3 Tips for a More Profitable MLB Betting Strategy

Major League Baseball doesn’t get the credit it deserves as a sports betting opportunity. Perhaps it’s simply the fact that most baseball fans tend to only follow “their” team and don’t have a great idea about what’s happening around the league.

If you take the time to understand the sport and its players, you might find that making money betting on baseball is easier than with other major sports (like the NFL, believe it or not).

In this article, I’ll explain three tips you can use to put together a more profitable betting strategy.

1 – Be Wary of Betting Favorites

If you’re not entirely familiar with how betting on baseball works—and many non-baseball fans probably fall into this category—it’s important to mention that most of the action comes in on the moneyline. In a sport which has its worst teams winning 60+ games per year and the best teams losing around that amount, it presents a unique opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the huge number of “upsets.”

On any given night, nobody is surprised when a team loses regardless of the opponent. If the Kansas City Chiefs, for example, lose to the last-place team in their division in the middle of the football season, it’s headline news. It’s just not this way in baseball. What does that mean? Underdogs have a high amount of value.

With all of this in mind, is it really that simple as saying you should bet on underdogs every game and hope that your wins cover your losses over the course of a season? This isn’t necessarily backed by a readily-available data set, but I would say yes, for the most part.

When you search around the internet for information to help you bet on baseball with more success, there’s no question you’ll come across some articles that will tell you to bet as many underdogs as possible and to never give up value by betting on favorites. The problem with this advice is that it assumes you’re going to be betting on every single game.

This is a common myth perpetuated on a number of betting sites, and it’s probably cost their readers money. Yes, the mathematical equations will bear out that over the course of 10 seasons you would have made a 10% profit if you only bet on underdogs on every single game…for a decade.

I’m going to assume you’re not going to be betting on every single game. So, where does that leave you? Get to know the sport you’re betting on, especially the pitchers. And seek out games when good pitchers who play for bad teams are underdogs. The biased public will assume that the better team will win, further increasing the value for the underdog.

Regardless of the sport, it’s always good to put yourself in a position where you stand to gain more than you have to risk. Baseball not only gives you plenty of those opportunities, but a high percentage of them actually hit, too.

2 – Consider the Run Line for Favorites

It’s probably unrealistic to think that anyone is solely going to bet on underdogs every single time. That would take some of the fun out of betting quite frankly.

So, how do you bet on a favorite when the moneyline has them at -190? You’ll cringe as you type in your bet and see “Risk $95 to win $50” and if you’re a smart bettor who appreciates the concept of value, you’ll move on to something a bit more reasonable. Is there a way to get better odds while still putting money on the favorite? The answer is a resounding yes, and it’s found in the run line.

For those who haven’t bet on baseball much in the past, the “run line” is essentially like a point spread for baseball. The reason they don’t just call it the spread is because it’s the same numbers every time. They are: -1.5, -2.5, -3.5, -4.5, etc.

The list might go higher depending on which platform you’re using to bet, but in all likelihood you aren’t going to be betting on a team to win by 5 runs no matter how good they are.

There’s no other way to say it. The run line changes the odds dramatically. For example, a team that was -150 could go all the way up to +110 if you take the -1.5 run line. Obviously, the team you’re betting on will have to win by more runs, but the risk might be worth it. When you think about it, if a team is already heavily-favored to win a game, is it that much of a stretch to think that they’ll be able to win by two or more?

I wouldn’t recommend substituting betting the run line for taking favorites on a regular basis. Meaning, teams win games by a 1-run margin all the time. So, if you can make a bet where a team simply needs to win by any number of runs, it’s a little bit of a safer play. With that being said, if you’re really confident about a favorite, do yourself a favor and tip the odds to give yourself better value.

3 – Consider Prop Bets

Prop bets are always a controversial topic. Regardless of how much you love them, and many sports bettors do have a soft spot for props, you have to admit that they’re largely unpredictable. When the odds are right though, it’s okay to put up with a little bit of uncertainty.

Of course there are the prop bets you’d expect in baseball such as, “Will Player X hit a double this game (+290 yes, -210 no)?” Or it could be something along the lines of, “Will X Pitcher finish with more than 6 strikeouts (+120 yes, -115 no)?” When it comes to these types of plays it’s all about—you guessed it—value!

Most bettors who have success regularly betting props, in all sports, are the ones who play the odds rather than try to predict the results. Prop bet odds have much more to do with the public’s money than the oddsmakers. This means that the closing odds for whether or not someone will hit a home run that game will be determined by how much money is on “yes” and how much is on “no,” not necessarily how likely it is to happen.

The reason I mention the impact of public money is because as bettors, it’s easy to get conditioned to think that the odds are a reflection of the chances an event has of happening or not happening. It makes sense to think that way as the odds and probabilities do often line up. It’s not always that way, though.

Some prop bets offered at online baseball betting sites that I personally like to play have to do with team performance. For example, the 5-inning line is a very popular option among those who bet on baseball regularly. As you might guess by the name, the 5-inning line functions just like the full game moneyline but the result is determined after the fifth inning. What’s the advantage? The odds, of course.

Depending on a team’s pitching situation, meaning the strength of their starter and the quality of their bullpen, the odds for the 5-inning line might be more favorable. In any case, it’s always worth checking as you might be able to get a favorite for a better price if you bet on the inning line instead of the full game. Also, you might have a better chance of winning your bet if you’re wagering on an underdog.

The bottom line is that prop bets are never going to be easy to predict and in many ways they’re just like taking a lottery ticket. If you can get a prop bet with the right odds, take a chance and see what happens.

Conclusion

Betting on baseball is a great way to enjoy summer nights while adding a little extra padding to your bankroll before football season. The key is having the discipline to not overpay when moneylines start inflating to levels that reduce value significantly.

Just like the actual sport itself, betting on baseball is a marathon. You’re going to go through good weeks and bad weeks. But if you stay the course and stick to your strategy, you’ll likely end the season in a pretty good place.