ATP 2020 US Open Betting Preview: Can Anyone Upset Novak Djokovic?

The 2020 Men’s US Open gets underway on Monday, August 31^st, but it will sorely miss some of the sport’s biggest stars like Roger Federer who is injured and the 2019 US Open winner Rafael Nadal who opted out due to covid.

Yet, there are still enough big names entered that will make this an exciting Grand Slam tournament. The sport’s best player Novak Djokovic will be in action as he seeks his 18^th Grand Slam title. Standing in his way are rising stars Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Tennis betting sites have released their odds for this Grand Slam event. Let’s take a look at the latest betting odds and prop bets, identify potential value, and serve an ace with our predictions.

PSA: The draw is here. pic.twitter.com/ZGQ27qzv6S

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2020

US Open Betting Odds

The following betting odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

• Novak Djokovic (-150)
• Dominic Thiem (+500)
• Daniil Medvedev (+550)
• Stefanos Tsitsipas (+600 )
• Alexander Zverev (+1400)
• Milos Raonic (+2000)
• Andrey Rublev (+2500)
• Matteo Berrettini (+2500)
• Roberto Bautista-Agut (+2500)
• Andy Murray (+3300)
• Denis Shapovalov (+3300)
• Felix Auger-Aliassime (+3300)
• Karen Khachanov (+3300)
• Alex De Minaur (+4000)
• Kevin Anderson(+4000)
• Marin Cilic (+4000)
• David Goffin (+5000)
• Grigor Dimitrov(+5000)
• John Isner (+5000)
• Borna Coric (+6600)
• Reilly Opelka (+8000)
• Kyle Edmund (+10000)

1^st Quarter Betting Preview and Winner

The top Quarter of the Draw is all about Novak Djokovic.

#1 Novak Djokovic

• US Open Odds (-150)
• Quarter Odds (-325)

Djokovic is the men’s #1 ranked player in the world and enters the US Open as the clear betting favorite. It’s hard to argue against Djokovic winning the Grand Slam as he’s one of the best hard court surface players in the world and has the 3^rd most Grand Slam wins in the history of men’s tennis.

Prior to the shutdown, Djokovic won at Dubai in February and captured the 2020 Australian Open in January. Both were hard court surfaces.

A powerful forehand to end it.@DjokerNole is 21-0 in 2020 😳

(via @TennisTV)pic.twitter.com/M9IDNQTAlh

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 26, 2020

Last year, Djokovic won the Australian Open and Wimbledon, but was taken out in the 4^th round of the US Open. He aims to better that mark and close the distance on both Nadal and Federer for most Grand Slam championships of all-time.

In 14 US Open appearances, Djokovic has made it to the Finals eight times with three victories. He’s posted a 72-11 career record in the US Open and last won the Grand Slam in 2018.

This Quarter will be dominated by Djokovic as there is nobody that realistically has a shot at beating him.

2^nd Quarter Betting Preview and Winner

The second Quarter will have more excitement in the Top Half of the Draw as the #6 ranked Stefanos Tsitsipas and #7 ranked Alexander Zverev are in this section.

#6 Stefanos Tsitsipas

• US Open Odds (+600)
• Quarter Odds (+100)

The 22 year old Greek tennis player is becoming one of the top young stars of the sport. He’s had a solid 2020 season so far with a win at Marseille and losing to Djokovic in the Finals of Dubai.

Tsitsipas is looking to make a run in the US Open as he was bounced out of the tournament in the 1^st round last year. In two appearances, he’s never made it past the 2^nd round and has a 1-2 record.

Yet, Tsitsipas has a favorable draw in this Quarter as the only real contender is Alexander Zverev which wouldn’t be until the Quarterfinals.

#7 Alexander Zverev

• US Open Odds (+1400)
• Quarter Odds (+350)

The 23 year old German is ranked 7^th in the world and is the 5^th seed in the US Open. His best performance in 2020 so far was a Semifinal appearance in the Australian Open.

The US Open hasn’t been kind to Zverev in the past as he’s never made it past the 4^th round. His career record is 7-5 in this Grand Slam. Making things even more alarming for the German is that he’s better on other surfaces than hard courts and he has a tough opening round against Kevin Anderson.

I think Zverev will be lucky to get to the Quarterfinals where he can take on Tsitsipas. More than likely, he’s going to get bounced before then.

Who Wins the 2^nd Quarter?

Stefanos Tsitsipas is positioned nicely to come away with the Quarter and make it to the Semifinals. His toughest challenger would be Zverev, but I don’t even see Alexander making it that far.

Even if they do meet in the Quarterfinals, Tsitsipas holds a 5-1 head to head record against Zverev as Stefanos has won five straight matches against him.

At +100 odds, Tsitsipas still offers value in what should be a cakewalk to the Quarterfinals and then a showdown with Novak Djokovic in the Semifinals.

3^rd Quarter Betting Preview and Winner

The Bottom Half of the Draw is much tougher than the Top Half. And, that difficulty starts with the 3^rd Quarter where we have numerous players ranked in the Top 15 in the world including last year’s runner-up.

#5 Daniil Medvedev

• US Open Odds (+550)
• Quarter Odds (+100)

The 5^th ranked Daniil Medvedev was the runner up in last year’s US Open, which was his best Grand Slam performance to date. Unfortunately, he didn’t follow that up with a successful performance in the Australian Open this year as the 24 year old Russian star lost in the 4^th round.

Following the Australian Open, he suffered losses in the Round of 32 at Rotterdam and the Quarterfinals of Marseille. With that said, Medvedev’s best surface is the hard court where he’s won seven tournaments in his career.

Prior to last year’s deep run in the US Open, Medvedev hadn’t made it past the 3^rd round in his two previous US Open appearances.

This year, Medvedev has a clear path to the Quarterfinals as his only real threat would be Grigor Dimitrov who made it to the Semifinals last year in the US Open and lost to Daniil in three straight sets. Medvedev is 2-0 against Dimitrov on the hard courts.

#14 Andrey Rublev

• US Open Odds (+2500)
• Quarter Odds (+500)

Rublev is ranked 14^th in the world and is in the top section of the 3^rd Quarter where he should be able to make it all the way to the 4^th round. That would match his performance from last year when he lost in the 4^th round to Matteo Berrettini.

Unfortunately, the same fate awaits him this year as Rublev will most likely face Berrettini in the 4^th round this year as well.

In his career, Rublev has been bounced out of the US Open twice in the 1^st round. His best performance for this Grand Slam came in 2017 when he made it to the Quarterfinals. Andrey is 7-4 at the US Open all-time.

#8 Matteo Berrettini

• US Open Odds (+2500)
  
  
  Quarter Odds (+550)

Surprisingly, Rublev has better odds to win this Quarter than Berrettini despite the Italian beating Rublev last year in this tournament and making it all the way to the Semifinals. That was a vast improvement over his 1^st round departure in 2018, which was his US Open debut.

Berrettini didn’t perform well in the Australian Open this year where he was knocked out in the 2^nd round. However, many pundits feel that he will bounce back in the US Open.

Looking at his path, Berettini has an easy route to the 4^th round where he will beat Rublev and then put himself into the Quarterfinals where he faces Medvedev.

Who Comes out of the 3^rd Quarter?

This Quarter comes down to the 5^th ranked Daniil Medvedev and the 8^th ranked Matteo Berrettini. The two have only played against each other one time before and Medvedev won that match in 2018 at Indian Wells.

If this was another surface, I would say the hard hitting Berrettini has a chance at the upset. But, on the hard courts, Medvedev is the better player. I expect this to be a fun match, but Daniil Medvedev should win and make a return trip to the Semifinals.

4^th Quarter Betting Preview and Winner

By all accounts, the 4^th Quarter is the hardest in the Men’s Draw. It features Dominic Thiem, Andy Murray, Khachanov, Felix Auger-Aliassime, Marin Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut and Milos Raonic. The following three players are the odds on favorites at online sports betting sites to win this Quarter:

#3 Dominic Thiem

• US Open Odds (+500)
• Quarter Odds (+160)

This might be the “Quarter of Death,” but Thiem has a nice path to the 4^th round with only Marin Cilic in his way. With that said, I don’t expect Cilic to be more than a speedbump for Thiem.

Prior to the shutdown, Thiem made it to the Quarterfinals of Rio de Janeiro and the Finals at the Australian Open where he lost to Djokovic. The world’s #3 ranked player is positioned nicely for the first half of his Quarter.

Where there could be some a greater challenge would be in the 4^th Round if Agur-Aliassime makes it that far and the Quarterfinal, which could be a matchup against Raonic, Agut or Khachhanov.

For his career, Thiem has never made it past the Quarterfinals in the US Open. He was bounced out of this Grand Slam in the 1^st round last year.

So, it’s no guarantee that the 2^nd seeded Thiem will even make it out of this Quarter.

#30 Milos Raonic

• US Open Odds (+2000)
• Quarter Odds (+450)

Like with Thiem, Raonic has struggled in the US Open. He’s better on grass than this hard surface. Raonic has never made it past the 4^th round of the US Open, has a 15-7 record and missed last year’s tournament due to an injury.

In 2020, Raonic appears to be back on track and in good form. He did make it to the Quarterfinals of the Australian Open. He also made it to the Semifinals at Delray Beach and has showed up looking great at the Western & Southern Open where he’s in the Finals as of this writing.

Although he’s not as proficient on the hard court as others in this Quarter, Raonic can’t be overlooked now that he’s back to full health.

#12 Roberto Bautista Agut

• US Open Odds (+2500)
• Quarter Odds (+700)

Agut is the 3^rd betting favorite for this Quarter, but has not had a strong 2020 season so far. He was bounced by the Round of 32 in the Australian Open, Rotterdam and Dubai. This is concerning considering they were all hard court surfaces.

At the US Open, Agut has never made it past the 4^th round. In fact, he’s been bounced out of the tournament in the 1^st round the last two years and has an overall record of 11-7 in this Grand Slam.

Who Survives the 4^th Quarter?

It’s clear that this Quarter is going to be a war of attrition and it will come down to whichever player can survive the tough draw.

With that in mind, I don’t have confidence in Thiem to make it out of this Quarter. I think he’s overvalued for this tournament.

I think this Quarter is going to have a surprise like Milos Raonic, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or Karen Khachanov. Basically, your guess is as good as mine when it comes to this Quarter. I would love it if Andy Murray could find a way to win it.

Oh 🇨🇦! 👀@milosraonic upsets Stefanos Tsitipas 7-6, 6-3, and rolls into the final @CincyTennis 🚀 pic.twitter.com/IgHDmmW6Kg

— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 28, 2020

Raonic and Agut will most likely play each other and I think Raonic wins that one. But, then he will take on Khachanov in the 4^th round if all goes as planned. Basically, only one of those three contenders can make it to the Quarterfinals where they may or may not face Thiem.

I’m going to take Raonic to win this Quarter. He’s had more success in previous Grand Slams than any other contender in this Quarter. He offers value at +450 odds.

ATP US Open Semifinals Matchups

My predicted Semifinal matchups are Milos Raonic vs Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Top Half Semifinal: Novak Djokovic vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

The Top Half of the Draw should be Djokovic taking on Tsitsipas as both men have easy paths to the Semifinals. Djokovic can get to this point of the tournament in his sleep, while Tsitsipas might have one challenge along the way.

Djokovic holds the advantage in head to head meetings with a record of 3 to 2. Novak has won the last two meetings including the Finals of Dubai this year where he beat Tsitsipas in two sets.

It will be tough, but Djokovic should be able to get past Tsitsipas in this entertaining Semifinals matchup.

Bottom Half Semifinal: Milos Raonic vs Daniil Medvedev

I believe Medvedev is a lock to make it to the Semifinals in the bottom half of the Draw. As for Raonic, I would remind you that a handful of players are legit contenders to the 4^th Quarter of the Draw.

As for this matchup, Medvedev has defeated Raonic in both of their head to head matchups, which both came on hard court surfaces. I expect him to do it again.

Who Will Win the 2020 Men’s US Open?

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev is my prediction for the US Open men’s Finals match.

These two have played against each other six times and Djokovic has the 4-2 advantage. They’ve played in one Grand Slam before and Djokovic won that 2019 Australian Open matchup.

The two faced off this year in the ATP Cup and Djokovic won that Semifinals matchup in three sets.

Medvedev’s time will come, but this year’s US Open is all about Novak Djokovic chasing after his 18^th Grand Slam title. And, I believe he will get it.

To answer the question that I posed in the title of this article, nobody is going to upset Djokovic in the 140^th edition of the US Open.

As of now, Djokovic is undefeated in 2020 and should win the Western & Southern Open this weekend following the publication of this article.