The Best Prop Bets for the GEICO 500 From Talladega

On Sunday, April 25^th, NASCAR heads to the Talladega Superspeedway for the GEICO 500. This race promises to be filled with high speeds, daring passes and big crashes.

NASCAR betting sites have released a field of prop bets for this weekend’s Talladega race. Let’s take a look at some of the popular GEICO 500 prop bets and make some checkered flag winning predictions.

The following prop bets are courtesy of Bovada.

GEICO 500 Driver Matchups

In order to win these prop bets, you must pick which driver that you think will finish higher at Talladega this weekend:

Aric Almirola vs Martin Truex Jr.

Martin Truex Jr. is one of the best drivers in the sport of NASCAR. Unfortunately, he is terrible at Talladega.

In 32 starts at this track, Truex has just two Top 5s and eight Top 10s. In fact, he has 13 DNFs which are the most among active drivers and a 21.5 average finish which is the third worst among the Top 10 drivers in the standings.

Truex has finished 20^th or worse in nine straight Talladega races.

Conversely, Aric Almirola has done well at this track in his career. In 22 starts, he has one win, five Top 5s, nine Top 10s, 15.8 average finish and three DNFs. All of those numbers are better than Truex and he’s done it in 10 less races.

Furthermore, Almirola had a stretch of eight straight races where he finished in the Top 10 at Talladega. That streak was snapped last fall when he was caught up in a wreck. Almirola was 3^rd in this race last year, 9^th in 2019, 7^th in 2018 and 4^th in 2017.

Almirola should be a Top 10 car with a Top 5 ceiling. Truex will most likely be a Top 25 car.

Bubba Wallace vs Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

I’m really surprised that these two drivers have the same betting odds considering the disparity in success between the two.

Bubba Wallace has never finished higher than 14^th at Talladega in six career starts. He also has a 22.7 average finish and two DNFs.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has one win, six Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and a 12.7 average finish in 15 career starts at this track.

He also has four Top 9 results in the last six races and two in the last three. Stenhouse was runner up last year when Wallace had his best result at 14^th. Ricky also won this race in 2017.

This is a no-brainer! Take Stenhouse Jr. to beat Wallace on Sunday.

Best Finish in Group

• Aric Almirola (+210)
• Christopher Bell (+260)
• Matt DiBenedetto (+275)
• Austin Dillon (+275)

We already laid out Aric Almirola’s success at Talladega in the head to head wager above. Now, we’re looking to see if any of these other drivers can beat him on Sunday.

Right off the bat, we can eliminate Matt DiBenedetto from this equation. In 12 starts at this track, he’s never even cracked the Top 10. His best result was 18^th overall. DiBenedetto has a 27.2 average finish with 4 DNFs.

We can also eliminate Christopher Bell as he has a 34.0 average finish in two starts at Talladega including a DNF last fall.

Austin Dillon has one Top 5 and three Top 10s in 15 starts at this track. Furthermore, he has a 20.2 average finish with six DNFs.

This really isn’t even going to be close. Almirola has potential to crack the Top 5 where the other three drivers will be lucky to crack the Top 20.

GEICO 500 Car Prop Bets

Car Number of Race Winner

• Even (-140)
• Odd (+105)

Although I am picking Denny Hamlin to win the race, the smart play for this prop bet is to go with Even.

With that wager, you get Keselowski (2), Harvick (4), Almirola (10), Blaney (12), Busch (18) and Logano (22). All of those drivers have won at Talladega before.

Car Number of Race Winner

• Over 11.5 (-135)
• Under 11.5 (+105)

This wager is a bit tougher than the previous one. With that said, I am leaning towards the Under 11.5. Not only does it offer better value, I like the drivers we get with that option like: Keselowski (2), Harvick (4), Newman (6), Elliott (9), Almirola (10), and Hamlin (11).

Although Logano (22) and Blaney (12) are credible options to win on Sunday, I am taking the Under 11.5 for this prop bet.

Manufacturer of Race Winner

• Ford (+145)
• Chevrolet (+155)
• Toyota (+250)

Toyota is the longshot this weekend even with Denny Hamlin as the betting favorite and my choice to win the race. Other Toyota drivers like Bell and Truex just haven’t fared well at this track. Plus, Toyota hasn’t won at Talladega in the spring since Hamlin did it in 2014.

Chevy won this race in 2019 with Chase Elliott and has 13 GEICO 500 victories since 2000. Chevy also has the most all-time wins with 20. With that said, there aren’t as many Chevys that I would take this Sunday compared to Ford.

Ford is the favorite, and rightfully so. They’ve won four of the last five GEICO 500 races. Furthermore, the Top 5 Ford drivers for this Sunday have combined to win 12 times at Talladega.

Let’s hedge our bets at NASCAR betting sites by taking Ford.

Team of Race Winner

• Joe Gibbs Racing (+325)
• Team Penske (+325)
• Hendrick Motor Sports (+450)
• Any Other Team (+450)
• Stewart-Haas Racing (+800)
• Chip Ganassi Racing (+1400)
• JTG Daughtery Racing (+1400)
• Richard Childress racing (+1400)
• Roush Fenway Racing (+1800)

Joe Gibbs Racing is the favorite for this wager, but I would skip them for this bet even though I picked Hamlin to win. I think this prop bet is a great opportunity to hedge our bets by taking another race team. Furthermore, JGR drivers have just three wins in a combined 95 Talladega races.

Hendrick Motorsports is in a similar boat as JGR. Hendrick drivers have just one win in 39 combined Talladega races.

Stewart-Haas Racing offers the best value at +800 odds. Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola are solid drivers at Talladega and have both won at this track. But, there’s one team that’s above the rest and that’s Team Penske.

Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski have combined to win 10 times in 61 Talladega races. Furthermore, they’ve combined to win the GEICO 500 five times with Ryan Blaney being the defending race winner.

It really is a surprise that Team Penske isn’t the clear-cut odds on favorite for this race.