The Divisional Round of the Playoffs was filled with storylines from home field advantage to the last two NFL MVPs getting knocked out of their games with a concussion.
With NFL betting sites, the storylines saw the Home teams going 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. For the postseason, Home teams are 5-5 SU and 5-5 ATS. They went 125-124-1 SU and 123-125-2 ATS during the regular season.
The Favorites went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS with only the Saints losing outright. Joining the Saints in failing to cover the spread was the Chiefs. In the Playoffs, the Favorites are now 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS. During the season the Favorites went 170-79-1 SU and 113-135-2 ATS.
The Under went 3-1 in the Divisional Round with only the Packers vs the Rams going Over. The Under has the edge in the Playoffs with a 5-4-1 record. On the season, the Over was 123-120-7.
Let’s huddle up to take a look at the best bets for the Championship Round of the 2021 NFL season. Betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Quick Recap of the Best Bets for the Divisional Round
In the Divisional Round, we went 3-1 with the following NFL wagers:
- Rams Cover Spread vs Packers
- Bills Defeat the Ravens
- Browns Cover Double Digit Spread
- Bucs to Cover a Field Goal
The lone loss last weekend was the Rams failing to cover a touchdown spread. It was a disappointing performance considering they had the best defense in the league.
We knew their offense would struggle, but not many people expected the Rams to give up 32 points. It should be noted that Aaron Donald was clearly struggling due to his injuries and that changed the course of the game.
The Bills came away with a 17-3 win over the Ravens and easily covered the spread. It was a strong defensive performance in very windy conditions.
The Browns almost pulled off the comeback against the Chiefs after KC’s quarterback Patrick Mahomes was knocked out of the game due to a concussion. Although they fell short of a victory, the Browns still covered the spread only losing by five points.
Not only did the Buccaneers cover the field goal spread, but they won outright. Tampa Bay played a solid game on both sides of the ball and beat the Saints 30 to 20.
It was nice coming away with a solid 3-1 record in the Divisional Round. That makes up for a 1-2 record in the Wild Card Round. We’re now 4-3 in the Playoffs and 46-27-1 overall on the season heading into the Conference Championship games.
Bucs to Score Over 23 Points (-120)
In Tampa Bay’s two Playoff games, they’ve scored 30.5ppg versus the Saints and the WFT. During the regular season, they averaged 30.8ppg which was the 3rd best in the league behind the Packers and the Bills.
In their regular season matchup this year, the Buccaneers crushed the Packers 38 to 10. I don’t see a similar score in this matchup as I believe the Packers will win the game. But, I do see Tampa Bay scoring at least 23 points.
Tampa has the 2nd ranked pass offense that averaged 289.1ypg going up against the 7th ranked pass defense that allowed 221.2ypg.
Brady has thrown for an average of 290ypg and 2 TDs in the Playoffs. I expect Brady to throw at least two TDs again this weekend and lead the Bucs to 24 to 27 points which will put us Over the mark.
For more on this game, check out our NFC Championship Betting Preview.
Bills Cover The Spread +3 (-105)
Here’s the trick with this spread. Once Patrick Mahomes has officially exited the concussion protocol, and announced ready for the game, I expect this spread to go back up to 5 points where it opened at.
Keeping it clean for the AFC Championship game. 🤩#BUFvsKC | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/aS8JkLyR3N
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 20, 2021
I prefer the Bills at +5 than +3. However, I would take it at anything +3.5 points and up. So, keep an eye for this movement over the next few days. If it doesn’t go up then buy a half point.
The Chiefs are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games, 0-5 ATS in their last five homes games and 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against Buffalo.
The Bills are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, and 9-0 SU in their last nine AFC games.
The Chiefs allowed 22.9ppg (11th) during the season and their pass defense allowed 236.2ypg which was 14th best. Buffalo averaged 31.3ppg and 288.8 passing ypg.
I believe the Bills passing attack will have success against the Chiefs this weekend, but watch for their running game. The Browns showed that the Chiefs can be run on. Allen’s arm and legs will keep Buffalo in this game help them to cover the spread.
For more on this game, check out our AFC Championship Betting Preview.
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
