BetOnline Odds Boosters for Monday, October 26

Monday is an off day for the World Series, so we’ll have to wait until tomorrow night to see whether the Los Angeles Dodgers will be able to close out the Tampa Bay Rays. In the meantime, we’ve got a matchup between the LA Rams and Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football. BetOnline is also offering boosted odds centered around the US presidential election, with Election Day just a week from tomorrow.

Let’s do a little digging with an eye on unearthing some betting value on this Monday.

Politics: Republican To Win Florida Electoral College Vote (+100)

Donald Trump managed to eke out a win back in 2016 because just about every swing state on the map happened to swing in his direction. One of those was Florida, which wound up playing a huge part in Trump’s unexpected win. All 29 of the Sunshine State’s electoral votes went to Trump, which is part of why he’s currently in the White House.

Trump is a betting underdog in this year’s election against Joe Biden. BetOnline currently has Biden as a -200 favorite, which are the most favorable odds the former vice president has seen over the course of the entire election cycle. BetOnline also has state-specific electoral college props, which means you can bet on which candidate will win all 50 individual states.

As of this writing, Trump and the Republicans are -140 favorites to take Florida, with Biden and the Democrats checking in at +110. Polling has had the race incredibly tight in Florida for months, which should come as no surprise. It seems as though Florida is one of the toss-up states every four years, no matter what.

FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages from Florida give Biden an edge. Biden sits at 49 percent in the latest polling averages, with Trump checking in at 46.8 percent. The ex-VP had a lead of about eight percentage points in some polling in Florida over the summer, but the race seems to have tightened as we enter the final stretch.

Trump beat Hillary Clinton 49 percent to 47.8 percent in 2016, but Barack Obama took Florida in both of his election victories in 2008 and 2012.

Politics: Joe Biden To Win US Presidential Election (-180)

It’s rare that we see an odds booster with minus-money odds, but that’s what we have here. The -180 number on Biden to win is slightly more favorable than BetOnline’s standard -200 odds, so I suppose this does qualify as a boost.

At this time four years ago, the race between Clinton and Trump was tightening. While Clinton was still a massive betting favorite on Election Day, most polling averages had the candidates separated by about two percentage points nationally.

The FBI announced that it was reopening an investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server on October 28, just a few days before the election. While the investigation ultimately turned up nothing, the announcement alone was enough to help swing the race in Trump’s direction.

While Trump has tried everything in his power to try and recreate the same corrupt vibe around Biden, polls indicate that the general electorate isn’t buying it. As of right now, FiveThirtyEight’s national polling averages have Biden at 51.8 percent overall, which puts him a whopping 8.7 percentage points in front of his opponent (43.1 percent). Polling isn’t an exact science, but it does give us decent insight into how things are playing out.

It’s easy to see why Biden is so heavily favored right now, about a week before polls close.

NFL: Rams to Win AND Over 45.5 Points (+200)

Hey, we also have sports on the schedule! The Los Angeles Rams will open as six-point favorites at home tonight over the Chicago Bears in a matchup between potential NFC contenders. While both teams have gotten off to hot starts, NFL betting sites aren’t necessarily buying either of them as legitimate Super Bowl challengers quite yet. The 4-2 Rams are listed at just +2200 to win Super Bowl 55, while the 5-1 Bears face even longer +3300 odds.

Chicago being 5-1 is somewhat remarkable when you consider they haven’t’ really gotten good quarterback play. Mitch Trubisky has already been benched, and Nick Foles hasn’t exactly torn things up in his place. Chicago also hasn’t faced the toughest schedule. Their one-point win over the Buccaneers looks impressive, but their other four victories have come against also-rans in the Lions, Giants, Falcons, and Panthers.

The Rams play in the stacked NFC West, but they have largely feasted on the disastrous NFC East to this point. All four of the Rams’ wins have come over NFC East teams, so it’s fair to say they haven’t passed a very stiff test yet. Their two losses have come against the only legitimate contenders they’ve faced (Buffalo, San Francisco).

Still, the Rams have enough pieces left over from their Super Bowl run two years ago to where it’s not unfathomable to think that they should be a good team. Can we trust the over on 45.5 points, though? Games involving the Rams and Bears have an over-under record of just 4-8 so far this season.

NFL: David Montgomery to Score First Touchdown (+675)

With Tarik Cohen done for the year, the Bears are relying more heavily on David Montgomery to get the job done on the ground. The former Iowa State standout hasn’t been overly impressive so far this season, with an average of just 3.7 yards per carry through his first 82 attempts. He has also scored just twice through the season’s first six games, with his lone rushing score coming back in Week 2.

The Chicago Bears have also been one of the most pass-happy teams in football so far this season. The Bears have run the ball on just 35.9 percent of their total plays, which ranks 29th in the league. Montgomery carried the ball 19 times in Week 1, but he hasn’t accrued more than 16 totes in any of the five games since.

What’s The Best Bet?

David Montgomery to score the first touchdown in tonight’s Bears-Rams game offers the most appealing odds here at +675, but it’s also a major risk. Montgomery should still get a decent chunk of the carries in this one, but the Bears have been a team that prefers to take to the air so far in 2020. A low-dollar flier on this one is fine given the boosted odds, but I don’t love it.

I do think the Rams should win this game, but the lack of fans in attendance means they won’t have any sort of home-field advantage.

Fortunately, we don’t have to worry about a spread here. All they have to do is win the game outright, which they should. The sticking point is the over on 45.5 points. Neither offense has been firing on all cylinders early this season, and both teams actually boast solid defenses, too. Pass on the two-way NFL result.

It’s interesting that BetOnline has Republicans favored to win Florida when recent polling has it the other way around. Polls aren’t perfect, of course, and Florida always seems to throw a wrench into things when it comes to presidential elections.

The -180 odds on Biden winning the election don’t represent a major shift from the standard -200 odds you’ll currently see at BetOnline, but this looks like the best bet on the board today. Could something happen that damages Biden’s chances between now and November 3? It’s possible, but millions of votes have already been cast in this election. I think the safe play is Biden to win at -180.