NBA Free Agency: Is Fred VanVleet a Lock to Leave the Raptors?

It’s the middle of November, which can only mean one thing: NBA…free agency? Sure!

2020 has been a weird year, so it makes all the sense in the world that the NBA free agency period will overlap with Thanksgiving. We’re used to seeing the league’s wild offseason commence during the summer months, but the 2019-20 season didn’t end until October as a result of the pandemic.

So, the league has had to change its plans accordingly. Earlier this week, the players agreed to start a truncated 72-game schedule just before Christmas. The NBA draft will take place a week from now, with the free agency period slated to get underway shortly thereafter.

With training camps scheduled to begin about a week after free agency starts, this is sure to be one of the wildest NBA offseasons in recent memory. BetOnline.ag is giving you the opportunity to bet on some of the action. The site has fresh props posted on whether certain free agents will stay with their current teams or find new homes before the new campaign gets going.

How should you bet on the upcoming NBA free agency frenzy?

Will Carmelo Anthony Stay in Portland?

• Yes (-250)
• No (+175)

Carmelo Anthony’s pro career looked to be on the rocks around this time last year before the Portland Trail Blazers came calling. Portland needed some reinforcements in the froncourt following an early-season injury to Zach Collins. Anthony hadn’t played since his brief 10-game stint with the Rockets to begin the 2018-19 season, but he immediately showed up in Portland and contributed.

Melo started all 58 regular-season games in which he appeared for the Blazers last season. The future Hall of Famer averaged 15.4 points while shooting better than 38 percent from three-point range. His defensive shortcomings are obvious at this stage of his career, but it’s also clear that the 36-year-old still has some gas left in that tank.

According to @NYPost_Berman, the Knicks still plan to pursue Carmelo Anthony in free agency

Melo would reportedly “be eager to join the Knicks” if they land Chris Paul

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) November 6, 2020

At this stage of his career, Anthony certainly won’t command a huge deal on the free agent market. Portland may well be able to sign him for some portion of the mid-level exception, if not the league minimum. He was able to help the Blazers squeak into the playoffs, but should he be a priority for Portland?

Probably not. The Blazers have Collins ready to start at power forward, with Gary Trent Jr. and Rodney Hood waiting in the wings. Trevor Ariza is also on the books for next season. Melo came aboard after the Blazers were hit by some early-season injuries, but I’m not sure his services are really needed here next season.

As much as Melo may want to stay in Portland, I think the smart money is on a move this offseason. I’d take a shot on “no” at +175 when it comes to Anthony re-signing with the Trail Blazers because of the betting value it presents.

Will the Pistons Keep Christian Wood?

• Yes (-250)
• No (+175)

The 2019-20 season was a dismal one for the Pistons, but Christian Wood was one of the few bright spots. Wood has bounced around the league for the last several years, but he was able to break out in a starring role late in the year after the Pistons traded Andre Drummond to Cleveland.

Wood finished the season with relatively modest averages of 13.1 points and 6.3 rebounds per game, but his numbers down-the-stretch were spectacular. Wood averaged 19.3 points and nine rebounds per game after getting more minutes in February, while he was up to 26.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in six games in March before the season was cut short.

Detroit is a rebuilding squad, and Wood is looking at a potentially major payday this winter. He’s sitll only 25, and he showed late in the season that he is worth an investment. Other than Blake Griffin, there aren’t any foundational pieces on the Pistons’ roster right now. Detroit has the ability to re-sign Wood without dipping too far into their $30 million worth of cap space thanks to holding his Early Bird Rights.

I recently wrote about three possible destinations for Christian Wood, and the Phoenix Suns are one of them. https://t.co/v4SViwv08B

— Duncan Smith (@DuncanSmithNBA) November 12, 2020

He’s likely to command an eight-figure salary, so we’ll see whether the Pistons are willing to fork over that kind of dough. However, Detroit has to be somewhat smart about this. If Wood is getting offers well north of $10 million a year from other teams, the Pistons will lose some of that coveted cap space. On the flip side, I’m not sure too many big-time free agents are dying to take their talents to the Motor City in the midst of a rebuild, though. Wood may well be the best player Detroit can realistically sign on the free agent market.

While any team can money-whip an unrestricted free agent like this, I think the Pistons would be smart to make Wood their top priority this offseason. As a result, I think he stays right where he is.

Will Davis Bertans Re-Sign With the Wizards?

• Yes (-140)
• No (EVEN)

Davis Bertans declined to join the Wizards at the Disney World bubble because he is going to get paid this offseason. Rather than risk long-term injury playing in eight meaningless games for a team outside the playoff picture, Bertans decided to prioritize his own future. Smart man.

The Wizards supported Bertans’ decision, which is a clear indication that they’re hoping to bring him back to DC. Washington essentially got Bertans for free in a trade with the Spurs last offseason, and he proceeded to enjoy the best season of his career in his first go-round with the Wizards.

Davis Bertans is expected to receive interest from multiple teams eyeing sign-and-trade scenarios in free agency, @NBCSWashington has learned. That’s in addition to teams with cap room looking to sign him outright.

Details: https://t.co/kmqDDRAZze

— Chase Hughes (@ChaseHughesNBCS) November 9, 2020

The Latvian Laser averaged a career-high 15.4 points while shooting better than 42 percent from long range. Bertans is really the ideal modern big man with his ablity to space the floor, so he’ll be a hot commodity once he hits the market.

The Wizards have plenty of room to keep him, so don’t be surprised if Washington shows up at his door with a lucrative offer the second free agency opens. The Wiz declined to trade the sharpshooter at the deadline because they liked their chances of keeping him in the fold. Washington can afford to pay him more than any other team as a free agent, so I’d be surprised if Bertans started the new season in a different uniform so consider taking the “Yes” option at NBA betting sites.

Will Goran Dragic Stay With the Heat?

• Yes (-350)
• No (+225)

The Heat enjoyed a Cinderella run all the way to the NBA Finals. They were beaten in six games by the Lakers, though, thanks in large part to the injury suffered by Goran Dragic in Game 1. Dragic was arguably Miami’s MVP of the playoffs heading into the Finals, but an early foot injury essentially derailed the Heat’s chances of pulling the upset.

Dragic just finished the last year of a deal that paid him over $19 million. Now 34, it’s likely he’ll have to take a paycut regardless of where he goes. While he is clearly still an impactful player, it’s hard to imagine a player his age commanding upwards of $20 million in salary.

Vacation + workout 😁 pic.twitter.com/2u4FKsxtEX

— Goran Dragić (@Goran_Dragic) November 8, 2020

Dragic essentially forced his way to Miami back in 2015, so it’s fair to assume he likes being where he is. The fact that the Heat are fresh off a Finals berth likely hasn’t done much to sway his enthusiasm for sticking around.

Will Dragic ink a team-friendly deal to stay in Miami so that the Heat can preserve enough cap space to make a run for another star next offseason? It’s possible, if not incredibly likely. While contenders will surely sniff around and gauge the interest in the Slovenian guard in a departure, the smart bet is that he stays in South Beach.

Will Brooklyn Retain Joe Harris?

• Yes (-140)
• No (EVEN)

There is a lot of excitement around the Brooklyn Nets. Kevin Durant will return after missing all of last season with an Achilles issue, while Steve Nash is set to make his debut as an NBA head coach. Kyrie Irving will also return from his season-ending shoulder injury to join what is otherwise a young and interesting roster.

The Nets are interested in keeping him, but he’s also expected to receive interest from teams like the Bucks, Knicks, and Heat. Brooklyn is able to go over the salary cap to keep Harris. With ownership already paying the luxury tax, paying a little extra to re-sign Harris likely wouldn’t be all that damaging to Brooklyn’s bottom line.

Still, the Nets are a team that may be looking to add another star-caliber player to plug in alongside Durant and Irving. Harris likely won’t be willing to take a paycut after making around $7 million last season. He can get a bigger deal elsewhere, and we’re likely to see another team offer more than Brooklyn may be willing to.

Losing Harris will be a big blow to the Nets, but it’s fairly likely to happen. Don’t be surprised if the Nets let Harris walk while trying to keep the powder dry in search of another star.

Will Fred VanVleet Re-Sign With the Raptors?

• Yes (-160)
• No (+120)

Two years ago, Fred VanVleet was a fairly unknown role player for the Raptors. Two years later, he may become the biggest name on the free agent market. After helping Toronto to the championship two years ago with another solid showing last season, the Raptors will face plenty of competition when it comes to signing the 26-year-old.

VanVleet has essentially been the Robin to Kyle Lowry’s Batman in the Toronto backcourt over the past couple of years. While the Raptors have built a steady contender, VanVleet is the kind of player that may be looking to spread his wings on a new team.

In an appearance on JJ Redick’s podcast earlier this week, VanVleet said, “I’m trying to get paid, man. I am not shy about that.” The former Wichita State standout made $9 million last season. His salary next season may be more than double that amount.

So let me see if I’ve got this straight

Fred VanVleet, supremely confident young man and excellent player, told a podcast he’d like to be paid commensurate with his skills by an organization that respects him.

This is news?

The coming season cannot start soon enough

— Doug Smith: Raptors (@SmithRaps) November 11, 2020

VanVleet is a good bet to leave Toronto. Teams like the Hawks and Knicks have already registered interest, and both teams may be willing to offer him more money than the Raptors might. Toronto has a long-term salary obligation to Pascal Siakam, but beyond Lowry’s $30 million salary next season, their books are somewhat clean.

VanVleet added, “I am only four years in, but I feel like I am on the verge of blossoming even more with even more of a lead role and taking more responsibility in my game.” That sure makes it sound like VanVleet is prepared to leave Toronto if a better option comes calling.

You can get plus-money odds on the budding star to leave the Raptors for a new home this offseason. Don’t be surprised if he winds up signing one of the biggest deals of any player on the market this winter. VanVleet won’t be back in Toronto, so grab the +120 odds on “no.”