Boosted Odds Props From BetOnline.ag for October 3rd

Saturday’s sports schedule brings plenty of soccer action, with a full slate of the English Premier League, MLS, Bundesliga, La Liga, and Serie A. We will also have yet another UFC event with UFC on ESPN 16, featuring the main event of Holly Holm vs. Irene Aldana. A boatload of college football games will also populate the slate, as usual.

Without further ado, let’s jump right into BetOnline’s odds booster options for Saturday’s sports calendar.

Premier League: Chelsea, Everton, and Manchester City ALL To Win (+330)

Manchester City are coming off of an embarrassing 5-2 defeat at home against Leicester City last weekend. Leicester are no joke, but City are odds on favorites to win the Premier League this season. Getting blown out on their own turf by the Foxes wasn’t the result Pep Guardiola had in mind.

City will have the chance to get back into the win column on Saturday when they face Leeds United at Elland Road. City are heavy -263 moneyline favorites against the newly-promoted side, but Leeds aren’t your typical Premier League also-ran. Marcelo Bielsa’s side are coming off back-to-back league wins over Fulham and Sheffield United, while they nearly dethroned the champions, Liverpool, with a 4-3 defeat at Anfield in matchweek 1.

There are as many Leeds players as Barcelona players in the Spain squad. And as many Leeds players as Real Madrid players in the Germany squad.

— Richard Jolly (@RichJolly) October 2, 2020

Everton, meanwhile, will look to stay perfect at home on Saturday against Brighton. Everton have picked up three wins in three attempts over Tottenham, West Brom, and Crystal Palace, and they have looked convincing in the process. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been scoring goals with reckless abandon, with a league-leading five tallies already this term.

Everton are listed at -125 to win on the moneyline over the Seagulls, who are just 1-0-2 to this point. Brighton have been beaten by Chelsea and Manchester United alongside a win over a hapless Newcastle side.

Chelsea have gotten off to a worse than expected start after spending more money than any other Premier League club during the summer. The Blues were held to a 3-3 draw last week against West Brom, which was actually a good result considering they fell into an early 3-0 hole. The talent-laden Blues are heavy -230 favorites at home on Saturday against Crystal Palace, who have already slain one “big six” club this season. Palace throttled Manchester United back in matchweek 2.

UFC: De Castro To Win Round 1 (+250)

Yorgan De Castro is a sizable -225 moneyline favorite in his heavyweight bout on Saturday night against Carlos Felipe. De Castro has a record of 6-1-0 in his UFC career, but he took his first defeat in his most recent match against former NFLer Greg Hardy back in May. It was a unanimous decision, but De Castro’s bout against Felipe still gets co-top billing at tonight’s event.

Felipe has an 8-1 record as a pro, but his lone defeat happened to come in his first UFC fight. That happened in July, when he lost by decision to Sergey Spivak. De Castro has already said that he is optimistic that the fight will be over quickly, and the odds reflect just that. This fight has an over/under of 1.5 rounds. With that low total and De Castro a heavy favorite to win the fight, he certainly makes for an intriguing bet to take round 1 at +250.

UFC: Holly Holm By Points (+175)

The other main event for UFC on ESPN 16 features Holly Holm going up against Irene Aldana. Holm is the favorite here, but not by much. She’s at -116 on the moneyline at BetOnline, while Aldana currently checks in at -104.

Aldana is 5-1 in her last six fights after beginning her career with back-to-back defeats. She lost via split decision to Raquel Pennington last summer, but she has otherwise been perfect for quite some time now. This will be her first outing since December of last year, though, when she knocked out Ketlen Vieira in the first round.

A title shot could be on the horizon for the winner of tomorrow night’s main event 🏆

Holly Holm 𝕍 Irene Aldana is gonna be fun 🔥 #UFCFightIsland pic.twitter.com/nvLtKhLEV2

— UFC on BT Sport (@btsportufc) October 2, 2020

Holm was beaten via first-round TKO by Amanda Nunes in her bantamweight title bout last summer, before coming back to beat Pennington via decision in January. Eight of Holm’s career wins have come via TKO or knockout, and she has a record of 5-3 in fights that go the distance.

We’ve got an over/under of 4.5 rounds here, so oddsmakers are thinking this bout has a good shot at going the distance. For this bet to cash, you need it to go all five rounds with Holm winning via decision. BetOnline gives the fight -240 odds of going the distance, while Holm is at +150 to win via points.

UFC: Holm, De Randamie, and De Castro ALL To Win (+450)

In addition to our co-main events, we also have an undercard fight pitting Germaine De Randamie against Julianna Pena. De Randamie checks in at -150 to win on the moneyline with an over/under of 2.5 rounds.

De Randamie has a 9-4 record as a pro, with her most recent fight ending in a defeat at the hands of Nunes last December. She had won five straight fights before that, including an impressive victory over Holm at UFC 208 back in 2017.

Pena is 9-3 overall, with five wins in her last six bouts. She took a win via decision over Nicco Montano in July of last year in her most recent fight. De Randamie is currently the top-ranked women’s bantamweight in the world, while Pena is No. 4.

What’s The Best Bet?

The Premier League is the most competitive among the top-ranked pro soccer leagues in Europe. While the cream does typically rise to the top over the course of a full season, the campaign is typically riddled with unexpected twists. Just look at City’s loss to Leicester last week. Nobody saw that coming. Nobody saw Chelsea drawing West Brom, either.

Betting on Everton, Chelsea, and City all to win at +330 does have upside, though, and all three teams are minus-money favorites to come away with victories.

The favorites should win these matches, which makes this one an interesting value given those odds.

My least-favorite option above is Holm to win by points at +175. I’m not too bullish on Holm’s chances of winning the fight in the first place, so betting on her specific method of victory feels a bit risky. We’ve got other legitimately good options on this slate, so I’ll pass on Holm winning via points today. Because I’m skeptical that she’ll win, we can also scratch off the three-way result with Holm, De Castro, and De Randamie all to win at +450.

De Castro to win the first round of his fight against Felipe looks like an excellent value at +250, especially given De Castro’s favorable odds to win this one. This is the “safe” betting option at +250, while the three-way Premier League result offers more risk and upside at +330.