2020 Tour de France Betting Guide: Odds, Props, Yellow Jersey Winner

On Saturday, August 29^th, the 107^th edition of the Tour de France will take place after being pushed back nearly two months due to the health crisis throughout the world. This Grand Tour will last three weeks as it wraps up on September 20^th after nearly 2,200 miles of racing.

The Grand Depart is set to begin in Nice this year, which is the second time that the city has held such a landmark occasion with the first occurrence taking place in 1981. It’s also the 36^th time that the Tour de France has come through Nice.

The 2020 Tour de France features eight mountain stages, four summit finishes, and just one time trial which heads up a Category 1 climb. Organizers threw the riders right into the fire with the first day in mountains coming on Stage 2.

Heading into this year’s “Super Bowl of cycling,” there are numerous storylines making the headlines. The most notable storylines to keep an eye on during this year’s Tour de France are:

• Team Ineos leaving Gerraint Thomas and Chris Froome off their squad
• Peter Sagan going for an 8^th Green Jersey
• Only one Time Trial
• How will a shortened season affect the riders
• The battle between Team Ineos and Team Jumbo-Visma

Tour de France betting sites have released their odds on all of the major TDF jersey classifications. This article is exclusively focusing on the overall contenders for the General Classification and the yellow jersey. Let’s take a closer look at the real “men of state” for this year’s Tour de France.

2020 Tour de France Course Preview

The following is a quick overview of the route for the 2020 Tour de France:

Week 1 Highlights

The opening stage should be an opportunity for sprinters to take the win. However, that quickly changes when Stage 2 goes right into the mountains with two Category 1 climbs. Typically, the first few days are flat, but not this year.

Stage 3 is a hilly day where the peloton should be together at the end of the stage for a sprint finish. Stage 4 is another hilly day, but ends with a Category 1 climb. Stage 5 is a traditional flat stage where sprinters will get another chance to shine.

Stage 6 has a few climbs with a Category 1 near the end, while Stage 7 returns to flat grounds.

Week 2 Highlights

Stage 8 is the first true mountain stage as riders head into the Pyrenees with two Category 1 climbs and an HC climb. Stage 9 is a second straight day of mountains with five climbs including two Category 1 climbs. Following the rest day, Stage 10 is a flat day for the riders to get their legs back under them.

Stage 11 is flat and Stage 12 is hilly, but both should be for the sprinters as there’s enough time for the peloton to catch back up in the final 20 km. Yet, Stage 12 could be a day for the breakaway as well.

Stage 13 is a medium mountain day and Stage 14 is flat as both stages should be easy going for the GC contenders.

Week 3 Summary

Stage 15 is a tough mountain stage with two Category 1 climbs and a summit finish on the Grand Colombier. Stage 16 is another mountain stage, but ideal for the breakaway as the GC contenders will look to battle it out in Stage 17 with two HC climbs and a summit finish on Meribel on the Col de la Loze.

Stage 18 has four category climbs including the HC on Montee du Plateau des Gileres. It will be the final day in the mountains and the last chance for the GC contenders to separate themselves.

Stage 19 is a flat stage to satiate the sprinters who survived the mountains. Stage 20 is the only time trial this year and it’s up La Planche des Belles Filles which is a Category 1 climb. The podium, and probably the yellow jersey, will be decided on this day.

Stage 21 is the final day and the most celebrated as the riders head into Paris on the Champs-Elysees. It’s a sprinter’s dream to win this stage.

Tour de France Yellow Jersey Betting Odds

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Primoz Roglic (+150)
• Egan Bernal (+200)
• Tom Dumoulin (+650)
• Thibaut Pinot (+750)
• Richard Carapaz (+1200)
• Tadej Pogacar (+1400)
• Pavel Sivakov (+2000)
• Julian Alaphilippe (+2200)
• Emanuel Buchmann (+2500)
• Nairo Quintana(+2500)
• Miguel Angel Lopez (+3300)
• Mikel Landa (+4000)
• Adam Yates (+5000)
• Enric Mas Nicolau (+6600)
• Romain Bardet (+6600)
• Steven Kruijwijk(+6600)
• Bauke Mollema (+8000)
• Lennard Kamna (+8000)
• Sepp Kuss (+8000)
• George Bennett (+10000)
• Guillaume Martin (+10000)
• Richie Porte (+10000)
• Rigoberto Uran (+12500 )
• Sergio Higuita (+15000)
• Alejandro Valverde (+20000)
• Fabio Aru (+25000)

The TDF Betting Favorites

According to most Tour de France betting sites, the following cyclists are the odds on favorites to win this year’s TDF:

Primoz Roglic: To Win (+150) – Podium Finish (-286)

Roglic enters the Tour de France as the betting favorite to win his first TDF. The 30 year old Slovenian has looked good this year in limited racing after winning the Tour de l’Ain and dominating the Criterium du Dauphine before pulling out on the final day due to a crash.

There is some concern over Roglic’s health following that crash. Although he’s expected to race in the TDF, Primoz might need the first week to fully recover.

Roglic has competed in five Grand Tours and won the 2019 Veulta a Espana. He also finished 3^rd at the Giro d’Italia last year, but didn’t compete in the 2019 TDF. Roglic’s two previous TDF appearances saw him finish 4^th in 2018 and 58^th in 2017.

Big names missing here (ala Froome, Thomas) 😳 #tourdefrancepic.twitter.com/U9nmQWyg0d

— FloBikes (@flobikes) August 19, 2020

This year, Roglic has arguably the best team in the TDF despite losing one of his big guns in Steven Kruijswijk who suffered injuries at the Criterium du Dauphine due to a hard crash.

Roglic’s top help in the mountains are Sepp Kuss and Tom Dumoulin. Kuss could be a future Tour de France winner as he looked amazing in the Criterium du Dauphine crushing all of the top rivals as he set the pace for Roglic up the toughest climbs.

Dumoulin is a former Grand Tour winner and one of the betting favorites this year. Also on the team are talented cyclists George Bennett, Robert Gesink, Tony Martin and Wout Van Aert. From flat roads to the mountains, Roglic has the teammates to keep him in the front and at the top of the standings.

At the very least, Roglic should be on the podium this year and is a legitimate threat to prevent Egan Bernal from winning a second consecutive Tour de France.

Egan Bernal: To Win (+200) – Podium Finish (-200)

As mentioned, Egan Bernal is the defending Tour de France champion and the clear-cut leader of Team Ineos. The team decided to leave Chris Froome and Geraint Thomas at home as they built the squad around Bernal for now and for years to come.

Reportedly, Froome will be the leader at the Vuelta a Espana and Thomas will get the leadership role at the Giro d’Italia. Nevertheless, Bernal will be without two of his most experienced teammates who have combined to win five Tour de France races.

Fortunately for Egan, Team Ineos will still field a strong roster with Castroviejo, Kwiatkowski and Rowe helping out. Additionally, Bernal has two strong lieutenants in Pavel Sivakov and Richard Carapaz who is also listed high among the betting favorites.

Sivakov is just 23 years old like Bernal and the future is bright for this Russian cyclist. I expect him to be with Bernal in the mountains. I’ll discuss Carapaz in more detail down below.

Egan Bernal, like Roglic, enters the TDF less than 100 percent with back issues that he suffered at the Criterium. Prior to the injury, Bernal was 2^nd at Tour de l’Ain, 1^st at La Route d’Occitanie and 4^th at Tour Colombia 2.1.

He was looking good since the restart of the season and right there with Roglic until the back issues. With both of the favorites allegedly coming in at less than 100%, it will be interesting to see which one can recover quicker.

Tom Dumoulin: To Win (+650) – Podium Finish (+140)

Dumoulin is certainly a name we should all pay attention to, but I must caution you if you are looking to place a wager on him.

• First, Dumoulin is on a team with a few other big guns like Primoz Roglic who’s considered the leader for the Tour de France. It will take a Roglic crash or bad health for Dumoulin to get bumped up to the top spot on this team.
• Second, even if something happens to Roglic there’s still Sepp Kuss who looks in great form right now. In fact, he looks in better form than Dumoulin and certainly could steal a leadership role that’s up for grabs if Roglic is hurt or pulls out.
• Third, Dumoulin missed almost a year of racing due to an injury and has only participated in two events since his return where he was 11^th at the Tour de l’Ain and 7^th at the Criterium du Dauphine. He’s improving with each day on the bike, but there are a lot of factors working against him.

Dumoulin’s last TDF appearance was in 2018 where he finished 2^nd to Thomas. He was also 2^nd at the Giro d’Italia that year as well.

Unfortunately, Dumoulin didn’t finish the Giro last year and missed most of the season due to injuries. Returning to the Tour de France after a limited season so far, also doesn’t work in his favor.

I actually think that Dumoulin is overvalued here. He has a better chance at the Giro or Vuelta this year than the TDF. I don’t even see Dumoulin finishing in the Top 5.

Thibaut Pinot: To Win (+750) – Podium Finish (+160)

It’s been 35 years since a Frenchman has won the Tour de France. This year, Thibaut Pinot for Groupama-FDJ is France’s best hope at winning the TDF or at least finishing on the podium.

Like with other teams, Pinot is the clear leader of FDJ. However, unlike other teams that have riders going for stages or different jerseys, Groupama is only focused on getting Pinot on the podium and challenging for the win.

This is Pinot’s 8^th appearance in the Tour de France. However, the last few years haven’t been kind to the French rider. Pinot didn’t finish the TDF in 2019, 2017, 2016 and 2013. He didn’t race in the 2018 TDF, but chose to do the Giro and Vuelta instead.

It’s all about Thibaut Pinot for Groupama-FDJ at the Tour de France. But does the team have the firepower and does Pinot have the head to meet French expectations?

Our guide to Groupama-FDJ at the Tour de France: https://t.co/7o063Kd1RO

— VeloNews (@velonews) August 22, 2020

When he does finish the Tour de France, Pinot shows promise. Thibaut was 10^th in 2012, 3^rd in 2014, and 16^th in 2015. Pinot was on his way to a podium finish last year before a knee injury forced him out.

Groupama-FDJ built this team to keep Pinot out of trouble on the flat stages with Kung being the key man. They also have three strong climbers in Molard, Gaudu and Reichenbach that will be there to support Pinot in the mountains.

Since cycling returned to racing, Pinot has looked solid with a 5^th at Paris-Nice, 4^th at La Route d’Occitanie, and 2^nd at the Criterium du Dauphine. He was in the lead at Dauphine, but had no teammates to help him when the other contenders launched attacks in the mountains.

Now, Pinot will have more firepower in the mountains for the Tour and appeared in good enough shape to hang with Bernal and Roglic at the Dauphine.

If he stays in the race, and that is a big “if,” all of France will be rooting on Pinot to challenge for the maillot jaune. That’s a lot of pressure for one rider, but this could be the year that Thibaut finally delivers.

Richard Carapaz: To Win (+1200) – Podium Finish (+275)

The 27 year old rider from Ecuador made headlines when he was included on Team Ineos’ TDF roster. Froome and Thomas were bumped off the TDF team, but Carapaz somehow made the cut.

What’s confusing about this is the fact that Carapaz is a GC contender who is the reigning Giro d’Italia champ. In fact, he was expected to be the leader for Ineos at the Giro this year. Now, there’s talks of Geraint Thomas leading the team.

With Carapaz in the Tour de France, it’s unclear as to what his role will be. Is he going to be a co-leader or a super domestique?

Ineos’ boss Dave Brailsford said that Bernal was the leader, but that they were going to try and get Carapaz up there for yellow too.

The decision to bring Carapaz has some pundits and fans wondering if Bernal is truly 100% healthy. If both are in top form, then this is arguably the best 1-2 combo in the mountains. Only Roglic and Dumoulin or Roglic and Kupp can compete.

As for wagering on Carapaz, I would hold off. Bernal is the defending champ and the “outright leader” of Team Ineos. It’s best to wait and see how Bernal looks in the first week. If he’s showing signs of weakness, then Carapaz becomes a viable option to wager on.

Tadej Pogacar: To Win (+1400) – Podium Finish (+250)

The 21 year old Slovenian is making his Tour de France debut and he could definitely make some noise at this year’s TDF. He’s officially listed as a co-leader of UAE Team Emirates, but Pogacar is in better form than Fabio Aru.

Aru’s getting respect by being called a co-leader, but Pogacar is the man the team will work for once they get into the final week of the race.

This season, Pogacar was 4^th in the Dauphine, 12^th at Milano-Sanremo, 13^th at Strade Blanche and 2^nd at the UAE Tour.

Pogacar does have some Grand Tour experience as well. He finished 3^rd in the Vuelta a Espana last year after winning three stages. He also won the Tour of California in 2019

UAE Team Emirates has strong climbers to support Pogacar in the mountains. In addition to Aru, they also have Jan Polanc and David de la Cruz. On the flat stages, they have Alexander Kristoff and Davide Formolo.

This team is flying under the radar and Pogacar could surprise the rest of the peloton with a podium finish.

The Best TDF Betting Value

Nairo Quintana (+2500) is my pick for the best betting value in this year’s Tour de France. Not only does he offer large odds on winning the Tour, but I believe there’s even better value with Quintana finishing on the podium at +700 odds.

Quintana has been one of the top GC riders for the last five or six years. Yes, he’s fallen short in his quest to upstage Team Sky/Team Ineos, but so has everyone else.

Although he hasn’t won the Tour de France, Quintana has finished on the podium three times in six appearances. Last year, he was 8^th overall but that was partly due to Movistar having three captains instead of just one.

This year, Quintana is the clear leader of Team Arkea Samsic as he left Movistar in the offseason. He will have some firepower with him in the mountains especially if Warren Barguil is in good form.

Quintana was 3^rd at the Tour de l’Ain, 1^st at the Tour de Alpes and 1^st at the Tour de La Provence. He was in a high place at the Criterium du Dauphine before pulling out due to knee soreness.

If Quintana is in good form, and some of the other GC contenders are injured, the Colombian could be a serious threat for the yellow jersey and definitely a spot on the podium.

Longshot to Win the 2020 Tour de France

Mikel Landa (+4000) is my longshot pick to win the Tour this year, but a podium finish isn’t that farfetched (+700).

Landa is the leader of Bahrain-McLaren who has built a team to help the Spaniard in the mountains. He will have Wout Poels and Damiano Caruso along with Pello Bilbao and Rafa Valls to provide him support during the Alps and Pyrenees.

We’re proud to reveal our squad for the @LeTour.

🇪🇸 @MikelLandaMeana

🇪🇸 @PelloBilbao1990

🇮🇹 @CarusoDamiano

🇮🇹 @sonnycolbrelli

🇦🇹 @mhaller91

🇸🇮 @matmohoric

🇳🇱 @WoutPoels

🇪🇸 @RafaVallsFerri #RideAsOne #TDF2020

➡️ https://t.co/qeRlTRl6ZP pic.twitter.com/DIIppouu71

— Team Bahrain McLaren (@BahrainMcLaren) August 21, 2020

So far in 2020, Landa was 3^rd at the Vuelta a Andalucia and 2^nd at the Vuelta a Burgos. However, he was 18^th at the Dauphine, but looked more like he was training than trying to win.

Landa has raced in 13 Grand Tours, but this will be only his 5^th appearance in the Tour de France. Last year, Landa was 6^th overall. He was 7^th in 2018, 4^th in 2017 and 35^th in 2016.

With a good team around him, and not a lot of expectations from the general public, media outlets, or cycling betting sites, Landa could fly under the radar and be in position to get at least a podium by time they ride into Paris.

Avoid Betting on These Cyclists

Professional cycling has many stars of the sport. However, the following well-known cyclists should be avoided during the 2020 Tour de France:

• Pavel Sivakov (+2000) is the 3^rd member of Team Ineos and will be tasked with helping Bernal and Carapaz. Despite being a talented rider, he’s destined to support the leaders.
• Julian Alaphilippe (+2200) is one of my favorite cyclists to watch whether it’s in a one day classic or a Grand Tour. He’s always providing excitement and makes every race that he’s competing in even more entertaining. Although he held the yellow jersey last year longer than anyone expected, he can’t hang in the high mountains with the top GC contenders.
• Emanuel Buchmann (+2500) finished 4^th in the Tour de France last year and would’ve been a contender for the podium this year if he hadn’t crashed in the Criterium du Dauphine. He’s going to be less than 100% and will be lucky to finish in the Top 10 due to his injuries.
• Adam Yates (+5000) is another talented rider who’s heading to Team Ineos next year. However, he’s been given the green light to hunt for stage wins as Team Mitchelton-Scott has already waived the white flag on going for the yellow jersey.
• Last, but not least is Richie Porte (+10000). Longtime readers will remember my rants about Porte over the years including on some of our past podcasts. Porte is a recognizable name that’s never finished higher than 5^th in any Grand Tour. He’s also crashed out of two of the last three TDF races.

Who Will Win the 2020 Tour de France?

My Top 5 riders, in no particular order, are Egan Bernal, Primoz Roglic, Nairo Quintana, Thibaut Pinot, and Tadej Pogacar. I think these will be the five best riders by time it’s all said and done. Quintana comes on strong in week 3, so don’t get scared if he’s down in the standings for a while.

Before I pick the winner, let’s take care of who will finish on the podium: Bernal, Roglic and Pogacar. I can easily see Quintana or Pinot finishing 3^rd, but I really like what Pogacar has been doing and he’s on a strong team as well.

As for the winner, I am going with Primoz Roglic. Both he and Bernal are banged up, but Roglic looked much better than Bernal in the Criterium du Dauphine before both men dropped out of the race due to injuries. Nobody was close to Roglic’s level in that race other than teammate Sepp Kuss.

I like the duo of Kuss and Dumoulin as supporters for Roglic over Carapaz and Sivakov for Bernal. Furthermore, we’re not even sure if Carapaz will help at all. Dumoulin has already stated that Roglic was the leader.

With Dumoulin and Kuss in the mountains, a strong time trialist, and provided that he’s fully healthy, Roglic is better positioned to win the TDF than Bernal. Yes, it’s a three week long race and anything can happen, but I love how strong Team Jumbo-Visma is on paper for the 2020 Tour.

Roglic proved last year with a 3^rd in the Giro d’Italia and winning the Vuelta a Espana that he’s ready to be the next big GC winner of the Tour de France.

Tour de France Betting Recap

Winner

• Primoz Roglic (+150)

Betting Value

• Nairo Quintana (+2500)

Longshot

• Mikel Landa (+4000)

Podium

• Primoz Roglic (-286)
• Egan Bernal (-200)
• Tadej Pogacar (+250)

Other 2020 Tour de France Betting Articles

• Green Jersey Betting
• White Jersey Betting
• Polka dot Jersey Betting