4 Live Betting Strategies for the NFL Draft

Since the only way to predict the NFL Draft is to expect the unexpected, live betting is a good way for you to go if it’s your first time betting on where players will land.

Live betting requires less upfront research because as the draft goes on, strategies change. Teams who wanted a player with the 10th pick that went 2 spots ahead to the team with the 8th pick will be required to do some reshuffling.

The same goes if a trade occurs. You might have thought a prospect would hear their name called at 20, only for another team to leapfrog and land the player with the 15th pick.

This is where live betting can be lucrative and this article gives you 4 strategies to use on draft day.

1 – Pay Attention to Trades

Trades occur in every draft. How often? Here’s a history lesson.

We only saw four first-round trades in 2020, but there has been more activity in previous years. In the 1st round of the 2019 draft, 12 trades occurred. In 2018, that number was 16. 2017 also saw 12 trades.

You know who’s picking with each pick. You know exactly where the teams you’ve researched will land. You know that a team leapfrogging another is likely to take the higher-ranked prospect.

You also have an insight into each team’s war room when they make a trade. If they trade down, you know there’s a player they like that most teams and experts didn’t rank as high, but they did.

You also know the team trading up likes a prospect they otherwise wouldn’t get if they stayed in their current position.

Never let a good trade go to waste if a team you researched does so.

As an example, the San Francisco 49ers are widely expected to select a quarterback in the first round. The Niners traded a bounty of picks to the Dolphins in order to move up to the No. 3 spot, where they reportedly have their eye on Alabama QB Mac Jones.

The Dolphins, who don’t have a need for a QB after taking Tua Tagovailoa last year, will go in another direction at No. 6. Because there is almost always a run on quarterbacks early in drafts, the Dolphins were able to use that to their advantage and leverage their way into a deal with the 49ers.

If you knew anything about the respective situations of both teams before the trade was made, you likely could’ve seen that one coming. The Niners are in need of a long-term replacement for Jimmy Garoppolo, which is why San Francisco is now widely expected to take a QB at No. 3.

2 – Bet Only Teams You Researched

Live betting will increase the temptation to bet on teams you haven’t researched. I’m not telling you not to, but I’m forewarning you it’s risky.

If every mock draft you’ve seen has Trevor Lawrence going to Jacksonville and the Jaguars instead turn around and take Justin Fields because you didn’t research that the team likes potential rather than a safe pick, you lost money that you could’ve wagered on a safer route.

I’m not saying the Jaguars are taking Fields or drafting for potential this season.

Just an example. The point? If you don’t research a team, this is the reason you don’t bet on them.

Another trap is this scenario: A top-5 projected player tumbles out of the top-10. Now the best player has been on Mel Kiper’s Best Available for the last 5 picks. Huge trap, best avoided.

What if the next 5 teams are drafting for need rather than best available? And they’re 5 teams you didn’t do your homework on. Live bettors love freefalls like this because unless some last-second news came out about the player, they will hear their name called.

But don’t play the guessing game because often, teams have already settled on another player and are unlikely to change their minds.

A good example is Laremy Tunsil. Experts projected Tunsil to be the top pick in 2016 before the Tennessee Titans traded their 1st pick to the then-quarterback-needy Los Angeles Rams.

After the Eagles traded with the Browns for the 2nd pick, a team who was also quarterback-needy, Tunsil was still a projected top-5 pick.

10 minutes prior to the draft, Tunsil’s Twitter account displayed a video of him smoking an unknown substance into a gas mask.

Tunsil free-fell to Miami, who selected him with the 13th pick. After tackles Ronnie Stanley (number 6 to Baltimore) and Jack Conklin (number 8 to Tennessee) went off the board.

The top-ranked tackle that season free-fell and no one, not even the most educated draft analyst, could’ve told you when a team would select Tunsil.

When this happens, it’s also possible a prospect falls out of the 1st round. Some have even gone undrafted, so nothing is certain.

3 – Throw Away the Mock Drafts

Get rid of the mocks and forget they exist. Keep the draft magazines you bought, though, as they’re beneficial.

Just throw away the mocks. And no, don’t look at any mock draft online or on TV. Don’t even look at Mel Kiper’s and Todd McShay’s updated mocks.

This all goes back to why it’s so important to pay attention to trades during the draft. Once the first trade occurs, it’s time to expect the unexpected.

It’s why you always stick to teams that you researched. Even in live betting, I wouldn’t research over 5 teams. Your favorite team is a green light to research and bet on since you know their roster.

Their top rivals are also good teams to bet on too. Since I follow the Browns, they’re one of my targeted teams to bet on. The same goes for their rivals, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Instead of trying to emulate the mocks, follow selected teams.

The following shows how much homework goes into the pre-draft research process for serious gamblers. Let’s use the Cleveland Browns as the example.

For 2021, I know if Kentucky linebacker Jamin Davis Parsons fell into their laps at No. 26, they’re likely to take him unless a stud like Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons is also available.

At that point, I might refrain from even making a bet. And this is where the mocks come into play. Most mock drafts I’ve seen have the Browns taking Davis. But most of these drafts have Parsons coming off the board earlier.

Or, if Parsons is still on the board and Davis goes earlier, it’s more likely the Browns snag Parsons, who is the answer to stopping Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson, who the Browns have to face twice a year.

In the scenario where Davis goes but Parsons is there, I’m betting they take Parsons at 26 since they have a weak linebacking group and they have to face Jackson’s Ravens.

At the same time I’m also looking toward the end of the 1st round, knowing the team will work the phones and try to trade up to get 2 picks in the 1st round.

Hardly a single mock draft out there will prepare for this scenario. There are also different mocks. Many project trades since so many occur on draft day. Some still don’t, and they predict pick for pick.

This is the major problem with mock drafts with live betting. They’re beyond pointless. They might be fun to follow early in the draft process to give you a starting point, but beyond that, don’t follow the mocks.

The scenario I listed above is one of many that can occur on draft day and multiple scenarios are something every live better needs to be aware of.

4 – Submit the Bet Before the Pick is In

This is the most important point, even if it appears simple and redundant on the surface. Once the pick is in, Twitter and Facebook will fall into a frenzy, meaning bookmakers aren’t accepting your bet.

Bet when the team who’s selecting is still on the clock and if you’re stuck between 1 player or the other, refrain from betting and save your money for a more surefire bet.

Note that I listed this in the above section if both Davis and Parsons are still on the board when the Browns pick at number 26, assuming they don’t trade the pick away.

Most will bet on Davis and I’m 80% sure Davis will be the pick in this situation unless word comes out that the Browns like someone else and want to trade up to snag him later in the 1st.

But I also know Parsons is a game changer who will neutralize the team’s biggest roadblock in the division, the Baltimore Ravens. Also, it’s likely Andrew Berry could throw a smokescreen and may’ve wanted Parsons the whole time, taking him then working the phones to trade up.

There are 2 options for each pick on your targeted teams: bet or pass. Unless you’re sure of the pick, and even here there’s no guarantee, pass. If you strongly believe your team will pick someone still on the board when their pick rolls around, place your bet the second they’re on the clock.

Because there are times, more often earlier in the draft where a team is on the clock for 2 or 3 of their allotted 10 minutes in the 1st round.

The best strategy to go with is to wait until your team picks. If there’s a player you think they will snag with that pick, bet. If you’re flip-flopping between 2 or 3 players and your team’s decision makers are throwing constant smokescreens, pass.

Conclusion

Live betting is a great way to go for newer bettors because it allows you to focus on the current selection without having to worry about changing odds if you selected pre-draft. Instead, the odds for a specific player or position change live so it increases your odds of getting the pick right.

Always pay close attention to the trades, as they will change the draft. A team whose odds may’ve favored defense are now favoring offense, and vice versa, from 1 simple trade.

Don’t get tempted to bet on teams you didn’t research even if you think you know who’s going where and don’t pay attention to any past or updated mock draft. Another trade will throw these predictions off.

Finally, submit your bet when your team is on the clock and don’t get caught flip-flopping between 2 players. It’s always okay to pass and wager later picks if you need to.

What do you think? Let me know in the comments.