Tour de France Green Jersey Betting Odds: Can Anyone Beat Peter Sagan?

Over the last decade, the points classification, which is represented by a green jersey, has become synonymous with one of cycling’s biggest stars – Peter Sagan. The Slovakian has set an all-time record by winning the green jersey seven times.

Sagan has transformed the way this classification is viewed in the Tour de France. What was once a jersey created to make the sprinters happy, has now become a tactical playground for Sagan.

With that in mind, fans and pundits are buzzing over this being the year that someone dethrones Sagan for the green jersey. Other than being disqualified in 2017 for an incident with Mark Cavendish, which many of us are still upset with the TDF officials, Peter has dominated the classification since 2012.

Online betting sites have once again made Sagan the favorite. Let’s get behind our lead out train, slingshot to the front, and sprint our way to the finishing line with these green jersey predictions.

What Is the Points Classification Competition?

The yellow jersey for the General Classification and the polka dot jersey for the King of the Mountains classification are the two oldest competitions within the Tour de France. It wasn’t until 1953, during the 50^th anniversary of the TDF, that organizers introduced this points classification as a competition.

At the time, a lawn mower company was the sponsor for this new classification, so the race organizers made the jersey green in color.

To win this jersey, cyclists have to collect points on stages which can be at the finishing line or at various points throughout a stage. Typically, the most points are available on flat stages where they end with “sprint finishes.” Riders can also lose points throughout stages for various infractions.

Only four times in the history of the Tour de France has a cyclist won both the yellow and green jerseys: three times by the great Eddy Merckx and once by Bernard Hinault.

Previous Green Jersey Winners

Fritz Schar of Switzerland won the inaugural green jersey competition in 1953. In the 1980’s Sean Kelly would emerge as the best green jersey rider with four wins in this classification from 1982 to 1989.

Yet, in the 1990’s Erik Zabel ended up breaking all of Kelly’s records by winning the points classification six straight years from 1996 to 2001. Zabel’s reign was considered unbeatable until Peter Sagan came along and set the all-time mark with his 7^th green jersey victory in 2019.

The following is a list of the previous green jersey winners dating back to Zabel’s reign:

• Erik Zabel in 1996-2001
• Robbie McEwen in 2002, 2004, 2006
• Baden Cooke in 2003
• Thor Hushovd in 2005, 2009
• Tom Boonen in 2007
• Oscar Freire in 2008
• Alessandro Petacchi in 2010
• Mark Cavendish in 2011
• Peter Sagan in 2012-2016, 2018-2018
• Michael Matthews in 2017

Tour de France Green Jersey Betting Odds

The following odds are courtesy of Bet365:

• Peter Sagan (-175)
• Sam Bennett (+400)
• Wout Van Aert (+550)
• Caleb Ewan (+1000)
• Sonny Colbrelli (+1600)
• Elia Viviani (+2000)
• Glacomo Nizzolo (+2200)
• Matteo Trentin (+2800)
• Luka Mezgec (+2800)
• Primoz Roglic (+4000)
• Julian Alaphilippe (+4000)
• Alexander Kristoff (+5000)

Despite the field having several strong sprinters, the following cyclists are the only riders with a realistic shot at winning the green jersey:

Peter Sagan (-175)

“Mr. Green Jersey” himself, Peter Sagan is entering his 9^th Tour de France and 13^th Grand Tour overall. In addition to winning this classification in seven out of the last eight years, Sagan also has 12 stage wins in the Tour de France.

Yet, there is some concern over Sagan’s chances at winning this competition in 2020. So far, he has not looked in good form on the shortened season.

Sagan was 4^th at Milano-Torino as Caleb Ewan and Wout Van Aert both finished ahead of him. Peter was 4^th at Milano San Remo as Wout Van Aert won that race.

Additionally, Sagan pulled out of the 2020 Criterium du Dauphine on the final stage. Van Aert won this points competition, but Sagan wasn’t even a factor prior to pulling out. His team said that Peter was just using the race for training purposes.

Sagan is one of my favorite cyclists since bursting on the Grand Tour scene in 2012. For the first time since then, I have some serious concerns over his chances of winning the green jersey in the Tour de France.

Sam Bennett (+400)

The 29 year old Bennett, rider for Deceuninck–Quick-Step, will be making his return to the Tour de France for the first time since 2016. Although this is only his 3^rd overall appearance in the TDF, Bennett does have other Grand Tour experience.

He’s competed in two Giro’s and one Vuelta a Espana where he’s gone on to win five total stages.

On the season, Bennett has fared well in points classifications for other races. He was 8^th at the UAE Tour, 4^th at Vuelta a Burgos, and 3^rd at Tour de Wallonie which is a good warmup for the Tour de France.

His team and fans believe that Bennett is rounding into top form just in time for this year’s TDF. With that said, some pundits wonder if Bennett is capable of hanging with other green jersey favorites in such a brutal race and on a team where other cyclists will being going for glory as well.

Wout Van Aert (+550)

Many pundits say that the 25 year old Wout Van Aert is the future of cycling. Yet, I say that the “future” is now. Van Aert is an incredibly talented rider with impressive sprinting skills who can also win intermediate stages just like Peter Sagan and Michael Matthews.

No other cyclist has looked more impressive since the restart of the cycling season than Wout Van Aert. He won Strade Bianche, was 3^rd in Milano Torino, won Milano Sanremo, and won the green jersey for the Criterium du Dauphine, which he did a lot of work for teammate Primoz Roglic.

This will be his second appearance in the Tour de France. Last year, he had a nasty crash that left many pundits questioning whether he will ever fully recover. Not only did he recover, he rode right back to the front of the peloton and has been a star in the 2020 season so far.

Van Aert, his team, fans and pundits have no idea what his full potential is. Yet, we continue to be amazed at what he does on a bike.

Caleb Ewan (+1000)

The 26 year old Australian made his Tour de France debut in 2019 and finished 2^nd in the points classification behind Peter Sagan. Yet, he won three stages and established himself as the top sprinter in the sport.

Ewan continues to hold that mantle in 2020 by winning the green jersey at the UAE Tour, coming in 2^nd at Milano-Torino, and finishing second in the points classification at the Tour de Wallonie.

The Lotto Soudal sprinter is going to get at least one, if not two or three stage wins in this year’s Tour de France. The only question is whether or not he can survive the mountains and gain any available green jersey points throughout those tough stages.

Matteo Trentin (+2800)

Trentin is the longshot of the bunch, but not someone to dismiss. He’s won three stages in the Tour de France and four stages in the Vuelta a Espana.

The 31 year old Italian cyclist will be Team CCC’s best hope at winning the green jersey and has already been given the “green light” to hunt for stage wins.

His best result in the points classification came last year when Trentin finished 6^th. It will take at least one or two stage wins for Trentin to be a real threat in 2020. But, that’s not asking too much considering he can survive the mountain stages better than the pure sprinters.

The 2020 TDF Green Jersey Winner Is…..

Everything in me wants to go with Peter Sagan to win this jersey for an 8^th time. He’s the clear favorite to win the points classification this year, but hasn’t looked in great form during the 2020 season.

The man who’s looked in great form this year is Wout Van Aert. Additionally, he’s on the best team of the Tour de France in Team Jumbo-Visma. I’m having a really difficult time looking past the 25 year old in this competition.

Even Sagan at the Criterium du Dauphine said that Van Aert was a contender for the green jersey in this year’s Tour de France.

As I struggle to make my choice, I’m reminded of a quote from the greatest pro-wrestler of all-time Ric Flair as he always said “to be the man, you gotta beat the man. Woooooooooooooh!!!”

Until someone actually beats Sagan, you have to roll with Peter to win this green jersey competition. However, if you are feeling the winds of change then go with Wout Van Aert.