Kings vs. Avalanche NHL Pick – March 12, 2021

It was a fantastic night with last night’s pair of NHL picks as a 2-0 night sends us to 4-0 over our last four picks!

As expected, the Hurricanes trounced an undermanned Predators blueline. Carolina came out fast and furious with a trio of first-period tallies that would stand as more than enough in an eventual 5-1 win.

We also hit a plus-money underdog with the Washington Capitals. The Caps never trailed in that one as they opened the scoring and even led 4-1 at one point before the Flyers instilled some late fear with a pair of third-period goals that closed the gap to 4-3, but a Washington empty-netter with less than 30 seconds left sealed a 5-3 Capitals victory at healthy +107 odds.

We’ll take the 2-0 night and 2.07-unit profit and move onto tonight’s Kings vs. Avalanche NHL pick and see if we can keep rolling!

Kings vs. Avalanche Betting Odds

Moneyline	Spread	Total
Kings (+205)	+1.5 (-130)	Over 5.5 (-110)
Avalanche (-230)	-1.5 (+110)	Under 5.5 (+100)

Kings vs. Avalanche NHL Pick Breakdown

Kings

The Kings bounced back from a 6-5 OT loss in Anaheim on Monday with a complete effort as part of a 5-1 win on Wednesday despite third-string netminder Troy Grosenick being surprisingly thrust into his first NHL action since 2014, picking up his first win in six years in the process.

After dropping four in a row, that’s two wins in three games for a Kings team that is actually just two points back of these Avs for the fourth and final postseason spot in the West Division.

From an offensive perspective, the Kings have actually surpassed expectations, led by all-world pivot Anze Kopitar who has tallied 31 points in 25 games, but also 19 power play points that sits second in the NHL only to Connor McDavid’s 20.

Overall, the Kings rank 14th with 3.08 goals per game on the season, and their power play has certainly been a major help as their healthy 27.5% clip on the man advantage puts them sixth league wide.

That said, the underlying metrics are quite poor, at least from a scoring chance perspective as the Kings rank 29th in scoring chances for/60 and 25th in terms of high-danger chances for at 5v5, according to Natural Stat Trick. That said, their 2.19 goals/60 at 5v5 this season isn’t astronomically above their 2.00 expected mark, and if that fine-looking man advantage can come close to maintaining their current pace, the Kings could indeed remain a top-half offense moving forward.

It’s quite the similar story at the other end of the ice as the Kings’ surface numbers and special teams figure are above average, but the metrics are poor.

Overall, the Kings sit 12th with 2.84 goals against per game this season and eighth with an 83.1% clip on the penalty kill.

At 5v5, however, they rank 21st in scoring chances against/60 and 23rd in terms of high-danger chances against60. Again, their 2.30 goals against/60 is right in line with their 2.26 expected mark, so as long as that penalty kill continues to produce, I’m not sure a dramatic drop in their overall defensive numbers is in the cards here.

There’s no word on the Kings’ goaltending situation tonight, and it will probably be a late announcement on who will get the nod.

Cal Petersen continues to be on the NHL’s protocol list, but we don’t know for how long. Additionally, Jonathan Quick remains listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury, and his status is also unclear at the time of this writing.

If I were to guess, I’d bet on Grosenick getting his second consecutive start as it would be rather surprising to see Petersen on and off the protocol list after just 48 hours, although I suppose Quick could return to the crease, but there’s absolutely no way to know at this juncture.

Avalanche

It’s probably fair to state that the Avalanche have been a disappointment so far this season.

Most sportsbooks pegged the Avs as the Stanley Cup favorite entering the season, but all the sudden a Kings victory tonight would have the clubs tied with 30 points, although Colorado would have a slight edge in points percentage due to holding one game in hand.

Nonetheless, this is a monumental game for both sides, and the Avs’ offense will look to get back on the right track after scoring just four goals over their last two games.

In fairness, they peppered Arizona netminder Anttii Raanta with 46 shots in a 2-1 OT win on Wednesday, but ran into a hot netminder.

For the season, Colorado ranks 16th with 3.00 goals per game on the season while their power play comes in ranked 13th with a 22.3% clip.

At 5v5, the Avs rank third in scoring chances for/60, 15th in high-danger chances for/60 and sixth in expected goals for/60. Their 2.28 goals/60 on the season is in line with their 2.34 expected mark, so it would appear the Avs are scoring about as much as they deserve at 5v5 this season.

Still, you would think a breakthrough is on the horizon, They’ve scored four goals despite putting a whopping 81 shots on goal over their two-game set with the Coyotes, and the resulting 4.9% is just not going to last much longer, especially with the elite-level talent up front for this club.

Defensively, the Avs have been one of the better teams in the league and the peripheral numbers are there to back it up.

On the surface, the Avs rank fifth in both overall defense with 2.46 goals against per game and penalty killing with a mark of 85.9%. Underneath the surface, they rank second in scoring chances against/60, eighth in high-danger chances against/60 and third in expected goals against/60.

This defense has allowed just four goals over their last two games, but they haven’t been without their slip-ups either, allowing five goals to an anemic Ducks offense three games back and six to the lowly Sharks on the first day of the month. They’ve actually allowed six goals twice over their last nine games.

That leaves Ryan Graves, Samuel Girard and Devon Toews as the lone healthy, top-six regulars at the moment, something that doesn’t bode well against a Kings offense that’s scored 10 times over their last two games.

Like with the Kings, we don’t have word on an Avs starting goaltender tonight, but it would be surprising not to see starter Philipp Grubauer getting the nod for a key clash, especially with Pavel Francouz still out of the lineup and third-stringer Hunter Miska acting as the current backup.

Following a red-hot start to his season, Grubauer cooled some in February and is enduring a volatile month of March to this point. In five March outings, he’s posted a 2.17 GAA, but also with an .898 Sv%. The Avs don’t allow many shots and actually held Arizona to just 14 in each of the last two games, which helps the GAA, but the more important stat when evaluating goaltenders is indeed the save percentage.

We’ll see if the German can put forth his second consecutive quality outing in this one tonight.

Kings vs. Avalanche NHL Pick

There sure seems to be some value here in the Kings given the numbers above and the fact that just two points separates the two teams this season. However, it’s awfully tough to bet on a third-string goaltender in Grosenick against this offense.

Rather, I’m going to look for a high-scoring affair here, or at least one that gets us over the attractive 5.5 total.

To his credit, Grosenick played very well in turning aside 33 of 34 shots in Anaheim on Wednesday, however that’s a 29th-ranked Ducks offense and 28th-ranked Ducks power play with firepower few and far between.

This Avalanche offense is a whole new animal and it’s a group set to explode after being stymied by Antti Raanta their last time out.

On the flip side, this Kings offense is white-hot with five goals in each of their last two games, and while that came against a weak Ducks defense and a struggling John Gibson, this Avalanche is as vulnerable as its been all season while that fifth-ranked penalty kill has actually gone just 3 for 6 over their last three games. The injuries aren’t helping the PK at all.

Add in an up-and-down Grubauer at the moment and I think the Kings generate some offense in this one as well.

I like the 5.5 total and I like the odds, so let’s head for the Over tonight from Denver.