UFC 258 Preliminary Card Betting Preview, Odds and Predictions

On Saturday, February 13^th, the UFC returns to PPV with UFC 258: Usman vs Burns live from their Apex Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. However, before looking at the PPV fights, we’ll take a look at the eight bout preliminary card.

The early portion of the prelims is set to begin at 6:15PM ET on ESPN+ and includes notable fighters like Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher and Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick.

The second round of prelims is set to begin at 8PM ET on ESPN+ and it includes notable fighters like Polyana Viana, Belal Muhammad, Dhiego Lima, Rodolf Vieira, Jim Miller and Bobby Green.

UFC betting sites have released their odds on the full UFC 258 preliminary card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any potential value, and TKO these predictions with a liver punch.

Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick

• Gillian Robertson (+120)
• Miranda Maverick (-140)
• Over (-185)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds

Robertson is the slight underdog in this contest and is looking to bounce back from a loss two months ago via unanimous decision to Taila Santos. She is 6-3 in the octagon having won four of her last six bouts.

Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. She’s 2-3 when going the distance.

Maverick made her UFC debut last October and beat Liana Jojua via TKO due to a doctor’s stoppage. She’s won four straight fights and has seen a decent amount of success in her career when competing for Invicta FC.

Seven of her eight pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. She’s 2-2 when going the distance.

These two fighters are talented and durable. Maverick has never been stopped in a fight and I expect her to keep that going by taking this bout the distance (-145) and Over 2.5 rounds (-185).

Both women can exploit the other’s weaknesses, but I like Maverick to overcome Robertson in 15 minutes of battle. Maverick is a strong wrestler and has the edge in technical striking.

The best value is with each fighter’s moneyline. A few online betting sites have Maverick as low as -135.

Gabriel Green vs Phil Rowe

• Gabriel Green (-135)
• Phil Rowe (+115)
• Over (+100)/Under (-120) 2.5 rounds

Rowe has won seven straight fights since starting out his career at 0-2. The run includes a 3^rd round TKO win on DWCS in August 2019. All seven of his pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 0-1 when going the distance.

Green made his UFC debut nine months ago and lost via unanimous decision to Daniel Rodriguez. The loss snapped a six fight winning streak. He’s also 1-1 in Bellator in his career. All nine of his pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of submission. He’s 0-1 when going the distance.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in two of their 21 pro fights. So, take this bout to end inside the distance (-165) and for it to go Under 2.5 rounds (-120).

As for the winner, I like Green in this matchup. He’s the heavy hitter and I just don’t see Rowe having the power to stop him.

In fact, I don’t see Rowe surviving a slugfest for 15 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if Green puts him away in the 1^st round due to his KO power.

The best value is with Green’s moneyline at -135 odds. You can get it as low as -125 if you shop around.

Ricky Simon vs Brian Kelleher

• Ricky Simon (-250)
• Brian Kelleher (+210)
• Over (-250)/Under (+175) 2.5 rounds

This is probably the one preliminary card fight that I’m the most excited to see. It will be a contender for one of the bonuses of the night.

Brian “Boom” Kelleher missed all of 2019 and returned with a vengeance in 2020 going 3-1. His lone loss was to Cody Stamann via decision.

He last fought in September and won via 1^st round submission over Ray Rodriguez. It was another victory via his go-to submission hold – the guillotine choke.

18 of his 22 pro wins have come via stoppage with 10 by way of submission. He’s 4-4 when going the distance.

This will be fight of the night at #UFC258. pic.twitter.com/oB0HYIXSlz

— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) February 8, 2021

Ricky Simon is on a two fight win streak that saw him compete just a few weeks ago where he beat Gaetano Pirrello via 2^nd round submission on Fight Island.

That win followed after his split decision victory over Ray Borg last May, which was a thrilling fight. Eight of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 9-1 when going the distance.

This fight will come down to Simon’s scrambling skills, pressure, speed, smooth striking and takedown attempts versus Kelleher’s toughness, power and guillotine choke.

I like this fight to go the full distance (-225) and Over 2.5 rounds (-250) as these two men will go to war for the full 15 minutes.

As for the winner, I like Simon in this one. I believe his pressure and takedown attempts will keep Kelleher from being able to fire off his power shots. Simon will also be able to out-scramble his opponent if Boom is able to get a takedown attempt of his own.

The value for this fight is with Simon winning via decision at -130 odds. 10 of his 20 pro fights and nine of his 17 pro wins have come via decision.

Mallory Martin vs Polyana Viana

• Mallory Martin (-155)
• Polyana Viana (+135)
• Over (-235)/Under (+195) 2.5 rounds

Viana had a rough start to her UFC career going 1-3 with a three fight losing streak. However, she snapped that streak by trying to snap Emily Whitmire’s arm last August when she won via 1^st round submission in under two minutes.

All 11 of her pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of submission. She’s 0-3 when going the distance.

Martin rode a five fight win streak into her octagon debut in December 2019 where she lost via submission to Virna Jandiroba. She bounced back last August winning via 2^nd round submission over Hannah Cifers.

Four of her seven pro wins have come via stoppage with two victories apiece by submission and TKO/KO. She’s 3-2 when going the distance.

I like Viana in this contest. I believe she’s the better striker between the two and has more in her grappling arsenal than Martin. I have been burned by Polyana in the past, but I am choosing to believe that she’s turned the corner with that Whitmire win.

I’m taking Viana to win via submission before the 15 minutes are up. The value is with Viana’s moneyline at +135 odds as she’s the underdog for this bout.

Belal Muhammad vs Dhiego Lima

• Belal Muhammad (-400)
• Dhiego Lima (+320)
• Over (-250)/Under (+190) 2.5 rounds

According to UFC betting sites, the 13^th ranked welterweight Belal Muhammad is the biggest betting favorite for the entire UFC 258 event, which makes Dhiego Lima the biggest underdog.

Lima enters this contest on a three fight win streak, but hasn’t fought since October 2019 when he defeated Luke Jumeau via split decision. He’s 4-5 all-time inside the octagon.

Eight of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with four apiece via TKO/KO and submission. He’s 7-2 when going the distance. Lima will have a three inch height and reach advantage in this bout.

Muhammad is 8-3 in the UFC and has won three straight bouts. He last competed in June 2020 where he beat Lyman Good via unanimous decision. His 7-1 record over the last four years has bumped him up into the Top 15 in the division.

Five of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 12-2 when going the distance and has only been stopped one time in his career.

Other than the height and reach advantages, I don’t see anything in Lima’s favor for this matchup. Instead, Muhammad has the edge in striking and grappling, which means he can control this fight wherever it ends up.

14 of Muhammad’s 20 pro bouts have gone the distance. I’m taking him to win via decision (-145), for the fight to go the full 15 minutes (-215), and Over 2.5 rounds (-250). The value is with Muhammad winning via decision.

Anthony Hernandez vs Rodolfo Vieira

• Anthony Hernandez (+320)
• Rodolfo Vieira (-390)
• Over (+120)/Under (-150) 1.5 rounds

Rodolfo Vieira is the second biggest betting favorite for the entire UFC 258 event. Nicknamed “The Black Belt Hunter,” Vieira is one of the most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in any combat sport.

He’s won all seven of his fights via stoppage with six by submission. Vieira is also 2-0 inside the octagon.

Hernandez has gone 1-2 inside the octagon and last fought in May 2020 where he lost to Kevin Holland via 1^st round TKO in under 40 seconds. His other UFC loss was via 2^nd round submission to Markus Perez.

Six of his seven pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 1-0 when going the distance.

Rodolfo Vieira fight week!!!

This is guy is a monster.#UFC258 pic.twitter.com/GdfceQGk92

— Alex Behunin (@AlexBehunin) February 8, 2021

Hernandez’s only hope in this fight is to run around for 15 minutes and not get dragged to the mat. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen. Vieira will get “Fluffy” to the mat where he will force him to tap out.

Take the Under 1.5 rounds (-150) as I see this being a 1^st round victory for Vieira who will find some limb to lock on to (-185). There really isn’t any value for this contest.

The only wager that has any appeal is for the fight to start Round 2 at -105 odds. But, that’s more of a risk than a value play.

Andre Ewell vs Chris Gutierrez

• Andre Ewell (+125)
• Chris Gutierrez (-155)
• Over (-225)/Under (+185) 2.5 rounds

Since this fight was added very recently, there aren’t any prop bets available. Ewell was supposed to fight at UFC Fight Night 184, but was removed due to a positive covid test. However, he has tested negative twice since then and is allowed to compete this weekend.

Andre Ewell is the slight underdog with a 4-2 UFC record. He’s won two straight fights both via split decision. He last competed in September and beat Irwin Rivera.

11 of his 17 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 6-2 when going the distance.

Gutierrez is 3-1-1 inside the octagon having gone 3-0-1 in his last four fights following a 2^nd round submission loss to Raoni Barcelos in his UFC debut. He last competed in August where he fought to a Draw against Cody Durden.

Eight of his 15 pro wins have come via stoppage with seven by way of TKO/KO. He’s 7-3-2 when going the distance.

I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and the full distance at -185 from sports betting sites. 12 of Gutierrez’s 21 pro fights have gone the distance including three of his last four. The same for Ewell as well including two in a row.

Ewell will have the height and reach advantages in this contest, but I like Gutierrez in this matchup. I believe his tenacity will overcome the reach of Ewell and he will eventually take control of this fight from his preferred distance or from the mat. Take Gutierrez to win via decision.

Jim Miller vs Bobby Green

• Jim Miller (+220)
• Bobby Green (-260)
• Over (-250)/Under (+210) 2.5 rounds

Miller has seen a resurgence of sorts after suffering a four fight losing streak in 2017-2018 that had many fans and pundits calling for his retirement. Since then, he’s gone 4-3. However, he did lose to Vinc Pichel last August via unanimous decision.

22 of his 32 pro wins have come via stoppage with 18 by way of submission. He’s 10-10 when going the distance.

Green had a three fight win streak snapped last October when he lost to Thiago Moises via decision. It appeared that Green turned the corner with an improved striking and cardio. However, he wasn’t able to overcome Moises four months ago.

17 of his 27 pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of submission. He’s 10-7-1 when going the distance.

I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-250) and the full 15 minutes (-205). Combined, these men have 38 bouts go the distance.

For Green, he’s gone the distance in nine straight contests. You can make it 10 in a row because I see him winning via decision (-130), which has the best value.

Green is the better striker between the two, has the better gas tank, and is a strong enough grappler to prevent ending up in a Miller submission hold.