The Best Value Bets for UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal

On Saturday, April 24th, all eyes will be on arguably the biggest MMA PPV event of the year – UFC 261: Usman vs Masvidal.

This event is stacked with top notch fights including three world title bouts. Additionally, this card is stacked with numerous value bets that could make you some money.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest UFC 261 betting odds and identify the best value bets for this exciting PPV event.

Carnelossi to Win Inside the Distance (-105)

Ariane Carnelossi will make her second trip into the octagon this weekend as she enters as a large betting favorite with odds ranging from -210 to -225. She faces UFC newcomer Na Liang who’s listed with odds ranging of +165 to +190.

In addition to Carnelossi being a large favorite, the Under 2.5 rounds (-185) and the prop bet for the fight to end inside the distance (-250) are also heavy favorites.

Combined, these two women have gone the distance in just four of their 31 professional fights. With very few bouts going the distance, and the odds heavily favoring a stoppage, it’s clear that this bout should end in under 15 minutes.

Since Carnelossi is the large favorite, and the fight expected to end with a finish, the value is with Ariane to win via stoppage.

Rhong to Win Inside the Distance (-110)

Zhu Rong will make his UFC debut this Saturday and is a highly touted prospect. He’s also a large betting favorite with odds ranging from -250 to -280.

Rong will take on Rodrigo Vargas who’s listed with odds ranging from +195 to +220. Vargas has lost two contests in a row and is giving up a few inches in height and reach.

Furthermore, Rhong is the superior striker with 11 of his 16 pro wins coming via TKO/KO.

The O/U is set at 2.5 rounds with the Under listed as the favorite at -160. The prop bet for the fight to end inside the distance is listed at -205.

With the odds favoring a stoppage, Rhong being the large favorite and having a big advantage in striking, taking Rhong to win inside the distance is a great play for this contest.

Allen to Beat Roberson Inside the Distance (+140)

Unlike the previous two bouts, this one doesn’t have moneylines with a huge disparity. Instead, Allen is the favorite with odds from -150 to -170 and Roberson is listed as the underdog with odds ranging from +120 to +140.

The Over/Under can be found listed at 2.5 with the Under the favorite at -160. The fight ending inside the distance has large odds of -225. So, we’re looking at a fight that should end in under 15 minutes.

As for the winner, I like Allen. He’s the better striker and the better overall combatant. I believe he will score the stoppage victory due to his striking and superior grappling abilities. Once he gets Roberson to the mat, this fight is over with.

Allen winning inside the distance is listed at +140 odds which is a great return on investment.

Crute Beats Smith Inside the Distance (+130)

Jimmy Crute is a large betting favorite against the veteran Anthony Smith. Crute is listed with odds ranging from -195 to -225 while Smith can be found with odds listed from +160 to +180.

This will be the biggest fight of Crute’s career to date and I think he’s up for the challenge. A win will cement him as a Top 10 light heavyweight and put him one step closer to a title shot.

The O/U is set at 2.5 rounds with the Under the favorite at -120. The prop bet for the fight to end inside the distance is listed at -145.

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in only eight of their 63 pro fights. So, when you add that to the Under and the fight to end inside the distance, it’s clear what direction we should head in.

Plus, when you factor in where each fighter is in their respective careers, Crute is on the up while Smith is now a gatekeeper. Crute’s grappling will help him land the stoppage victory.

Shevchenko vs Andrade Over 3.5 Rounds (-135)

In the first of three world title fights, his will be a battle of top flyweights and two really tough competitors.

I really like this one to go Over 3.5 rounds (-135) as I don’t see this fight ending before the championship rounds.

Andrade has gone the distance in five of her last nine fights. Shevchenko has gone the distance in three of her last five bouts including her last fight against Jennifer Maia in November.

I believe Andrade’s durability and grappling could keep her in this contest and push it the full five rounds. And, Shevchenko doesn’t lose to anyone not named Amanda Nunes.

With two world class athletes battling for glory and gold, I fully expect an epic battle that goes the distance and well Over 3.5 rounds.

Zhang vs Namajunas Goes the Distance (-130)

The second of three world title fights happens to be the one that I’m the most excited to see as Weili Zhang puts her strawweight title on the line against former champ Rose Namajunas.

These are two elite fighters who will definitely push each other to the limits. I also believe they will push this fight to the time limit.

Zhang has never been stopped in her pro career and I don’t see Namajunas being able to do that this Saturday.

Weili has gone the distance in two of her last three fights. Namajunas has also gone the distance in two of her last three fights.

The Over 4.5 rounds is favored at -135 and the prop bet for this fight to go the distance is also the favorite at -130 odds, which I believe offers solid betting value. The fight starting round 5 is also favored at -150.

With two great fighters going fist to fist, and the oddsmakers favoring the fight to go the distance, I believe we will see this world title bout go the full 25 minutes.

Furthermore, this co-main event has the potential to steal the show and to be the best women’s contest of 2021.

Usman Beats Masvidal via Decision (-130)

UFC welterweight kingpin Kamaru Usman is a massive betting favorite for his world title defense with odds ranging from -400 to -470. Jorge Masvidal is a large underdog with odds ranging from +265 to +350.

This contest is a rematch from last year where Usman won via decision. I expect the same result for this weekend’s main event title match as well.

The O/U is set at 4.5 rounds with the Over at -190. The prop bet for the fight to go the distance is favored at -180. And, the prop for the fight to start the 5th round is favored at -215. Online betting sites clearly think that this bout is going the full 25 minutes.

But, that’s not all!

Jorge Masvidal has gone to a decision in 28 of his 49 pro fights. In Usman’s 13 UFC fights, he’s gone the distance in nine of them.

Until Usman is stopped, I just don’t have the confidence that Masvidal will score a TKO/KO on Saturday. And, that’s the only shot he has at winning the fight.

Instead, I see Usman employing a similar smothering game plan that he did against Masvidal in their fight last summer.

Usman will either push Masvidal up against the cage and hold him there or he will take down Jorge and ride top control for long stretches of time. Either way, Usman will win via decision despite my hopes of Masvidal pulling off the upset.