Mavericks at Rockets NBA Pick for January 4

The 2020-21 NBA season is officially in full swing. We’ve got nine games on the hardwood for tonight, which means you have all sorts of options at your disposal if you’re an NBA bettor. One of the more fun games on the schedule pits a pair of division rivals against one another down in Houston.

The Rockets, who have bounced back with a pair of wins following their 0-2 start, will play host to Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Dallas fell on Sunday night in Chicago with Doncic sidelined due to a quad injury, but the All-Star guard is expected to return to the lineup tonight. The Mavericks are 4.5-point underdogs on the road in a game with an over/under of 229.5 points.

Rockets at Full Strength

James Harden was originally questionable for this game after spraining his ankle in the Rockets’ New Year’s Eve win over the Kings. Harden missed Saturday’s game against Sacramento as a result of the injury, but the team’s morning injury report listed the former MVP as “available.”

So, Harden will join John Wall in the backcourt for the second time this season. Wall and Harden combined for 55 points, 17 assists, and 12 rebounds in their first game together late last week, so Stephen Silas suddenly has a high-octane backcourt to throw at Dallas tonight.

Harden’s usage hasn’t taken much of a hit this season. While the Rockets may no longer be thought of as legitimate title contenders, this team still has plenty of upside if Harden sticks around. Last year’s scoring champion has played well early on despite having asked the team to trade him before the season began.

Harden is the NBA’s scoring leader early on this season with an average of 37 points per game through his first three outings. He hasn’t been held below 33 points in any game thus far, and Wall may prove to be an even better fit alongside him than Russell Westbrook was last season.

Harden has also formed a nice partnership early on with Christian Wood, who inked a $41 million deal to come to Houston from Detroit this offseason. Wood is averaging 23.8 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting nearly 56 percent from the field through his first four games in a Rockets uniform.

Houston will likely be a popular “over” bet this season. Houston has all sorts of offensive firepower, but they’re lacking much ability at the other end of the floor. The over has hit in three of the Rockets’ first four games of the new campaign, which is hardly a surprise given their personnel.

Luka Show for Dallas

The Mavericks predictably struggled to generate much offense with Doncic sidelined on Sunday night. Jalen Brunson played an excellent game in Luka’s place, but Brunson doesn’t come close to filling Doncic’s do-everything role for Rick Carlisle’s offense.

Fortunately for the Mavs, the quad injury that kept him out of last night’s game isn’t a serious one. Doncic should be able to play without a minutes restriction tonight, as Dallas has no reason to risk their most prized player early in the year.

The Mavericks were a trendy pick to challenge some of the Western Conference’s frontrunners this season, but the team has gotten off to a rather inauspicious 2-4 start. Luka’s shooting woes have certainly played a role. While he’s still averaging 24.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game, Doncic has really struggled with his shot early on. Luka is shooting just 43.2 percent from the field and a miserable 16.1 percent from three-point range.

With Kristaps Porzingis still recovering from a knee injury, Doncic is clearly the driving force in the Dallas offense early on. Brunson, Trey Burke, and Josh Richardson have had their moments, but this team goes as Luka goes.

Dallas posted the highest offensive efficiency in NBA history last season with Doncic running the show. The offense was always going to take a step back with Porzingis sidelined and Seth Curry having been traded, but it’s only a matter of time until they get back on track in that regard.

What’s the Best Bet?

While the addition of Richardson should help solidify the Mavs’ defense over the course of the full season, this was still a below-average defensive unit a year ago. Dallas allowed 109.5 points per 100 possessions last season, which ranked just 19th in the NBA. A historically great offense helped carry them to a playoff spot, but defensive improvement is needed for this team to take the next step.

Given Houston’s aforementioned struggles on that end, it’s fair to expect a high-scoring game in this one tonight. This Rockets roster was built to score, so it comes as no surprise that they’re currently seventh in the league in offensive rating. This despite the fact that the team has had its full complement of players just once through the first four games.

With Luka and Harden both back and healthy, this is shaping up to be a shootout tonight. A tight spread means both team should have their starters playing a full complement of minutes, and that bodes well for the potential for a high-scoring affair. I’m not sold enough on Houston’s defense to have much faith in their ability to cover the spread here, but the over on 229.5 points looks a bit low.

Dallas facing a back-to-back may mean some tired legs defensively, but Doncic should be fresh after taking last night off. The over on 229.5 points looks like a great way to attack this game from a betting perspective on Monday night.