‘business as usual’ politics under the former VP.
With Joe Biden now seen by most Americans as the best candidate to lead the recovery effort, the Democrat is 27/50 favourite to be sworn in as next US president in early 2021.
Trump to Win Odds – Could Trump still provide value?
One thing we should all keep in mind given various election upsets over the last few years: don’t always trust the polls. As the old political cliché goes, the only poll that matters is the one on election day. Trump will be hoping that’s the case yet again in 2020.
The ‘shy voter effect’ can sometimes mean a late shift in favour of one candidate or party isn’t always picked up in the polling, with the New York Times just one respected outlet that had Hillary Clinton’s chances of winning at a massive 85% on the eve of polling in 2016. While national and state polling in 2020 all points to a fairly comfortable Biden win, Trump has routinely confounded expectations since his rise to political prominence.
Much could depend on whether it’s jobs or health primarily motivating US voters in this most unusual of election years.
While the incumbent has been criticised for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, his long-term economic response to the crisis has been viewed as a potential ‘Trump’ card against the traditionally big-spending Democrats.
Middle America may yet have some last-minute jitters over a Biden presidency and its spending plans, although the former VP is a more moderate figure than many in his party. Trump will need to convince voters it’s the wrong time to roll the dice given the state of the global economy.
Recent polls suggest both candidates are now trending virtually neck-and-neck on the economy. That would not be good news for the incumbent on polling day. Nevertheless, it probably remains his strongest suit as he argues for re-election. Expect Trump’s closing pitch to be a relentless focus on a quick American rebound and a ‘roaring’ 2021.
On that theme, there’s also an almighty row playing out on both sides over an economic stimulus package – with Trump turning his fire on the Democrats for hampering his recovery efforts. If nothing materialises, expect the blame game to continue right down to the wire. Who comes out the wrong side of that argument could still swing this election, although it’s worth bearing in mind that early voting is already well underway.
Finally, could lightning strike twice?
Trump only had the narrowest of paths to Electoral College victory in 2016, but he pulled it off without needing to win the popular vote. That that was partly helped by some smart campaigning decisions in the weeks leading up to polling day. While Hillary Clinton mistakenly assumed several swing states were in the bag in the closing weeks of the election, Trump was relentless with his travel schedule to knife-edge states, and those last-minute visits may have concentrated minds among floating voters.
Trump’s shock win was arguably helped by the distrust of Clinton, particularly in the ‘blue wall’ states – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – that flipped into Republican hands.
His chances in 2020 could depend on how many of those voters have stayed with him after a breakneck four years, but there’s no doubt the president has an even tighter route to victory this time around. Joe Biden – while by no means a perfect candidate – is not nearly as divisive a figure as Trump’s unpopular 2016 opponent.
The president may have to hope ‘Sleepy Joe’ and the Democrats have been caught napping again if he is to pull off another US election betting upset.
Next US President – Current Odds*
Donald Trump – 6/4
Joe Biden – 27/50
*Odds correct as of 21/10/2020.
