UFC on ESPN 15: Edgar vs Munhoz Prelims Betting Preview, Odds and Picks

On Saturday, August 22^nd, the UFC will be live once again from their APEX center in Las Vegas for another exciting event. This weekend’s UFC on ESPN 15 card features some intriguing matchups. But, before we can look at the main card fights, let’s take a closer look at the preliminary card.

The UFC on ESPN 15 prelims features at least six fights. However, this could change by time we get to fight night. Between bouts being scrapped and rescheduled to combatants needing new opponents, the preliminary card has been under constant change. The prelims are set to start at 5:30PM ET on ESPN and ESPN+.

Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine the latest odds from the best UFC betting sites, identify any upsets or betting value, and make these predictions submit to an armbar.

Dwight Grant vs Jared Gooden

Jared Gooden was set to face Dwight Grant in his UFC debut, but Gooden withdrew from the event this week due to an injury. The UFC is still trying to find Grant a replacement opponent. As of this publication, there has been no updates on a new challenger for Grant.

Maki Pitolo vs Impa Kasanganay

• Maki Pitolo (+130)
• Impa Kasanganay (-150)

This middleweight fight has been removed from UFC on ESPN 15 and rescheduled for UFC Fight Night: Smith vs Rakic, which is on August 29^th. Although it’s still listed with MMA betting sites for this weekend’s event, the UFC made the late change just prior to the writing of this article.

Jordan Wright vs Isaac Villanueva

• Jordan Wright (NA)
• Isaac Villanueva (NA)

This fight was originally scheduled as Isaac Villanueva taking on Jorge Gonzalez where Villanueva was the slight favorite at -130 odds. However, Gonzalez was pulled from the event and Jordan Wright will now take his place.

There are currently no betting odds for this matchup as it was announced late Tuesday night.

Villanueva lost in his UFC debut three months ago via 2^nd round TKO to Chase Sherman. The loss snapped a four fight win streak. 13 of his 16 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Jordan Wright enters undefeated. He’s best remembered for fighting Anthony Hernandez to a no contest on DWNC two years ago. Wright last fought in January and won via 2^nd round TKO in the LFA. All 10 of his wins have come via stoppage. He’s never gone the distance.

Nine of Villanueva’s 10 losses have come via stoppage and I believe he will get #11 this weekend. I like what I’ve seen from Wright much more than anything Villanueva has shown me. Although there’s no betting odds for this bout as of publication, I’m taking Wright to win inside the distance.

Matt Semelsberger vs Carlton Minus

• Matt Semelsberger (+105)
• Carlton Minus (-125)
• Over (-185)/Under (+160) 2.5 rounds

Carlton Minus is the slight favorite, but took this fight on short notice as he fills in for Philip Rowe. Minus will make his UFC debut this weekend after spending most of his career in Alaska for a regional promotion. He suffered his first loss two years ago in PFL to Ricky Story.

Minus last fought six months ago and won via unanimous decision. Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with six by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-0 when going the distance.

Matt Semelsberger will also make his UFC debut this weekend and rides into the octagon on a three fight winning streak. He also fought six months ago and was victorious via 1^st round KO.

Five of his six pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-0 when going to a decision.

Fortunately for Minus, Matt Semelsberger isn’t a grappler which is Carlton’s biggest weakness. We will get a standup, striking battle for this fight and I give the edge to Minus who is more technically sound than Semelsberger who is more of a brawler.

Take the Over 2.5 rounds (-185) as this will go to a decision (-165). Carlton Minus will win via unanimous decision due to outboxing his opponent for three rounds.

Timur Valiev vs Mark Striegl

• Timur Valiev (-525)
• Mark Striegl (+415)
• Over (-240)/Under (+200) 2.5 rounds

Mark Striegl enters his UFC debut as the second biggest underdog for the entire event. He last fought in April 2019 and it was a NC due to a low blow. Striegl is unbeaten in his last five contests. 14 of 18 pro wins have come via submission. He’s 4-0 when going the distance.

Timur Valiev will be making his UFC debut as well. He’s on a six fight win streak that spanned a few years in WSOF and PFL where he built up a solid reputation. Valiev last fought in December and won via unanimous decision.

Seven of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 9-2 when going to a decision.

This fight basically comes down to Striegl trying to get Valiev down to the mat. Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening as Timur has a solid takedown defense and strong scrambling skills. He’s also the better striker with a high volume of aggressive striking.

Striegl has never been knocked out and Valiev isn’t known as a submission artist. More than likely, this fight will go Over 2.5 rounds (-240) as it goes the distance. I expect Valiev to pick up a unanimous decision due to landing more strikes and defending the takedown.

Austin Hubbard vs Joseph Solecki

• Austin Hubbard (+125)
• Joseph Solecki (-145)
• Over (-290)/Under (+245) 2.5 rounds

Hubbard is the slight underdog with a 2-2 record inside the octagon. He last fought two months ago and won via 2^nd round TKO over rising prospect Max Rohskopf. Hubbard has faced tough competition his entire UFC tenure and is battled tested.

Seven of his 12 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He is 5-3 when going the distance.

Solecki is on a four fight win streak that includes a submission victory on DWCS 13 months ago and a unanimous decision win over Matt Wiman in his UFC debut last December. Six of his nine pro wins have come via submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

This fight comes down to Hubbard’s striking versus Solecki’s grappling. Unfortunately for Hubbard, he’s vastly outmatched on the mat. Whereas, Solecki is proficient enough on his feet to work for the takedown.

I’m not sure either man will get the stoppage in this matchup, so I am going with the fight surpassing the 2.5 round mark (-290) and going the distance (-270). I like Solecki to pick up the decision win due to his grappling, takedowns, and ground control.

Mizuki Inoue vs Amanda Lemos

• Mizuki Inoue (-140)
• Amanda Lemos (+120)
• Over (-220)/Under (+180) 2.5 rounds

Amanda Lemos made her UFC debut in July 2017, but came up short to Leslie Smith via 2^nd round TKO. She then took off two years before returning to the octagon in December 2019 where she defeated Miranda Granger via submission.

All seven of her pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. She’s gone the distance just one time and the result was a draw.

Mizuki Inoue is a tough Japanese fighter who made her UFC debut one year ago and won via split decision. She’s currently 6-1 in her last seven fights and hasn’t fought yet in 2020. Nine of her 14 pro wins have come via submission. She’s 5-4 when going the distance.

Inoue has a lot more experience than Lemos does. She also has proven to be a very tough out. The former Deep Jewels champ is tough on her feet, but even better on the mat.

Inoue has never been stopped before, whereas Lemos has been stopped once. With that said, I see this fight going the distance (-190). I believe the two combatants will prove too tough to be stopped this weekend. I see Inoue picking up the win due to her overall experience and toughness so take the moneyline in this MMA fight.

Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson

• Mariya Agapova (-1250)
• Shana Dobson (+800)
• Over (+140)/Under (-160) 1.5 rounds

Depending on which MMA site you look at, this fight has been listed on the main card and the preliminary card. According to UFC.com, as of this writing, the fight has been positioned on the upper portion of the prelims.

This women’s flyweight bout also has the largest betting odds disparity for the entire UFC on ESPN 15 event as Agapova is a massive betting favorite and Dobson is a huge underdog.

Dobson will enter the octagon for the 5^th time in her career where she has fallen to 1-3 and is on a three fight losing streak. She last fought in February and lost via 1^st round KO to Priscila Cachoeira. She’s 2-3 when going the distance and has both a TKO/KO win and loss.

Agapova is one of the rising prospects in the women’s world of MMA. At just 23 years old, there are high expectations for Mariya. Yet, the UFC is being smart by taking things slowly as she’s still a bit rough around the edges.

Since the lone loss of her career, a decision defeat at DWCS 13 months ago, Agapova has gone 3-0 with all three fights ending in stoppages. Seven of her nine pro wins have come via stoppage. She’s 2-1 when going the distance.

I don’t see this fight going the distance. In fact, I have a hard time seeing it get out of the first round. Agapova is far and away a better fighter than Dobson who’s nothing more than a glorified sparring partner in this matchup.

Agapova is the better striker, stronger and more aggressive. I expect her to pounce on Dobson right away and eventually end the fight with a TKO/KO win Under 1.5 rounds (-160).