Does Luck Actually Exist?

Some gamblers can never seem to catch a break while playing their favorite game. On other hand, some casino gamblers can’t lose no matter what game they’re playing.

What makes one player get the best cards? What makes the dice fall in your favor? More importantly, does luck actually exist? And how do you get lucky while gambling?

On this page, we’ll attempt to dive into these questions. We’ll examine a few superstitions in gambling, the science of luck, as well as how luck affects skill-based games.

Gamblers and Superstition

From the moment our ancestors first played games of chance competitively, gamblers have been looking for some way to get luck on their side. Even before heading to the casino, some players undergo an exhaustive routine to ensure their good fortune returns for the upcoming session.

These ritualistic behaviors may be as small as a wardrobe tweak. I know a very superstitious gambler who insists on wearing the same green sweater every time she goes on a gambling run.

She’s not alone. I will regularly bump into gamblers that tell me their lucky garment is responsible for their winning streak. I’ve had grown men look me straight in the eyes and explain how they lost their entire bankroll based solely on their shirt’s color being incorrect.

For some reason, socks and underwear appear to have an immense amount of luck associated with them, too. And it doesn’t stop with articles of clothing. A lucky charm bracelet, pair of earrings, necklace, ring, or even a hat can seemingly make or break a gambler’s session.

The superstitions go on and on at incredible lengths. Some casino gamblers insist on eating the same meal before going to the casinos. There are even gamblers that insist on sitting at a specific chair during a specific time just to catch Lady Luck.

The Science of Luck

Luck has been defined as a force that brings good fortune or adversity. How can you scientifically measure an intangible like luck?

Well, you can’t. Not exactly anyway… However, there are ways to look at the effects that believing in luck has on gamblers. Luck itself has no true measurable metrics. In fact, luck only exists for those that believe in it.

So, which player is correct? First, we must look at the flip side of the coin. Casinos don’t stay in business because of all the money walking out the door. In fact, only about 5% of casino visitors actually win. So, that means an overwhelming majority of casino gamblers aren’t fortunate at all.

The science of luck really comes down to the law of probabilities. If a player wins big on a casino trip, it may be labeled as luck because the laws of probability are against them.

What about the vast majority that leaves the casino and a chunk of their money? Are they simply unlucky?

No, if you lose money in the casino, it can be for several reasons. However, luck is seldom one of them. Casino games are tilted in the casino’s favor. It’s called the house advantage, and it keeps casinos in the black.

Suppose you’re walking down the street and stumble across a $20 bill, you may think it’s your lucky day. Does that mean it’s a bad day each time you walk around town and don’t find the money?

What if you leave the $20 on the curb? Does the next person to come along then also have a lucky day?

Totally Random

Casino games are completely random. Even with the $20, there were a string of random occurrences that resulting in it landing at your feet. The same goes for casino games, mostly. Slot machines use random number generators to generate results.

These RNGs take a specific message being sent in order to pay a jackpot. These messages are encoded into the RNG, and the jackpot is triggered at random.

Nobody, not even the programmer, can predict with any accuracy when a machine will payout. Still, a player can walk into the casino for the first time, slap a $20 bill into a machine, press spin, and suddenly become a millionaire.

People will be in awe of the player’s incredible luck. However, it was a completely random series of events. Had the same player walked into a different casino or even sat at a different machine, the results would have been different.

Meanwhile, there’s likely a player in the same casino who has played the same machine for hours a day. If they had hit the jackpot, it would almost assuredly be attributed to being due. Luck seems to follow the better story. The reality is that either player hitting is random.

The difference being that the player on the machine every day has more chances, the probability remains the same on each spin. Being due is a byproduct of the gambler’s fallacy in which past results are somehow influencing the current result. The gambler’s fallacy has bankrupted more than one bankroll.

Skill Beats Luck

There’s no substitute for hard work. If you sit down at a poker table with your lucky hat against a player that has taken the necessary years to hone his skill finely, you’ll soon find that out. Of course, poker is a bit of a different animal; let’s focus on true games of chance.

Casino games are carefully designed to drain your chips. If you walked in, dropped $100 on the table, and lost it immediately, you’d likely start looking for a new hobby.

In the long run, barring some massive jackpot or counting cards, you’re going to lose. The key to casino gambling is to stay in the game as long as possible. Sometimes, you can even leave the casino a winner, but it will require more than luck.

Still, if you employ the basic blackjack strategy, you can easily play blackjack for hours without making any significant dent in your bankroll. How can I know this? Because the math has already been done for us; a basic strategy chart will 100% reduce the casino’s advantage.

If it makes you feel better to wear the same socks every day, go for it. However, put in the time to work on your skill, and luck will manifest itself.

Lucky Streak Explained

What about the rare instances when player’s go on incredible winning streaks? Some bystanders will consider a gambler hitting a run of 10+ consecutive wins a lucky streak. Again, this poses a quandary because, in the end, the math still works out. For example, imagine flipping a coin 1,000 times.

The probability of either heads or tails is 50% on each toss. Now, 1,000 is still a relatively small sample size. But in the end, the final result should be around 50/50.

However, each individual coin flip is completely independent and gives zero consideration to any previous results. In fact, you could get 1,000 consecutive heads. Unfortunately, the probability of that is incredibly low. Still, it will be far more common to have a run of five or more consecutive results one way or another.

See, many people assume that if a bet has a 50% shot, the results will spread out evenly in the short term. So, if they bet black five times in a row and lose, they double down on black because it has to be time for black to hit.

This goes back to the gambler’s fallacy. Each result in any game of chance is completely random and isn’t influenced by previous results.

When a player goes on a “lucky streak,” they are merely experiencing a period of positive results. Hopefully, the player walks away from the table before the laws of probability catch up to them, and they lose it all.

Conclusion

Does luck actually exist? It’s all in the eye of the beholder. Someone watching a player win a pile of cash at the tables may consider them lucky.

That same player who has spent years learning to diminish the house edge may call it hard work. Luck or no luck, there’s no better way to consistently walk away from the casino with more money than learning everything you can about your favorite games.