Atlantic City could lose more than 8,100 casino jobs and nearly $1.3 billion in annual revenue by 2035 if three planned New York City casinos and two potential North Jersey casinos open alongside continued growth in online gambling and persistent inflation, according to a Greater Atlantic City Casino-Hotel Employment Exposure Assessment report released Tuesday by the Atlantic County Economic Alliance.
The losses would represent more than one-third of current casino employment and over 44% of current revenue. Under a baseline scenario excluding North Jersey casinos, the alliance projects losses of 5,100 jobs and nearly $815 million in revenue by 2035.
The nonprofit economic development corporation, established in 2017 for county business attraction, retention and marketing, includes county and local governments, casino interests, Stockton University, private companies and banks. Casino executives and analysts reviewed the report’s methodology and conclusions before release.
“This is a planning document, not a doomsday prophecy,” said Max Slusher, the group’s director of business development. “But the size of the exposure is real, and the region needs to see it clearly before more competitive pressure is added.”
“History has taught us that Atlantic City is resilient and can absorb one shock at a time,” he said. “But the region cannot absorb five monumental challenges stacking on top of each other unless we develop a plan. We built four planning cases instead of a single forecast, so decision-makers can see the full range of what is at stake, and act before the choice is made for them.”
The report identifies five threats: continued movement from in-person casino gambling toward online gambling and sports betting; three New York City casinos being developed by Hard Rock, Bally’s and Resorts World; possible North Jersey casinos; persistent inflation; and a proposed full-scale convention center at the Meadowlands.
If all materialized, the alliance said the impact would resemble Atlantic City’s 2013-2016 crisis, when five casinos closed, two of which later reopened under new brands.
Nearly seven in 10 Atlantic City casino-hotel workers, or 14,723 of 21,172 jobs reported statewide, live in Atlantic City, Pleasantville, Egg Harbor Township, Galloway Township and Hamilton Township, concentrating the potential impact in those communities.
The report recommends strengthening conventions, meetings and nongambling tourism, improving and beautifying the city, continuing investment in casino and hotel properties, and prioritizing regional economic diversification and living-wage job creation.
It identifies conventions as the strongest available channel for absorbing some displaced casino workers because occupations such as banquet service, culinary work, housekeeping, transportation and audiovisual support are more transferable to meetings and convention operations than to online gambling jobs.
Gary Musich, president and CEO of Visit Atlantic City, said a proposed Meadowlands convention center could undermine that strategy. “If you’re going to build a brand new facility to compete with one you already own that hasn’t had any money put into it in 29 years, you need to (invest in the Atlantic City Convention Center) to maintain that business,” Musich said.
“If you invest in this, we become a development hub, and you grow that market for the state of New Jersey, not just moving it from South Jersey to North Jersey.”
Continued investment could become harder as casino profitability weakens. Figures released Monday showed the industry’s combined second-quarter gross operating profit fell 9.3%.
The alliance also recommended delaying consideration of casinos elsewhere in New Jersey until protections for the Casino Revenue Fund are funded and measures are in place, including worker retraining, social and family assistance, union job protections and support for businesses dependent on the casino-hotel industry in Atlantic City, Pleasantville, Egg Harbor Township, Hamilton Township and Galloway Township.
George Goldhoff, president of the Casino Association of New Jersey and Hard Rock Hotel & Casino Atlantic City, said the potential impact extends beyond gaming revenue because the casino industry supports thousands of jobs and contributes to the Casino Revenue Fund used for programs benefiting seniors and disabled residents.
He said the industry was not seeking to stop competition, but wanted the state to plan for its effects before employment losses materialize.
Danielle Norcross, president and CEO of the Greater Atlantic City Chamber, said the consequences would also spread through South Jersey’s business community. She pointed to restaurants, retailers, contractors, suppliers and professional service companies that depend on casino-related economic activity, arguing that further pressure on the industry would affect businesses and communities beyond Atlantic City’s casino properties.
