Pick: Bills -6.5
Odds: -113
$100 Could Win You…$188.50
On Saturday, January 9th, the NFL Playoffs get underway with an AFC Wild Card game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills.
The Colts secured the 7th seed and the final Wild Card spot by defeating the Jaguars in Week 17 along with getting some help from the Bills who crushed the Miami Dolphins.
The Buffalo Bills are the #2 seed in the AFC and look like the most dangerous team in the Playoffs not named the Chiefs. This is their first home Playoff game since 1996.
Can the Colts pull off the upset or will the Bills get their first Playoff win since the 90s? Kickoff inside Bills Stadium is at 1:05PM ET.
Saturday is going to be a huge challenge. 😤 #INDvsBUF
Bills coaches look ahead to playoff matchup with Colts: https://t.co/a8sY5OWiPd pic.twitter.com/dEKPAKztX4
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 5, 2021
Colts vs Bills Live Odds and Betting History
The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
| Teams | Spread | Money Lines | Totals |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | +6.5 (-107) | +255 | Over 51 (-110) |
| Buffalo Bills | -6.5 (-113) | -305 | Under 51 (-110) |
| Betting Data | Indianapolis Colts | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 Record | 11-5 | 13-3 |
| 2020 Home | 6-2 | 7-1 |
| 2020 Away | 5-3 | 6-2 |
| 2020 ATS | 8-8 | 11-5 |
| 2020 ATS Home | 3-5 | 6-2 |
| 2020 ATS Away | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| 2020 O/U | 9-7 | 11-4-1 |
| 2020 O/U Home | 3-5 | 5-3 |
| 2020 O/U Away | 6-2 | 6-1-1 |
Colts vs Bills AFC Wild Card Game Preview
These former divisional foes have played against each other 70 times. The Bills lead the all-time series with a 37-32-1 record. Buffalo has won three of the last five matchups. The Bills are 23-13 at home versus the Colts and have also won three straight at Orchard Park.
This will be the first time these two teams have played against each other in the Playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts Summary
The Indianapolis Colts finished the season 11-5 and earned a Wild Card spot with a Week 17 win against the Jaguars combined with a loss by the Dolphins.
Indy went 4-2 into their Week 7 Bye, but lacked any signature wins as they were all against teams that finished with records of .500 or less.
After losing to the Ravens in Week 9, and dropping to 5-3 on the season, the Colts went 6-2 in the second half of the season with big wins over the Titans and Packers.
They’ve won four of their last five games and their rushing attack was the best in the league other than the Titans.
This will be Indy’s 15th Playoff appearance since 2000. They last made the Playoffs two years ago where they beat the Texans in the Wild Card round before losing to the Chiefs in the Divisional round.
The Colts are 7-6 all-time in the Wild Card round and 23-24 all-time in the Playoffs.
Buffalo Bills Summary
The Buffalo Bills (13-3) enter the postseason red hot. If it weren’t for a Hail Mary pass play against the Cardinals, the Bills would enter the Playoffs on a 10 game winning streak. Instead, they won nine of their last 10 games.
Buffalo started off the season 4-0 before losing two games in five days against the Chiefs and the Titans. After that, they went on their best stretch of the season and ended up sweeping the AFC East division for the first time in team history.
Furthermore, the Bills tied their most wins with 13 this year. QB Josh Allen broke every major Buffalo passing record and WR Stefon Diggs became the first Bills receiver to ever lead the NFL in receptions or yards. He led in both this year.
Until Sean McDermott, who should win the Coach of the Year award, and GM Brandon Beane came to Buffalo, this team was mired in a Playoff drought.
Now, the Bills have made the postseason in three of the four years under McDermott and Beane. They haven’t won a Playoff game since 1995. They haven’t hosted a postseason game since 1996.
Buffalo is 14-17 all-time in the Playoffs and 3-5 in the Wild Card round. They’ve lost five straight Wild Card games including last year’s OT heartbreaker at Houston after leading 16-0 at halftime.
Head to Head Betting Trends
- Colts are 7-3 SU in last 10 meetings
- Colts are 5-4-1 ATS in last 10 games
- Under is 7-3 in last 10 matchups
- Bills are 4-2 ATS in last six meetings
- Bills are 3-0 SU in last three home contests
Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends
- 4-1 SU in last five games
- 4-1 SU in last five AFC games
- 2-5 SU when Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5pts
- 5-14 SU as an Underdog
- 12-14 SU in last 26 road games
- 4-4 SU against winning teams this year
- 7-6 SU in Wild Card games
- 2-4 ATS in last six games
- 2-5 ATS in last seven AFC East games
- 7-6 ATS in Wild Card games
- Over is 5-1 in last six road games
- Over is 8-4 in last 12 games
Buffalo Bills Betting Trends
- 6-0 SU in last six games
- 5-0 SU in last five home games
- 4-12 SU in last 16 January games
- 10-2 SU in AFC games this year
- 11-1 SU as a Favorite of 3.5 to 9.5pts
- 11-5 SU following a divisional game
- 8-0 ATS in last eight games
- 5-0 ATS in last five AFC games
- 11-5 ATS this season
- 6-2 ATS in home games this year
- 9-3 ATS in turf games this year
- 4-3 ATS in last seven AFC South games
- Under is 7-2 in last nine AFC South games
The spread opened with the Buffalo Bills favored as high as 7.5 points. It has come down to 6.5 points with most NFL betting sites. The Over/Under opened at 52 points and has come down to an O/U of 51 total points.
Free AFC Wild Card Sports Bet and Prediction: Bills -6.5 (-113)
The opening game of the Wild Card round might just be the best matchup of the entire weekend. We have two winning teams entering the Playoffs with momentum. The Bills went 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Colts went 6-2 in their last eight games.
The Colts had a long stretch of beating the Bills when Peyton Manning was at the helm, but Buffalo has turned things around over the last few years.
Another major storyline heading into this game is the return of Frank Reich. The Colts head coach is a beloved figure in Bills history. He was the QB the last time that Buffalo won 13 games in a season as he had to start after Jim Kelly was injured. Reich was with Buffalo for 10 years.
With that in mind, there are a few key matchups that will shape the outcome of this game.
Bills Run Defense vs Colts Rushing Attack
The strength of the Colts offense is their rushing attack led by rookie RB Jonathan Taylor who finished the season with 1,168 rushing yards which was 4th best this season. His 11 rushing TDs was tied for the most among rookie running backs.
Backup RB Nyheim Hines chipped in 380 rushing yards and 482 receiving yards on 63 receptions. He added seven total TDs this year.
Look who is coming to Buffalo#Bills #Colts pic.twitter.com/PomRnyGxJY
— Mike Catalana (@MikeCatalana) January 4, 2021
The Colts offense finished 10th in total yards this season at 378.1ypg. They were 10th in passing at 253.3ypg, 11th in rushing at 124.8ypg, and 9th in scoring at 28.2ppg. Yet, they put up 30.3ppg in the second half of the season.
The Bills biggest weakness this season was against the run as they ranked 17th with an average allowance of 119.6ypg. They were gashed on the ground in their losses against the Chiefs and Titans. Yet, as the defense has gotten healthier, they have played their best football down the stretch.
Indy will have a slight advantage in this matchup, but will it be enough to keep up the scoring with Buffalo.
Colts Pass Defense vs Bills Air Raid
The Colts feature the 2nd ranked run defense, but their biggest weakness is against the pass. Indy is 20th against the pass as they give up 241.6ypg.
Buffalo is 2nd in total offense at 396.4ypg, 2nd in scoring at 31.3ppg, and 3rd in passing yards at 288.8ypg. Josh Allen has been amazing this year as he’s broken every Bills passing record. He finished with 4,544 passing yards, 37 passing TDs, just 10 INTs, an 82.3 QBR, and 46 total TDs.
His top target was Stefon Diggs who led the NFL with 1,535 yards and 127 receptions. He also had 8 TDs. Diggs will have his fellow receivers Cole Beasley and John Brown ready to capitalize on any double teams that the Colts might use on Digs.
This is a big advantage for Buffalo. In fact, it’s an advantage that will most likely cost the Colts the game.
The X-Factor: Philip Rivers
39 year old Philip Rivers just completed his 8th straight season of throwing for over 4,000 yards. Rivers is an immobile QB and he will need the best o-line in football to protect him. On the season, Rivers was only sacked 19 times.
In the Playoffs, Rivers has a 5-6 record in his 11 career postseason games. If the erratic gun slinger shows up in Buffalo this weekend, the Colts are in trouble. If the precision passer that makes good decisions shows up, then the Colts have a fighting chance.
Betting Trends to Consider
For the Bills, they went 10-2 SU in AFC games this year, 11-1 SU as a Favorite of 3.5 to 9.5pts, 7-1 SU in home games this season, 8-0 ATS in their last eight games to close out the year.
The Colts are 2-5 SU when an Underdog of 3.5 to 9.5pts, 5-14 SU as an Underdog, 12-14 SU in their last 26 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC East games.
Bills Win by More Than a TD
With the way Buffalo has been playing, it’s hard to pick against them especially at home with a limited crowd. They have an edge and a swagger about them that translates onto the field where they continue to shine.
Josh Allen accounted for 85.5% of the #Bills touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers accounted for 79.8% of the Packers touchdowns.
You tell me who’s more valuable…#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/ku81I8Cyz7
— Buffalo Sports Talk (@BUFSportsTalk) January 5, 2021
I don’t see Buffalo blowing out the Colts like they’ve done against many of their recent opponents, but I do believe the Bills will win by at least a TD.
Josh Allen will sling the ball all over the field and run when he needs to. The Colts are good against the run, but they did give up 58 rushing yards and a TD to Lamar Jackson this year in a losing effort. And, Derrick Henry also put up 178 yards on this defense the last time they played.
So, Indy is susceptible of breaking in the run defense. And, with the Colts trying to slow down the passing attack, the Bills run game could find some success. Look for Buffalo to avenge their Wild Card loss of last year with a solid win over the Colts.
Colts vs Bills Betting Recap:
- Oddsmaker: BetOnline
- Moneylines: Colts (+255) vs Bills (-305)
- Spread: Bills -6.5 (-113)
- Over/Under: 51 total points (-110)
- Prediction: Bills 28 – Colts 21
Colts vs Bills Pick
Bills -6.5 (-113)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
