AFC Playoffs Betting Preview: Can Anyone Upset the Chiefs?

The 2020 NFL regular season has concluded and the 14 team Playoff field has been set. In the AFC, all roads lead through Kansas City as the Chiefs wrapped up the #1 seed with the best record in the NFL at 14-2.

Additionally, as of this year, only the top seeds in each conference get a first round bye. That means while six of the AFC teams are battling it out in the Wild Card round, the Chiefs will rest up and watch the on-field carnage as they wait to see who their opponents will be.

In addition to the Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans all won their respective divisions. They will host the Wild Card games beginning on Saturday, January 9th.

The Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts all captured Wild Card spots with 11-5 records and will try to win on the road this weekend.

The AFC Playoff teams are locked in. 🔒 pic.twitter.com/7jzio5nHTt

— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) January 4, 2021

NFL betting sites have released their odds on who they think will win the AFC along with Super Bowl LV. Let’s huddle up to examine the available betting odds and make our conference winning predictions.

NFL Betting Odds to Win the AFC

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Kansas City Chiefs (+100)
• Buffalo Bills (+325)
• Baltimore Ravens (+550)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)
• Tennessee Titans (+1400)
• Indianapolis Colts (+1800)
• Cleveland Browns (+2200)

Kansas City Chiefs (+100)

It’s no surprise that the Chiefs (14-2) are the odds on favorite to win the AFC this postseason. They won it last year and are the defending Super Bowl champs. Furthermore, the Chiefs have been the best team in the NFL the entire year.

They were 14-1 heading into the final week of the regular season after already clinching the #1 seed in the conference. So, they rested all of their key players and lost to the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Kansas City Chiefs finished with the top offense in yardage at 415.8ypg. They were the top passing offense with 303.4ypg and they finished 6th in scoring.

QB Patrick Mahomes is one of the MVP candidates this year as he had nine games with at least 300 passing yards. He was 3rd this year with 38 TD passes and second for fewest INTs at six. His QB rating was 3rd best at 107.2.

Mahomes will be expected to lead the Chiefs to at least the AFC title game and most likely the Super Bowl. Last year, he averaged 300.3ypg, 10 TDs and just 2 INTs in the Playoffs. This year, his offense is even more loaded with weapons and he could exceed those numbers.

It’s rather surprising that the best team in the NFL is listed at +100 odds when they’re also the defending Super Bowl champs with the best player in the league. There’s a lot of betting value with the Chiefs.

Buffalo Bills (+325)

No other team is hotter or playing better football right now than the Buffalo Bills. This offense has been a juggernaut as they’ve even eclipsed the Chiefs in various stats.

The Bills offense just finished a half point behind the Packers for the top spot in scoring offense at 31.3ppg. Yet, they have been crushing teams the last three weeks as they put up 48pts against Denver, 38pts against the Patriots and 56pts against the Dolphins.

First player in @NFL history with at least 4,500 passing yards, 35 touchdown passes and five rushing touchdowns in a single season. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/La2Qb9KYkU

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 3, 2021

Many pundits feel that Buffalo is the one team that can upset the Chiefs due to their offense and QB Josh Allen.

The NFL MVP award became a three man race with Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. While Rodgers and Mahomes had high preseason expectations, nobody thought that Josh Allen would be mentioned in the same breath as those two QBs, let alone be in the MVP conversation.

Allen broke every Buffalo Bills passing record this year and did so with a swagger that’s hardly seen outside of Mahomes and Rodgers. Furthermore, he finished with 4,544 yards (5th), 37 TDs (5th) and an 81.7 QB (3rd). He also put up eight rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD to give him 46 total TDs on the year.

The offense has been stellar all season long. But, it’s their defense that has become one of the best in the NFL over the last six weeks. With this unit returning to its 2018 and 2019 form, Buffalo has become one of the most complete teams in the Playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens (+550)

The 11-5 Baltimore Ravens made a late season push to the Playoffs that was nothing short of impressive. They turned their season around and won five straight games, which made us all harken back to their 2019 team that was the top seed in the AFC.

We all know what happened last year. After the Ravens came off their first round bye, they lost to the Titans. Now, they get a chance to avenge that loss as they head to Tennessee to take on the Titans once again.

Baltimore hasn’t won a Playoff game since 2014 and they will face a huge task in trying to stop the Titans. Yet, the Ravens appear to have gotten back to their solid defensive ways and steamrolling opposing defenses with their running game.

QB Lamar Jackson topped 1,000 rushing yards this season and has become the only QB in NFL history to have consecutive seasons of 1,000 rushing yards.

The Ravens edged out the Titans as the top rushing team in the NFL at 191.9 rushing yards per game. They also finished 7th in scoring at 28.7ppg.

Defensively, Baltimore struggled at times due to injuries. However, the Ravens expect Jimmy Smith and Yannick Ngakoue to return for the Playoffs. They also just got back Marcus Peters as well.

Like the Bills, the Ravens are a team that nobody wants to play. If they can upset the Titans, then Baltimore could be the first team to try and upset the Chiefs in the Playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200)

At one point in the season, the Steelers were 11-0 and considered the top team in the league. However, they would lose three straight games and fall from 1st to 3rd in the AFC standings. This losing streak also caused a lot of pundits to jump off the team’s bandwagon.

The Pittsburgh Steelers bounced back in Week 16 to defeat the Colts and lock up the AFC North division. They will play against the Browns in the Wild Card round and possibly go to Buffalo in the Divisional round if the favorites win as expected.

#Steelers.

Browns.

Sunday Night.#HereWeGo

📝: https://t.co/hsYasHh91a pic.twitter.com/aXYWgOgETI

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) January 4, 2021

For the Steelers to have any real chance at winning the AFC, they will need to find balance on offense. Pittsburgh is unable to produce a rushing attack as they finished the season dead last at 84.4ypg.

This also limits their play action passing as nobody is threatened by the run. Furthermore, they don’t have a mobile QB which most of the other AFC Playoff teams do except for Philip Rivers with the Colts.

Pittsburgh’s defense will have to play lights out like they did for the first 11 games of the season. They led the league in sacks and had the 5th best turnover differential. They have talent in all three levels of the defense, but failed to play up to their dominating level once injuries hit the team.

I have a hard time seeing the Steelers putting together enough balance on offense to win more than one Playoff game.

Tennessee Titans (+1400)

The Titans won the AFC South division on the last week of the season. And, that was because of running back Derrick Henry who rushed for 250 yards and two TDs. He finished with 2,027 rushing yards and 17 TDs on 378 attempts. Henry led the league in all three categories.

Last year, the Tennessee Titans entered as a Wild Card and upset the Patriots in the opening round. They then went and upset the Baltimore Ravens before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.

The difference between the Titans of this year compared to last year is the fact that Tennessee’s defense is much worse.

They’re 28th in yards allowed at 398.3ypg. They’re 29th against the pass at 277.4ypg, 24th in scoring at 27.4ppg, and 19th against the run at 120.8ypg. The physical style of play that led them to the AFC title game last year is non-existent on defense this year.

The reason Tennessee went 11-5 this year was because of their offense which can put up a lot of points. Not only can they smash opposing defenses with Henry in the running game, but they also have a reliable passing attack as well.

The Titans finished the regular season 4th in scoring at 30.7ppg and 2nd in rushing at 168.1ypg.

If Tennessee was playing any other Wild Card team besides Baltimore then I think they would advance. Unfortunately, the Ravens will beat the Titans at their own style of physical football.

Indianapolis Colts (+1800)

Like the Titans, the Colts got into the Playoffs on the last weekend of the season. They finished 11-5 and captured the 7th seed after beating the Jaguars and watching the Miami Dolphins lose to Buffalo. Unfortunately for the Colts, they have to play the Bills who are the hottest team in the league right now.

With that said, Indy does have a fighting chance against Buffalo whereas other teams don’t. The Colts have a solid defense, a strong running game, and a veteran QB who’s been in Playoff battles before. Those are ingredients that Playoff teams look for.

The @Colts are the final team to punch a spot in the AFC playoffs 👏 Indy will enter as the No. 7 seed! pic.twitter.com/de2ayg4nu8

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 4, 2021

Let’s start with the running game. Indy’s rookie RB Jonathan Taylor put up 253 rushing yards in the final game of the season to finish 3rd in the NFL with 1,169 yards. Buffalo has struggled with the run at times this season. This could be where the Colts find success in the Wild Card round.

Defensively, the Colts finished 2nd against the run at 90.5ypg, 8th in total defense at 332.1ypg, and 10th in scoring at 22.6ppg. They have a solid defense at all three levels and will match up well with the Bills.

Yet, the Indianapolis Colts do have a few weaknesses that will get exposed in the Bills game.

The first is QB Philip Rivers. He finished 10th in the NFL with 4,169 yards, but he did have 11 INTs to 24 TDs. He seemed to have stretches that left critics scratching their heads. But, it’s his lack of mobility that will be the offense’s doom. We saw what the Bills did to an immobile Ben Roethlisberger.

Although Indy has a good defense, they are 20th against the pass as they allow 241.6ypg. They will face one of the best passing attacks in the NFL with the red hot duo of Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs.

If the Colts faced the Steelers or Titans, they would’ve had a solid shot at winning the Wild Card game. Unfortunately, they will lose to the Bills in a competitive matchup.

Cleveland Browns (+2200)

It’s a bit surprising that the Cleveland Browns are the biggest longshot to win the AFC. Now, I don’t expect them to, but they should have better odds than the Colts who face the toughest team in the Wild Card round in either conference.

The Browns get a trilogy matchup against the Steelers and do have some confidence as they just beat them in Week 17. Additionally, the Steelers have the most concerns on offense out of all the AFC teams.

I think the Browns have a shot at beating Pittsburgh in the 1st round. The Steelers offense hasn’t looked good in six games other than one half against the Colts.

That bodes well for the Browns who have a middle of the pack defense and a porous secondary that’s 22nd in the league allowing 247.6ypg and 21st in scoring at 26.2ppg.

Cleveland’s offense relies on a two headed rushing attack with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. QB Baker Mayfield has been more consistent down the stretch and this team has played solid football.

I like their chances better than the Colts or the Titans in the Wild Card round of the AFC.

Who Wins the AFC This Postseason?

Of the teams that have any hope of beating the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens.

Here is a look at the playoff standings if they started today.

AFC Playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Buffalo Bills

3. Pittsburgh Steelers

4. Tennessee Titans

5. Miami Dolphins

6. Baltimore Ravens

7. Cleveland Browns pic.twitter.com/MfgKUZzDEa

— #RingerNFL (@ringernfl) January 3, 2021

The Ravens are physical enough on both sides of the ball to give the Chiefs troubles, while also controlling the clock. The Bills can score with the Chiefs and could have the better defense also.

Yet, when it’s all said and done, you have to go with the Chiefs to win the AFC. It pains me to say that considering I’m a Bills fan, but until someone beats the Chiefs, you have to go with them.

It also makes it more appealing to go with KC as their odds are just +100, which is even money. If you are looking to go against the grain then take the Bills.