Recapping Super Bowl 54 Betting

Recapping Super Bowl 54 betting can prove to be more than just an exercise in ancient history. Many of the betting angles that played out in last year’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are likely to be replicated to some extent in this year’s contest. That’s why it’s important to take a look at what happened in the most recent Super Bowl as you prepare for this year’s game and your bets at sportsbooks and sports betting sites.

It’s never too early to start getting ready for your bets on Super Bowl LV, which takes place on Sunday, February 7th, 2021. At the moment that this is being written, we don’t yet know which two teams will be battling it out in the game. But that doesn’t mean that you can’t get in some early preparation so that you’re ahead of the game once you do find out who the combatants will be.

One way you can do that is by looking at past Super Bowls. Going too far back might not help you too much. The way the game is played changes so rapidly that any trends that you might be able to spot from even as recently as five years or so ago might not be helpful to you now. But last year’s game can certainly help you in that department.

The Past as a Predictor

For those who might have forgotten, Super Bowl LIV pitted the Kansas City Chiefs from the AFC and the San Francisco 49ers from the NFC. For much of the game, it looked like the Niners were in control. But that’s when Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes started to come to life, sparking a wild fourth-quarter rally as Kansas City took over for a 31-20 victory, their first Super Bowl title in 50 years.

When you have a game with such a rapid and drastic momentum shift as that one, there are bound to be some wild mood swings from bettors. And that was certainly the case. Following the example of Super Bowl 54, it should prepare you for the fact that a bet or two on this year’s game is likely to be a bumpy ride.

In the following article, we’ll look back at what transpired in Super Bowl 54 from a betting perspective. We’ll review the odds and how that played out. And we’ll try to find some lessons in that game that can help you out when it comes to this year’s contest.

Top Super Bowl LIV Bets

Point Spread

The point spread for Super Bowl 54 featured the Kansas City Chiefs as a 1½-point favorite over the San Francisco Chiefs. It was an indication that the oddsmakers thought it was a closely-matched contest. Only three times in the history of the Super Bowl had there been a point spread that narrow before.

You can understand where the oddsmakers were coming from. The Niners ended with a 13-3 regular season record and dominated the NFC playoffs with two romping victories. Kansas City went 12-4 and won by big margins in both of their AFC playoff games, albeit having to come from behind after early deficits in both.

Even though it could be argued that San Francisco had the more impressive season, oddsmakers took into account that they were still a bit of an upstart that had been an also-ran in previous seasons.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, were a perennial playoff contender. And Kansas City also had the electrifying Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, which certainly would have weighed heavily with the bettors.

The Outcome

The game was as evenly-matched as many thought it would be coming into it for the first half. Kansas City and San Francisco went into halftime in Super Bowl 54 tied at 10, as San Francisco’s rugged defense mostly kept Mahomes in check. But Kansas City’s underrated defense stepped up as well, keeping San Francisco’s vaunted running attach from marching past them, which many thought might happen.

In the third quarter, it looked like the underdog was taking over. San Francisco outscored Kansas City 10-0 in that period and stopped two second-half Chief drives with Mahomes interceptions. With a little more than eight minutes left, things looked desperate for Kansas City, as Mahomes faced a 3rd and 15 from his own 35, and it looked like those who took the Niners with the point-and-a-half were sitting pretty.

But Mahomes managed to scramble long enough on the next play to hit star receiver Tyreek Hill for a 44-yard gain, completely flipping the momentum. Incredibly, the Chiefs scored three touchdowns on all three of their possessions from that point for a 31-20. They covered the spread as the favorite.

The Over/Under

It’s always a tough task for oddsmakers to find the right over/under line for a Super Bowl game. This was especially true in this case because of the contrast of styles. Which would weigh more with the bettors?

On the one hand, Kansas City liked to outscore people, and they could usually do it. With Mahomes flinging to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, there were few defenses that could hang with them. Meanwhile, the Niners featured a feared pass rush and tough secondary, winning with defense and an old-fashioned running game.

As a result of this uncertainty, the over/under fluctuated wildly in the two weeks of Super Bowl 54 betting, bouncing from as low as 51 to as high as 55, depending on what sports betting site or online sportsbook you consulted. It ended up settling right at 53 in most areas.

The Outcome

For most of the game, the under looked like a foregone conclusion in Super Bowl 54. Right from the start, it was clear that the Niners defense wasn’t going to allow any kind of a shootout. And their offense, even though they didn’t steamroll the Kansas City D, was controlling the ball to an extent.

With the score sitting at 20-10 at the end of the third quarter, under 53 was looking more and more like a sure thing for Super Bowl 54 bettors.

But then, the “Mahomes Express” took over; suddenly, the over/under was back in play. Darrel Williams’ 38-yard touchdown jaunt suddenly put the over only a field goal away with a little over a minute remaining.

If San Fran could score a garbage TD or field goal against a Chief defense playing prevent, then over bettors would shockingly come out on top. But Kendall Fuller came up with an interception in the final minute to end all of that. It got dicey for a while, but the under prevailed.

Prop Bet Snapshot

As is usually the case with the biggest game in all of football, Super Bowl 54 proved to be fertile ground for prop bettors. Take a look at some of the most popular ones for bettors in the game.

• National anthem: Demi Lovato took center stage, and most bettors thought she’d stretch the national anthem past two minutes. But instead, she went a bit briefer. The under paid off at +180 on some sites, which is a nice bit of profit for a wager on a song.
• MVP: Bettors and oddsmakers know that one of the quarterbacks wins the Super Bowl MVP more often than now. And Patrick Mahomes’ reputation as one of the football’s true stars made him the obvious choice as favorite. There wasn’t much value to be had at -130, but Mahomes nonetheless cashed in for the chalk players.
• First touchdown: Some of the best value in Super Bowl prop bets comes in predicting which player will score first in the game, simply because there are so many options from which to choose. You wouldn’t think that Mahomes would be a popular choice, but he was bet down from +2100 to +1400. And his scrambling touchdown made for a nice payoff for those who jumped on that bandwagon.
• Last touchdown: Again, this bet gives bettors a chance to make a decent amount on a small wager. Damien Williams had odds of +700 to come up in this spot. And his late touchdown put a smile on his backers’ faces.
• Patrick Mahomes passing yards: Even though Mahomes came through in certain props, he let down those who thought he was going to post huge passing numbers. Oddsmakers put his over/under passing yards total at 305.5. And although he got close with his fourth-quarter heroics, ending up with 286, the under bettors cashed in with a modest -110.

How Sports Bettors Did in Super Bowl LIV

It’s impossible to say how all sports bettors did in terms of wagering on Super Bowl 54. First of all, sports gambling websites located overseas—which can take legal wagers on the Super Bowl from all over the world—don’t usually advertise their numbers. And informal bets made between friends or with local bookmakers obviously aren’t recorded either.

But the general consensus is the house, i.e. those taking the bets and not making them, did very well in Super Bowl 54. Part of that was skewed by some huge bets on San Francisco with the point spread. Still, estimates are that the sportsbooks in Nevada came out 12% on Super Bowl 54, which is a pretty substantial house edge regardless of what type of gambling you’re discussing.

It could have turned out differently, especially if the over/under had landed in the places in between where the line moved, which would have helped “middling” bettors. But the Chiefs covering really turned the tide for the sportsbooks, both online and in physical locations like Las Vegas.

The official handle for Super Bowl 54 ended up at over $154 million, which of course, is a fraction of the actual total when you take into account the uncounted bets we mentioned.

Lessons Sports Bettors Can Learn From Super Bowl 54

It’s an Offensive Game

For years, many bettors stuck with the maxim that a good defense tops a good offense when it comes to Super Bowl betting. The examples of this phenomenon can be found through Super Bowl history, even in the last decades or so. Think of Denver frustrating Cam Newton and Carolina, or Seattle doing the same to Peyton Manning and Denver, or even the New York Giants twice figuring out how to cool the jets of Tom Brady and the Patriots.

But the NFL continues to change in the direction of favoring the offense. You can see it in the higher scores and huge statistics that come up every season. The evolution of spread passing attacks and dual threat quarterbacks have only made it tougher on defensive coordinators.

In Super Bowl 54, the Niners were regarded as having the vastly superior defense. And for three quarters, it looked like the old adage of defense beating offense would hold up. But in the end. the Chiefs’ offensive playmakers were too much, and it’s a good indication of what this year’s game could be like.

Quarterbacks Are Dominant

It’s not fair to single out Jimmy Garoppolo as being inferior to Patrick Mahomes when it comes to the two quarterbacks in Super Bowl 54. Truth be told, it’s hard to think of too many quarterbacks who could claim to be in the same class as Mahomes. But what you can say from last year’s example is that a quarterback disparity makes a big difference in a Super Bowl contest.

When the Chiefs faced adversity in that game last year, Mahomes managed to find ways to make plays, almost out of thin air. Once the tide turned, Garoppolo came up empty when San Francisco had several chances to answer the Kansas City run. There were obviously a lot of factors in the outcome of Super Bowl 54, but you could argue that the play by the quarterbacks was the most important one.

What that means is that you probably want to look at signal-calling first and foremost when it comes to making your Super Bowl LV wager. Obviously, the oddsmakers will factor some of this into the point spread they offer. But when it comes to moneyline bets for Super Bowl 55, going with the better quarterback should serve you well if there’s a big disparity between the two.

Be Ready for a Wild Ride

Let’s face it: Sports betting is not for the faint of heart. And that’s especially true of the Super Bowl, where it seems like the heightened stakes bring out swings in momentum that are far more volatile than the average game. Super Bowl 54 was a perfect indicator of that.

Most Chiefs bettors likely thought they were toast for much of the game. Meanwhile, the Niners backers might have been counting their money.

In the blink of an eye, or at least in the time it took for Mahomes to find Hill on that miraculous third-down conversion, everything changed.

If there’s a lesson to be learned from this, it’s not to go wild trying to offset your perceived losses. Live online sports betting can be effective if you take the time to do it logically and in a vacuum from what has happened to that point in the game. But if you use live betting because you’re emotional about bets you’ve already made that you think you’re about to lose, you could regret it when fortunes change.

Conclusion

Recapping all the betting on Super Bowl 54 should be an effective tool for you when you’re betting on the 2021 Super Bowl LV game. It will help you see where your past bets were made in error or simply to strengthen your conviction on the bets you got right. If nothing else, it can’t hurt to take a look back to be as prepared as possible for what’s to come.