Betting on the Best: Who Will Go #1 in the NFL Draft?

The 2021 NFL Draft has a clear frontrunner for the #1 overall selection. It’s so lopsided that it’s almost a moot point to even have the conversation.

Personally, I love an upset. There’s absolutely no telling what’s going on in the minds of NFL GMs.

So, when it comes to betting on the best, who will go #1 in the NFL Draft? Keep reading below as I discuss the NFL Draft’s contenders.

The Draft Landscape

It would seem that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence has been the favorite to go first in the draft since he led his Clemson Tigers to a National Championship as a freshman.

He repeated the feat as a sophomore, and this all but solidified him as a future first pick.

Now, after his third season with Clemson and falling short of the three-peat, Lawrence is ready to terrorize NFL defenses on Sundays.

Lawrence is a clear favorite, and a quarterback has gone as the top pick in five of the past six drafts. But Lawrence isn’t alone at the top; Ohio State QB Justin Fields sits in the second slot.

That means Fields is an interview away from wedging himself ahead of Lawrence and going first.

Teams at the Top in Need of Help

The Jacksonville Jaguars hold the #1 pick. After a full season of watching QB Gardner Minshew struggle to throw the football over 50 feet with any degree of accuracy, they’re drooling at the prospect of snagging Trevor Lawrence.

Lawrence is a total package QB with size, mobility, a cannon, and a great decision-maker. The Jaguars, no doubt, are hoping that he can get them over the hurdle and deep into the playoffs, possibly a Super Bowl run.

The New York Jets gift wrapped and nicely presented the first pick to Jacksonville by winning games against better teams the final two weeks of the season.

This misstep may cost the franchise but, it may not. The Jets have a serviceable quarterback in Sam Darnold. Still, Darnold has given little indication to this point that he’s a franchise QB that can take a team to the promised land.

If they do decide to select a QB, Lawrence will likely be long gone. Still, Justin Fields from Ohio State is a fantastic choice.

The Jets have the luxury of knowing that one of these options will be available in the number two spot. The Dolphins have pick number three overall. Though the team has questions at QB, I believe Heisman winner DeVonta Smith will be catching passes in Miami next year.

The Contenders

Over the last quarter of a century, a quarterback or lineman has gone first in every draft. The trend looks like it will continue with the top three betting favorites falling into this category.

Trevor Lawrence is nearly a shoo-in, and Las Vegas has the young star at -2000.

Justin Fields is the closest competitor at +700. So, you can find some value here if Lawrence’s stock begins to fall for some reason.

Penei Sewell, the OT from Oregon, is the most favored non-quarterback and third overall at +2000. Many people had Sewell going third to Miami, but I don’t see how they pass on Smith from Alabama.

Unless a massive trade involving the top two teams rocks the NFL Draft landscape, I don’t see a scenario where Lawrence and Fields don’t go 1 and 2.

Still, this is a strong draft class, and NFL decision-makers can be wildly unpredictable. Let’s examine some of the players that may quickly go #1 for you to bet on for the 2021 NFL draft.

Justin Fields

Justin Fields definitely made an impression over the past two seasons. After his freshman season at Georgia, he transferred and made an immediate impact.

He was a Heisman Trophy finalist in 2019 and carried his team to the 2021 CFP National Championship. Fields will likely make a smooth transition into the NFL game.

I see him dropping to the Jets at number two, but that’s excellent news for New York. After Dwayne Haskins was benched and later cut by Washington, it will be interesting to see if that affects how Ohio State quarterbacks are evaluated going forward.

Penei Sewell

Offensive tackle Penei Sewell from Oregon is a betting favorite for many. The most exciting thing about the player expected to go in the top five is that he didn’t play a single down of the 2020 season.

Sewell sat out due to health concerns, and though he may slip from #3 to #5, the decision had little impact on his draft stock.

Sewell is the highest rated prospect, not a quarterback for this year’s draft, and any team that isn’t needing a quarterback will take a close look Sewell’s way.

Zach Wilson

Zach Wilson put on a show for BYU this year. Wilson completed nearly 75% of his passing attempts and carried BYU to a fantastic season.

Wilson finished the season with 21 TDs and only 2 interceptions last season. BYU was in full attack mode as they blew UCF out of the Boca Raton Bowl water.

Wilson has all of the characteristics of an NFL quarterback, and falling to the Falcons at number four could be a tremendous advantage in the future.

The Falcons have shown what they can do with an accurate passer. With Matt Ryan’s career-ending, Wilson could easily step into the role.

I would expect that Wilson could get Atlanta back to the playoffs within two seasons.

Trey Lance

Lance sits at +5000 to go first in the draft. However, the NDSU passer is sure to land with a team and transition into a starting role within a few years.

Lance is my pick to surprise many of the pundits and wiggle his way into the top 5 picks.

Trey won a National Championship while at North Dakota State. He reminds me of a young quarterback drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs a few years back.

Patrick Mahomes burst into the NFL and won a Super Bowl almost immediately. Unfortunately, Lance will not have Andy Reid in his corner.

Still, for teams that want to take a shot on an explosive player with a proven record of winning, Trey Lance fits the bill.

Mac Jones

Alabama QB Mac Jones is a +10000 longshot to go first overall. That’s a pretty strong showing for a player that wasn’t even first on his team’s depth chart when training camp began.

Jones took the Alabama Crimson Tide all the way to a National Championship game where they decimated Justin Fields and Ohio State.

Jones had many tools at his disposal, and his future as an NFL starter remains murky. Still, there’s no question that an NFL team will give him a shot at the next level.

It’s not going to be the number one pick, though. 

DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith has gone from being the third receiver at Alabama to likely the third pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. When receivers ahead of him were sidelined due to injury, Smith stepped up and went on to win the Heisman Trophy.

Smith has an outside shot of being the first receiver selected in over 24 years. He has the skillset of a number one draft pick.

Unfortunately, if the Jaguars picked him at number one, he wouldn’t have anyone to get the ball to him.

Miami is the first team in the draft that may have a legitimate QB option. Of course, if the Jets acquire Deshaun Watson in a trade, you could see a massive shakeup near the top.

The standout performance in the National Championship game likely edged Smith ahead of Sewell. Still, it all depends on a team’s needs.

Trevor Lawrence: Your #1 Overall Pick in the 2021 NFL Draft

I present your #1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has demonstrated again and again his confidence and ability.

It’s also widely considered that Lawrence is of an upstanding moral character. That won’t necessarily win any football games, but it’s vital for the face of your franchise.

No NFL front office wants to deal with the mess created by Michael Vick or the current display Deshaun Watson is making in Houston.

Short of Lawrence inexplicably losing his mind on social media or injuring himself walking the dog, and he will be the #1 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft.

I can’t see much value at -2000, so maybe start looking for a deal in the 2022 draft. Kedon Slovis from USC and Sam Howell at UNC look like early favorites in a weak QB draft.

Conclusion

Whenever Lawrence came out, he was going to go first. He has waited to this point before entering the draft, which shows his maturity and desire to succeed at the NFL level.

Betting on Lawrence means betting on the best. Regarding who will go #1 in the NFL draft, Trevor Lawrence is a lock.

I hope he enjoys the same success at the NFL level as he did in college.