On February 14th, the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season gets underway with 63rd running of the Daytona 500. It’s fitting that NASCAR’s “Super Bowl of racing” comes one week after the NFL’s SB 55 game.
The 2020 Cup Series season saw Chase Elliott come away with the championship after a thrilling run through the Playoffs. There was plenty of drama in the postseason, which more than made up for the modified regular season due to the pandemic.
With that said, there are some exciting storylines heading into the 2021 season including a few new races, tweaks to packages, and a field without the great Jimmie Johnson.
NASCAR betting sites released their futures bet on which driver will win the 2021 Cup Series Championship. Let’s take a closer look at this prop bet, identify any value, and see if we can make a championship winning prediction.
.@ChaseElliott‘s new @NAPARacing look for 2021! 👀 pic.twitter.com/ENOzKh7S87
— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) January 19, 2021
Recap of 2020 Cup Series Season
The 2020 Cup Series season was unlike any NASCAR season in the history of the sport. With a pandemic shutting down most of the world, NASCAR did a fantastic job pausing and restarting the sport despite the conditions.
The biggest story on the track was the departure of one of the greatest drivers of all-time in Jimmie Johnson. The seven time champ said goodbye to full time racing. Unfortunately, he missed the Playoffs.
Kyle Busch had a disappointing season after winning the championship in 2019. He failed to make the final race of the Playoffs.
Both Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin led the field in wins, Top 5s, Top 10s, Playoff points and laps led. They also fell short in their quest for a champioship.
In the end, it was Chase Elliott who took home the title and establishing himself as one of the best drivers in the sport today. Can the #9 car win a second straight championship in 2021?
Previous Cup Series Champions
The following is a list of the previous winners dating back to 2014 when NASCAR changed over to the current Playoff format:
- 2014 – Kevin Harvick
- 2015 – Kyle Busch
- 2016 – Jimmie Johnson
- 2017 – Martin Truex Jr.
- 2018 – Joey Logano
- 2019 – Kyle Busch
- 2020 – Chase Elliott
Kyle Busch is the only driver to have won the championship twice in the new Playoff format.
NASCAR Betting Odds
The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
- Kevin Harvick (+500)
- Chase Elliott (+600)
- Denny Hamlin (+600)
- Joey Logano (+600)
- Kyle Busch (+600)
- Brad Keselowski (+800)
- Martin Truex Jr (+800)
- Kyle Larson (+1200)
- Ryan Blaney (+1600)
- Alex Bowman (+2800)
- Kurt Busch (+2800)
- Aric Almirola (+3300)
- William Byron (+3300)
- Christopher Bell (+5000)
- Matt DiBenedetto (+5000)
- Cole Custer (+6600)
- Darrell Wallace Jr (+6600)
- Ross Chastain (+8000)
- Tyler Reddick (+8000)
- Austin Dillon (+10000)
- Chase Briscoe (+10000)
- Erik Jones (+10000)
- Ryan Newman (+15000)
- Chris Buescher (+20000)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+20000)
- Daniel Suarez (+25000)
The Betting Favorites
The following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the 2021 Cup Series Championship:
Kevin Harvick (+500)
Harvick has one Championship on his resume and that came in 2014. He’s finished in the Top 5 12 Times in his 20 year career including four years in a row. Furthermore, he’s led the Cup Series in wins in two of the last three seasons.
Last year, Harvick finished with nine wins, but failed to make the Championship race. It was a shock considering he was in the Final 4 race five of the seven years since its inception.
It’s easy to see why the #4 car is the betting favorite heading into the season. Last year, he was a favorite just about every week. He pretty much was first or second in every major category and dominated the field for the entire regular season.
Harvick was the consensus choice to win the Championship heading into the 10 race postseason. And now, he’s the odds on favorite to win the 2021 Cup Series title at most online betting sites.
Chase Elliott (+600)
The 2020 season was a major breakthrough for Chase Elliott. He’s made the Playoffs in all five of his seasons as a full time Cup Series driver, but never finished higher than 5th.
Elliott was on the cusp of elimination more than once in last year’s postseason, but came through like the champion that he is. In the final race, Elliott defied the odds and beat out veteran drivers for the Cup Series championship.
Along the way to a title, Elliott set career highs in wins (5), Top 5s (15), Top 10s (22) and laps led (1247). He also established himself as the sport’s top road course driver.
With at least five road course races planned for the 2021 season, Elliott could be in line for another run at a Cup Series championship.
Denny Hamlin (+600)
The one driver who battled with Kevin Harvick all season long was Denny Hamlin. He finished the year with seven wins and has 13 total wins over the last two seasons. That’s the best stretch of Hamlin’s 16 year career. Only in 2010 did he have more wins with eight.
Heading into the Playoffs last year, Hamlin was on fire. He was the hottest driver in the sport and became a trendy pick to win the Championship. I certainly was one of the masses that felt Hamlin could win the title.
Unfortunately, he finished 4th in the Championship race and fell short of winning his first title.
.@dennyhamlin earned back-to-back wins in 2019 & 2020 at Kansas
Is this good karma for the Chiefs in their pursuit to win back-to-back Super Bowls 🤔
#FlashbackFriday pic.twitter.com/ldmVM96veS— Kansas Speedway (@kansasspeedway) January 22, 2021
The big news for Hamlin heading into the 2021 season is that Denny has partnered up with his friend Michael Jordan to feature their own racing team 23XI Racing with Bubba Wallace as their driver.
Hamlin will still drive for Joe Gibbs Racing. Yet, he obviously will be investing time into his own team.
Furthermore, Hamlin is looking to win his 3rd straight Daytona 500 which would be a historic feat.
Joey Logano (+600)
The 2018 Cup Series champ Joey Logano had a respectable finish as he was 3rd at the conclusion of the 2020 season. Logano ended up being one of the best Team Penske’s drivers and performed well in the Playoffs to earn his 4th trip to the final race.
Logano constantly flies under the radar each and every week. Nevertheless, he’s not under the radar for this prop bet as Logano is tied for the second best betting odds.
Team Penske is going to have its hands full with JGR and Hendrick Motor Sports. Yet, it’s clear that these three teams will lead the field in all major categories and probably another championship.
Kyle Busch (+600)
The 2019 Cup Series champion is looking to rebound from a down year despite making it to the Playoffs. Busch unperformed in every category. In fact, he had his lowest numbers since 2014 when he finished 10th.
His 8th place finish last year was the first time since he finished outside of the Top 4 since 2014. He had a run of five straight Top 4 finishes, which included two first place results and a runner up in 2017.
3 more weeks! 😁 #DAYTONA500 @mmschocolate | #TeamToyota pic.twitter.com/dnpmcrTMUi
— Kyle Busch (@KyleBusch) January 24, 2021
I expect “Rowdy” to return to his high caliber of racing in 2021. He will try to surpass 60 career Cup wins and extend his streak to 17 straight seasons with at least one win during the season. The record is 18 straight seasons by Richard Petty.
Busch can also reach 100 Xfinity Series wins and 60 Camping World Truck wins this year as well. A motivated Kyle Busch is going to be a threat in all three series.
Brad Keselowski (+800)
The 2012 NASCAR champion hasn’t had much success in the current Playoff format until last year when he finished 2nd overall. Prior to that, Keselowski’s best result was 4th. In four of the seven years he finished 7th or worse.
Keselowski won four races last season and finished with 24 Top 10s. His consistency put him in a great position to make the final race where he came up short as Elliott took the title.
This year, I think Keselowski could find more success at least when it comes to Top 5s. He only had 13 last season and zero poles.
Joey Logano gets my vote as the best driver of Team Penske, but Keselowski could be a sleeper. I would wait until his odds drop before considering him an option to wager on for this futures bet.
Martin Truex Jr (+800)
Like his teammate Kyle Busch, the 2017 Cup Series champ Martin Truex Jr. had a down year as well. Although he finished 7th on the season, Truex’s number were down across the board. Prior to last season’s result, Truex had three straight Top 2 finishes.
The #19 car finished with just one win and zero poles. That was the lowest marks since 2015 when he became one of the top drivers in the sport. In 2019, Truex finished with seven wins.
Also like Busch, I expect Truex to have a bounce back season. With so many road courses this year, look for Truex to battle Elliott for the checkered flags. A few road course wins could put the former champ back in the running for another Cup Series title.
The Best Value
The following drivers offer value based on their past success and upcoming potential heading into the season:
Kyle Larson (+1200)
Kyle Larson returns to racing after missing most of the season due to using a racial slur in an iRacing event. It was a terrible mistake by a talented driver. He paid the price as he lost his ride, sponsors, suffered media backlash and more. And, rightfully so.
After doing all he could to make up for the mistake, Larson was reinstated as he also met all of the requirements that NASCAR had put into place in order for Larson to return to racing.
What will @KyleLarsonRacin’s #DAYTONA500 Chevy look like?
Subscribers to our free #HendrickNation email list will be the first to see it: https://t.co/ICP1xBPRQ1 pic.twitter.com/FjL9wjTpEs
— Hendrick Motorsports (@TeamHendrick) January 25, 2021
Now that he’s back, Larson will actually be a contender this year. A big reason why is because he will be driving for Hendrick Motor Sports. He went from an average team to one of the sport’s best.
Larson was arguably the top young driver of the sport prior to last season. Now, that honor goes to Chase Elliott. However, Larson will be teaming up with Elliott this season as Hendrick Motor Sports will be a powerhouse.
Kurt Busch (+2800)
The 2004 Cup Series champ, and older brother of Kyle Busch, finished 10th in the standings last year. Busch has made the Playoffs every year under the current format, but hasn’t finished higher than 7th.
His odds are appropriate considering he hasn’t won a title since 2004. However, he does offer value considering he was a former champ and has made the Playoffs every year since 2014. Furthermore, he’s won at least one race in seven straight seasons.
The Top Longshot
Matt DiBenedetto (+5000) is my pick as the biggest longshot to have any realistic shot at the Championship.
Along with Larson, DiBenedetto is one of the drivers I have rooted for as they came up through the racing circuits due to both of them hailing from near my hometown.
Unlike Larson, DiBenedetto hasn’t won a Cup Series race in his 212 career starts. He did finish runner up in two races last year.
Furthemore, “Matty D.” also made the Playoffs for the first time as he finished 13th on the season.
The reality is, no driver below Ryan Blaney (+1600) in this prop bet has a shot at winning the Championship.
You could make an argument that Alex Bowman (+2800) and William Byron (+3300) are candidates for the longshot, but they’ve barely won more races than DiBenedetto and his odds are a lot higher.
Who Wins the 2021 Cup Series Championship?
I believe the Top 5 drivers this season will be: Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Joey Logano.
Last year, Kevin Harvick was a favorite to win the title, but the season unraveled at Texas. Rodney Childers was very candid when discussing the impact of that disappointment on the No. 4 team, what happened at Martinsville and how they’ve moved forward. https://t.co/b2n5fbTmUL
— Jordan Bianchi (@Jordan_Bianchi) January 20, 2021
What I would do is put wagers on four of these drivers. For me, I would wager on all of them but Logano. If one of the drivers hits, you will still walk away with a profit.
But, since we can only pick one driver for this article, I am taking Kevin Harvick. He’s due for another championship win. Shop around the NASCAR sports betting sites to see if you can get his odds a little bit higher.
Who Wins the 2021 Cup Series? –Harvick (+500)
Rick Rockwell
As a longtime freelance writer, avid sports fan, former athlete, and experienced sports bettor, Rick Rockwell has risen up the ranks at GamblingSites.org to become the self-professed “King of the Blog” in his first year with the site. …
