Do You Think the New Orleans Saints Will March Into an NFC Championship?

The New Orleans Saints hold favorable 4/1 odds to win the NFC Championship as they head into the 2020 NFL season loaded with one of the best offenses in the league.

Drew Brees returns for a 20th season, and he leads a horde of pass catchers to fit his team’s pass-friendly offensive unit. The Saints are an older team, so expect a sense of urgency in play for a team that finished 37-11 in the regular season and has seen some awful luck over the past three seasons in the playoffs.

They boast one of the league’s best pass rushes and an under-the-radar defense, along with a depth chart that’s deeper than perhaps each of the league’s most talented teams.

Here are four factors you need to pay attention to before betting on the Saints to make the run in 2020.

1 – The NFL’s Most Prolific Offense

First off, the Saints own perhaps the NFL’s most prolific offense in football. They have a lifer in Drew Brees, who even at 41 still boasts among the league’s highest completion percentages and lowest interception percentages.

The future Hall of Famer remains atop his game. He has an arsenal to throw the ball to and an offensive line that continues to keep his uniform clean.

Leading the backfield is Alvin Kamara, a versatile dual-threat back who burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2017 and has never looked back. He averaged 4.7 yards per carry in 2019 and logged 81 receptions, making him a perfect check down if things fall apart.

Brees has the benefit of throwing to the best receiver in the league in Michael Thomas, who set an NFL record in 2019 with 149 receptions along with 1,725 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. Thomas enters his fifth season and the prime of his career.

Jared Cook is an older player, but a proven deep threat. He only caught 43 passes in 2019 but averaged 16.4 yards per catch and just under a quarter of his catches went for touchdowns. Emmanuel Sanders is also an older player, but he continues to shine in the NFL with his 66-catch performance in 2019. He’ll line up opposite of Thomas.

The Saints are also deep here with Latavius Murray as the RB2, Josh Hill as a viable TE2, and Taysom Hill as the NFL’s most dangerous utility player.

If Brees goes down, the team can still turn to Jameis Winston, whose turnover proneness will probably fade in 2020 if called upon since he’s spending time as Brees’ understudy in New Orleans, perhaps the league’s best mentor in teaching him how to correct his mistakes.

With this offense and a line who only allowed 25 sacks in 2019 while blocking for two quarterbacks, it will catapult the Saints to at least a wildcard berth if not an NFC South Championship and the conference’s top seed.

Giving the popular Super Bowl betting pick a chance to win the franchise’s second NFC Championship.

2 – Age on All Sides of the Ball

This one’s a double-edged sword for the Saints. Sure, age lives all over the field on offense and defense. Brees is the oldest at 41. Murray’s older in running back years. Sanders and Cook are entering their 11th and 12th seasons. And Cameron Jordan is an elder statesman on defense.

Also on the defensive side of the ball, the Saints have NFL lifers in Kiko Alonso and Demario Davis, who are in their eighth and ninth seasons. Corner Janoris Jenkins enters his ninth season. Malcolm Jenkins enters his 12th, and Patrick Robinson enters his 11th.

One clear upside here is experience, and another is a sense of urgency. For an older, experienced team like the Saints, a minimal offseason and lack of preseason helps keep this team ready for game day. Given their roster continuity and age, they are one team this season may have helped.

But the downer remains because none of these players are who they used to be. Brees has lost a step in arm strength, and he showed durability concerns in 2019 when he missed five games with a thumb injury.

Murray is no longer a featured back and the talent behind him is limited if the age or injury bug strikes. Emmanuel Sanders and Jared Cook can still start and contribute, but neither are the players they were earlier in their careers.

Jordan is one of the best pass rushers and you can be sure that he will keep playing at a high motor. Also, his sense of urgency is just as high as the rest of the team’s along with Alonso’s and Davis’.

The defensive backfield is sketchy. Malcolm Jenkins adds veteran leadership and has knowledge of the defensive playbook. But how much fuel does he have left? Janoris Jenkins is talented, yet continues to bounce around the league, and he too is no longer young.

Ditto for backup corner Patrick Robinson. Again, the clear upside remains that this team will continue to press the sense of urgency button in 2020. And many believe this is their last shot to win an NFC Championship before a potential rebuilding process begins.

But given their age, it’s one of the NFL’s oldest rosters bound to burnout before they have that ultimate chance, much like the playoff woes they experienced over the past three seasons.

3 – Legendary Pass Rush

As mentioned, Cameron Jordan is one of those players who will continue to play with a high motor despite entering the wrong end of 30. In 2019, he recorded double-digit sacks for the third straight season, and it was also a career-high for the defensive end.

One reason Jordan is so effective is because of Marcus Davenport lining up opposite of him. They drafted Davenport in 2018, and he continues to come into his own, logging 6 sacks in 2019.

Also, the underrated rotational man Trey Hendrickson contributed with 4.5 sacks, which was good for second place on the team behind Jordan and Davenport. Together, the Saints defensive ends logged 26 of the team’s 51 sacks, over half of the overall production.

While most NFL betting fans know the Saints for their offense, perhaps their pass rush was the best unit on the team in 2019. Their sack total ranked third in the league and look for further improvements in 2020 with younger talent behind Jordan in the rotation.

Perhaps it’s because of the pass rush that the Saints allowed over 30 points per game just twice in 2020 and finished a respectable 13th in points allowed. With an even better pass rush in 2020, expect even more improvement in the points allowed category.

Another reason you will see the team’s overall pass rush improve is because of their interior defensive linemen in Malcolm Brown, Sheldon Rankins, Margus Hunt, and David Onyemata. Hunt and Rankins are capable rotational players while Brown and Onyemata can dominate.

The interior rush will help improve both the pass rush and the run defense, which ranked fourth in the NFL in 2019.

4 – Playoff Meltdowns

One area of concern for the Saints you need to pay attention to are the team’s playoff meltdowns. Since 2017, the Saints have been a popular pick who boasted favorable odds to win the NFC Championship and for three years running, they have kept winning.

You know what happened in 2017, and we need not rehash the old hash here. When someone says Minneapolis Miracle, they’re talking about perhaps the second most infamous play in New Orleans Saints history.

That’s because the most infamous came in the 2018 NFC Championship game. Los Angeles Rams corner Nickell Robey-Coleman got away with a blatant pass interference.

The Saints took the lead with a field goal prior to the Rams scoring drive that forced overtime. Had the officials called pass interference, it would’ve given the Saints a first down and the opportunity to melt the clock and win on a last-second field goal from reliable kicker Will Lutz.

And the Saints went down to the Vikings once more in 2019 in an overtime loss at the Superdome. Given the playoff meltdowns, it’s important to remember that 13 of the team’s projected 22 starters were part of the team in at least two of the three games mentioned. 27 total players if you count the specialists.

Perhaps no team has experienced such playoff meltdowns since the 1986 through 1989 Cleveland Browns, who dropped three AFC Championship games in a four-year time span.

So, should you take the bet? A better question to ask is this: Is your glass half full or half empty? A half-full glass takes the bet, citing the team’s status as among the NFL elite, which added even more puzzle pieces to its deep depth chart in 2020.

If your glass is half empty, you’re convinced getting to the conference championship is this team’s ceiling, and another contender will (again) take the NFC in 2020.

SportsBetting.ag is offering odds on the Saints at +400 to win the NFC championship, making them the favorite, but the ultimate bet rests with you.

Conclusion

The Saints have added pieces to an already dynamic offense that will again wind up in the top five in scoring, as in 2019.

Their sense of urgency means the clock is ticking and the clear upside is that the players will do all they can to pull out an NFC Championship. The downside rests in whether the team’s ability is what it once was in its younger days.

The pass rush is better than ever and figures to be more dangerous in 2020, with Marcus Davenport and Trey Hendrickson continuing to improve behind stalwart Cameron Jordan.

Can the team get past its recent playoff woes, or have they already hit their ceiling? What are your thoughts? Are you betting on the Saints making at least one last run to capture the NFC Championship in 2020? Let us know.