Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs Pick for March 31st

It might have been hard to believe a couple weeks ago, but we could be looking at a possible NBA play-in playoff preview when the Sacramento Kings visit the San Antonio Spurs tonight at the AT&T Center in Texas. The two teams met in the same location on Monday night, with the Kings ladling out a 132-115 stomping of the Spurs. That’s par for the course for the Kings of late, as they’ve enjoyed a recent hot streak.

Sacramento seemed like they were headed for another season of disappointment as recently as a couple weeks ago, when they sat at an ugly 15-24. But things have changed drastically since then as well as odds at online basketball betting sites, with the team winning seven of eight, including their last five in a row. All of a sudden, they’re just a game out of tenth place in the West, which is where they need to be if they want to get into the play-in portion of the postseason.

Moneyline Betting Odds: Kings vs Spurs

• San Antonio Spurs (-135)
• Sacramento Kings (+115)

Spread Betting Odds: Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

• San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-108)
• Sacramento Kings +2.5 (-112)

Over/Under Betting Odds: Sacramento vs San Antonio

• Over 230.5 (-110)
• Under 230.5 (-110)

For the most part, San Antonio has been a pleasant surprise in 2020-21, with an above-.500 record ahead of schedule considering their youthful lineup. But they could be hitting the wall, as their loss to the Kings on Monday was their fifth in their last six. As a result, they’ve dropped to eighth in the West, just a half-game below the Mavericks.

Injury Report

Oddly enough, an injury has been the catalyst for the Kings’ resurgence. Marvin Bagley III, former lottery pick and the Kings starting forward, fractured his hand a few weeks back. That’s when Coach Luke Walton decided to go small and insert rookie guard Tyrese Haliburton into the lineup to join Buddy Hield and De’Aaron Fox in a three guard-lineup.

The results:

That tweet actually preceded the Kings two most recent victories, as they’ve now gone 7-1 since the switch. The Kings also might get back Hassan Whiteside in this one; he’s questionable. His shot-blocking can be helpful, especially with Sacramento being a little on the small side without him.

San Antonio should get back Lonnie Walker IV for the game tonight, as he’s listed as probable. Their bench unit lacked a little pop without him in the loss on Monday night, especially considering he had been playing well. Look for Walker to get solid minutes in this one.

The Backcourt of The Future

It’s probably inaccurate to say that Haliburton is now just getting his chance, as he’s been finishing games all year long for the Kings since being the steal of the draft. But there is no doubt that he has stepped into his starting role beautifully. He hurt the Spurs in the win on Monday night with his first ever double-double (15 points, 10 assists), as he continues to make his case for Rookie of the Year with LaMelo Ball sidelined:

• Haliburton Win Shares: 2.8 (3^rd among rookies)
• Haliburton Value Over Replacement Player: 1.2 (2^nd among rookies)

For all of Haliburton’s excellence, however, the true story of the Kings hot streak as been De’Aaron Fox. He just picked up Western Conference Player of the Week honors, and a Player of the Month award could be next up. Look at his March stats:

• 30 PPG, 6.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 53.1% FG

Stats on the Kings tend to be elevated because they play really fast, but these were not just empty numbers. Sacramento went 9-4 in that stretch, meaning that Fox was lighting it up with a purpose. He chipped in 24 points and 5 assists in the win on Monday night against the Spurs.

Fox still struggles with his shooting accuracy, both from three and from the three-point line. But this recent stretch has strengthened the belief that he can be a foundational piece for this team. With Haliburton and Hield delivering from the perimeter, this team is tough to handle, as the Spurs found out on Monday night when they gave up 132 points and 18 three-pointers.

DeRozan’s Consistent Excellence

The Spurs have embraced a kind of positionless approach that is common in the NBA these days. Other than Jakob Poeltl at center, the other four starters take turns handling the ball and running the offense. Veteran DeMar DeRozan has taken to this scheme brilliantly.

Now in his twelfth NBA season, DeRozan has always flown under the radar. That’s the case more than ever, due to the fact that he doesn’t shoot many threes at a time when the rest of the league fires them up at will. But he is quietly putting up some of his best numbers.

His shooting efficiency is as high as it’s ever been. But where he has really stood out has been with his passing, as he is currently sitting at 7.2 assists per game, which is a career-high and puts him in the Top 20 in the league. And check out the leaders in assists-to-turnovers in the league:

1. Kira Lewis
2. Monte Morris
3. Tyus Jones
4. Ish Smith
5. Jordan McLaughlin
6. DeMar DeRozan

The five guys in front of him are all specialists, backup point guards whose job is largely to distribute. They also don’t play anywhere near the minutes that DeRozan does, which means his total is even more impressive. It’s an indicator of how effective he has been this season, and the Kings will have a hard time stopping that efficiency.

Beefing Up the Bench

Despite being a high-scoring team and having Haliburton coming off the bench for much of the year, Sacramento has received precious little from its reserves in the way of production this season. They come into the game against San Antonio at 30.3 bench points per game, dead last in the NBA in that category.

But the changes the team made during the deadline have them hopeful that will soon change. And the results were promising on Monday night in the win. Terence Davis, Mo Harkless and Delon Wright, all played solid minutes off the bench. Davis and Harkless were particularly strong, scoring 14 and 13 respectively.

While it remains to be seen if they can sustain that level, as all three have been inconsistent this year, it’s a good sign. Sacramento’s starters will still play heavy minutes. But an extra boost from the bench against the Spurs will really help.

What’s the Best Bet?

You might think that Gregg Popovich would have the edge in a second game of a two-game set against the same team. But San Antonio has won just one of six such games this year. On top of that, the Kings have been solid as an underdog bet, going 11-7 in those situations.

Right now, Sacramento just has a lot more firepower. And the Spurs don’t really have that kind of offensive pop to really take advantage of the Kings poor defense. Look for the Kings to cover and, most likely, to win the game outright.