Break Even Points for Online Casino Jackpots

Many gamblers wonder how they can gain an edge in casino games. The house holds an advantage in nearly every situation, which doesn’t leave much room for players to thrive.

But you can swing the odds in your favor with progressive table games and video poker. You simply need to play games that have passed their jackpot break-even point.

The latter refers to the point when a game’s progressive jackpot has grown so much that it’s now offering over 100% return to player (RTP).

This guide covers different ways in which you can determine the break-even (BRE) point. It also discusses the advantages to playing when you’ve surpassed this mark.

How Is It Possible to Determine Break Even Points?

Table games and video poker offer fixed odds of receiving each hand. For example, you stand 1 in 649,740 odds of being a dealt a royal flush in Caribbean stud or Jacks or Better video poker.

A non-jackpot game doesn’t give you an opportunity to break even—unless the casino somehow makes a mathematical mistake. But a game that features a progressive jackpot does provide this opportunity.

The progressive jackpot grows a little with each side wager (usually $1 in most games). When the jackpot reaches a certain point, it theoretically offers positive expected value (+EV).

“Theoretical” is the key word here. You actually need to win the jackpot someday to benefit from +EV. But at a specific point, you’ll theoretically break even or even profit with your side wagers.

The BRE mark varies based on the game and its rules. Poker variations give you the same odds of getting hands.

But poker games can also feature differing rules. Caribbean stud, for example, doesn’t give you a chance to improve upon your holdings.

However, video poker does include a drawing round where you draw for cards and improve your hand. You have different chances of getting a royal flush in Caribbean stud and video poker as a result.

You also need to account for every side payout when calculating BRE points.

Here are common payouts for the Caribbean Stud side wager:

• Royal flush (1 in 649,740 odds) = 100% of jackpot
• Straight flush (1 in 72,201) = 10% or jackpot (or $5,000)
• Four of a kind (1 in 4,166) = $100
• Full house (1 in 694) = $75
• Flush (1 in 509) = $50

When figuring out a break-even mark, you don’t just look at the jackpot. You’re instead trying to determine the BRE point on the odds involved with all payouts.

Best Ways to Figure Out BRE Points

In past decades, gamblers who wanted to find profitable points for progressive jackpot games had to put in serious work. They’d need to run calculations on all payouts involved along with the odds on each hand.

Luckily, you don’t need to do extensive math yourself to find BRE marks today. Instead, you can use jackpot tracking websites and calculators.

A jackpot calculator gives you the advantage of manually inputting payouts. After all, some casinos offer different payouts for each hand.

Here’s an example using variables that I input into a Caribbean stud jackpot calculator:

• Jackpot = $230,000
• Royal flush = $23,000 (10%)
• Four of a kind = $250
• Full House = $100
• Flush = $50
• BRE point on side bet = $238,573

You need the jackpot to grow by $8,573 before playing at a break-even rate. Of course, you can always change the payouts when you find a different pay schedule at another casino.

Remember, though, that such calculators only determine RTP on the jackpot bet. They don’t factor in the base game RTP (i.e. Caribbean stud features a 5.22% house edge).

Jackpot tracking websites offer BRE marks for popular online casino games. They do the work of determining the overall break-even point (base game + side bet included) for you.

Here are BRE points for some of the most-popular online table games:

• Caribbean stud (RTG) = $201,245
• Poker Ride (Microgaming) = $218,047
• Progressive Jacks or Better (Gamesys) = £17,477
• Jackpot Deuces (Microgaming) = $53,982
• Progressive Blackjack (WGS) = $285,951
• Let’em Ride (RTG) = $201,245
• Progressive Baccarat (Playtech) = $537,032
• Roulette Royale (Microgaming) = $760,501
• Caribbean Stud (NetEnt) = €368,575

Jackpot tracking sites do the work for you in determining break-even and profitable points. Therefore, you can quickly reference when a jackpot bet is offering +EV at any point in time.

Why Can’t You Figure Out Slots Break Even Points?

As you’ll notice, I’ve made no mention regarding slots break-even points. The reason why is because you don’t have all of the necessary information to determine BRE marks for slots.

Again, you have the odds for all of the hands occurring in a video poker or table game. But operators don’t give you the odds for each slots payout.

Maybe you’ll find the chances of winning a particular game’s progressive jackpot or maximum bonus payout in the info screen. However, you won’t find such odds regarding standard payouts.

This lack of information prevents you from accurately determining the break-even point for an online slot. You may have the base RTP, but you won’t understand how the growing jackpot affects payback.

Here’s an example to explain this conundrum:

• A slot offers 96% base RTP.
• The operator seeds the starting jackpot at $500,000.
• The jackpot grows to $4 million.
• Given the lack of payout odds, you have no idea how this $4m jackpot affects RTP.

The only thing you know for certain is that the $4 million prize has indeed increased the theoretical value. But without info on the other payouts, you just can’t determine a break-even point.

The operator could do so, because they have the relevant information. However, I’ve never seen a slots developer provide all payout odds for any game.

What’s the Value of Determining Break Even Points?

Most progressive casino games offer really poor RTP after the jackpot is initially seeded. Caribbean stud, for example, may only feature between 20% and 40% RTP on the side bet.

Casinos don’t offer a lot of seed money relative to what they’re raking in. For example, they might fund a jackpot at $10,000 in the beginning.

$10k sounds like plenty when the side wager is only a dollar. However, the house usually keeps around $0.30 out of every $1 side bet.

You certainly don’t want to play when the theoretical value on each wager is so low. If you’re going to play for a progressive jackpot, you might as well do so when you’re getting the absolute most value.

Break-even marks help you figure out when you’ll enjoy great value from side bets. You may even be able to jump in at a point when you’re even getting +EV.

Of course, any advantage you receive doesn’t come from the casinos. They only seed the jackpot and then collect profits from both base-game and side bets.

Instead, the increased value comes from other gamblers. Players drive up the jackpot and boost a game’s RTP.

Regardless of where the benefit comes from, you should strongly consider playing at break-even points and beyond.

Will You Win Serious Profits From Games Offering Over 100% RTP?

It’s always smart to play casino games when you hold the advantage. But exactly how big of an edge can you expect to gain?

I’ve seen situations where table games offer 115% RTP or more thanks to their big jackpots. You’d theoretically earn $0.15 on every bet in this situation.

The problem, though, is that these profits are extremely theoretical. You must win the jackpot at some point to realize your advantage—or at least go on a hot streak with base-game payouts.

Even with the highly theoretical profits, you do benefit in some way by knowing BRE marks. If you’re going to chase jackpots, you’re better off doing it when you have a chance to:

1. Win a bigger jackpot.
2. Enjoy higher theoretical RTP.

Plus, you’ll have a stronger opportunity to win the jackpot and profit from an edge by playing more hands. You definitely want to seek out BRE and +EV points as a high-volume gambler.

Conclusion

Progressive casino games present one of the rare opportunities where you can gain an edge through gambling. However, you must know a game’s break-even point before you can take advantage of such situations.

Jackpot tracking websites and jackpot calculators are handy tools in determining BRE marks. The former is especially good, because it calculates RTP on the base game and side bet.

You can use these tools to figure out exactly when you should jump in and begin playing for a jackpot. With enough dedication and a large bankroll, you might eventually win big and realize your profits.