DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – April 14, 2022

It wasn’t a great start to the season in our inaugural DraftKings MLB DFS Picks piece for the 2022 regular season.

Our pitching have us a nice foundation that our bats were unable to capitalize on, although our lineup did require some tweaking.

Corbin Burnes and Shane McClanahan combined for 11.2 innings of three-run ball with 16 punchouts in that time. McClanahan lasted just 4.2 innings, but Burnes was robbed of a win when his bullpen blew a 2-0 lead in the eighth before the Brewers got the runs back in the ninth as part of a 4-2 win.

With Cavan Biggio out, I had to make some adjustments that led me to take Ji-Man Choi at first base and Gleyber Torres at second. As it turned out, those two bats were the best my lineup had to offer as both men homered on the night.

Otherwise, our four-man Brewers stack stunk the joint out real bad and essentially made cashing impossible.

We’ll look to bounce back on tonight’s six-game evening slate!

DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – April 14, 2022

P – Walker Buehler (LAD) – $9,700 vs. CIN

Easily the top pitcher on the slate and one of the best the league has to offer, Buehler is a must for me as he takes on the Cincinnati Reds this evening at home.

Last season, Buehler was as advertised in turning in a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP on the season, punching out the opposition at a 9.19 K/9 clip while holding walks to just 2.25 batters per nine. After dealing with home run issues in the shortened 2020 season, Buehler’s homer rate sank to just 0.82 HR/9 on the back of a major increase in ground-ball rate to 44.7% for the season.

His 2022 campaign got off to a solid enough start as Buehler turned in five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against two walks, but keep in mind that one came at Coors Field in Colorado, so the two runs allowed is more than reasonable in that venue.

If last season was any indication, Buehler’s work at home should be superior to his work on the road as he posted a 2.05 home ERA compared to a 3.08 mark on the road while his K-rate of 9.51 K/9 at home bested his 8.72 mark on the road. Dodger Stadium can be a home run launching pad at times, but Buehler was able to keep the long balls to 0.95 per nine innings at home a season ago.

Of course, this isn’t the same Reds offense that raked out of the gate last season and it’s a group that has historically been significantly inferior on the road outside of their hitter-friendly home venue. Predictably, the Reds are off to an inauspicious start at the plate, sitting 28th with a .265 wOBA entering this one through their first 214 cumulative trips to the plate.

No doubt who I have atop my lineup tonight.

P – Joe Musgrove (SD) – $7,600 vs. ATL

This lineup is certainly going to see some ownership as it can be used in either cash or GPP tournaments, but it’s a cash-leaned lineup to be sure as Joe Musgrove lines up for his second start of the season against the visiting Atlanta Braves.

Musgrove’s counterpart Charlie Morton is also a nice option and should go lower owned at a much higher price, and both teams are projected to score a near-identical amount of runs with the Braves at 3.8 and the Padres at 3.9. That said, in what could boil down to a pitcher’s duel, I’ll take Musgrove on his home turf tonight.

The right-hander blossomed into a star a season ago. Long a highly-regarded arm, Musgrove turned in a career-year in 2021, posting a 3.18 ERA/3.70 FIP along with a 10.08 K/9 against just 2.68 BB/9.

He certainly built on that work in his 2022 debut. Musgrove pitched six innings of two-run ball while striking out eight and walking none as part of a no decision in Arizona against the D-backs. It wasn’t a super difficult opening matchup, but the K:BB ratio is exactly what we like about that effort.

Like Buehler, having Musgrove at home here is significant. He posted a 2.92 ERA at home versus a 3.44 mark on the road last season, but the strikeout splits were quite wide as he posted an elite 11.40 K/9 at home against a more average 8.70 mark on the road. His 4.33 K:BB ratio at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park easily bested his 3.19 mark elsewhere.

The Braves can certainly hit, but they too fare better at home than on the road. Earning a win might be difficult in a potential pitcher’s duel, but I like the upside here with Musgrove at home.

C – Will Smith (LAD) – $4,100 vs. CIN

Buehler shouldn’t be short on run support tonight as the Dodgers take on the Reds in what will amount to a bullpen game for the road side.

Luis Cessa will get the ball to start, but he’s very much a reliever with two outings and 2.2 innings pitched on the young season. Otherwise, Smith and the Dodgers will take on a bullpen that ranked 27th with a 4.99 ERA last season and tied for 28th with a 1.45 HR/9. Of course, it’s not the exact same bullpen from a year ago, but one currently without perhaps their best arm in Lucas Sims and should otherwise fare near the bottom of the league again this season.

The Dodgers will attract ownership as a result, but I’ll roll with an offense both deep and dangerous.

As for Smith, he’s off to a slow start with 2 for 11 start to his season, one of those hits coming as a double while he’s still managed three runs scored on the back of a strong 15.4% walk rate. While his early-season .274 wOBA isn’t ideal, Smith also owns a .397 xwOBA and a 50% hard-hit rate according to FanGraphs, so he should get going soon despite not having a barrel on the season.

We don’t know how the Reds’ pitching will work out tonight, but it’s worth noting that Smith has very been been a reverse-splits hitter so far in his MLB career. The righty-hitting Smith has mashed same-handed pitching for a .300 ISO, .951 OPS, .395 wOBA and 150 wRC+ in his young big league career, numbers that stand well above his work against southpaws.

Let’s see if he can get going in this one tonight.

1B – Freddie Freeman (LAD) – $5,000 vs. CIN

In a move few some coming after the Braves won the 2021 World Series, Freeman ended up signing with the Dodgers after talks with the Braves fell apart, making L.A. an even bigger powerhouse at the dish in the process.

He’s off to a solid enough start in hitting .286 through the first 24 trips to the plate of his Dodgers career, but he too is without a long ball in the season’s early stages while he does have a pair of doubles to his credit in five games so far.

I mean, we can take plenty of results with a grain of salt this early into a very long MLB season, but Freeman is one of those guys where you know what you’re going to get at season’s end. More than likely you’ll get 30-plus homers (he hit 31 last year) and he should score a monstrous amount of runs again after 120 runs a season ago. He’s scored at least 113 runs in two of the last three full seasons. Out of the two-hole in this Dodgers lineup, Freeman is going to touch home a lot this season.

Like with Smith, the splits will be in our favor here more often than not. The lefty-swinging Freeman pounded right-handed pitching for a .217 ISO, .949 OPS, .393 wOBA and 148 wRC+ last season and is 6 for 17 (.353) off righties in the early stages of this season.

Over the last three rolling seasons, Dodger Stadium owns a 124 HR metric, as per Baseball Savant. With 100 being average, this means this venue has observed home runs 24% above league average over the last three seasons. That mark stood strong in 2021 alone at 127, so this is certainly an advantageous park for the long ball.

No doubt Freeman is going to be a part of my four-man Dodgers stack.

2B – Whit Merrifield (KC) – $4,500 vs. DET

We’re going to grab at least a little bit of Royals exposure here tonight as they take on Tigers right-hander Casey Mize.

One of the most highly-regarded young arms in baseball, Mize turned in a 3.71 ERA at just 23 years of age across 30 starts last season, but he did surrender the home run ball at a 1.44 HR/9 clip. He allowed four runs in five innings in his first start of the season at home versus a dangerous White Sox offense with the final two runs coming via a two-run homer.

Home run power isn’t Merrifield’s game and Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City suppresses the long ball with the best of em’. This is, however, an elite venue in terms of hits. Over the last three seasons, Baseball Savant has this venue sporting a 108 mark for hits, 114 for doubles and a tidy 123 figure for triples. It’s a big outfield with massive gaps that can offer the fleet-footed Merrifield plenty of extra-base upside.

He’s hitting just .200 with zero extra-base knocks across five games so far, but he does already have two steals after leading the AL with 40 a season ago. Mize allowed just three steals in 150.1 innings last season, but there’s always stolen-base potential with Merrifield.

There’s also the fact he’s a Tiger killer. In his career against Detroit, Merrifield owns a .919 OPS with 11 homers, 34 doubles, seven triples and 26 stolen bases in 95 games and 425 trips to the plate. That’s not even a full season’s worth of plate appearances and the damage is severe.

Despite being just 3 for 15 and without an extra-base knock off of Mize, Merrifield is a fine option out of the leadoff spot tonight.

3B – Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) – $2,500 vs. DET

Admittedly, it’s the minuscule price attached to Witt Jr. that caught my attention for Royals exposure, and it’s going to attract ownership as it allows folks like me to afford a pricey Dodgers stack.

Nonetheless, the value upside is enormous here in a battle of potential superstars in this league. Witt’s career at the plate isn’t off to a hot start as he’s just 2 for 20 on the season, although both hits came as doubles. Witt does have three runs and three RBI along with a stolen base in five games so far, so he hasn’t been invisible offensively, either.

The No. 2 prospect in baseball, Witt’s minor-league work was outrageous. Between Double-A and Triple-A last season, the phenom clubbed 34 home runs and stole 29 bases at the age of 21 in a combined 123 games. He posted a 145 wRC+ at Double-A and a similar 142 mark at Triple-A as part of a fast-track to the Majors.

The power/speed combination is going to play well. It’s also beneficial that he is likely to hit right behind Merrifield out of the two-hole in this one, giving us plenty of speed atop that Royals lineup with Witt offering big-time power potential even in a venue that keeps the ball in the yard about more than any other park in baseball. Witt’s speed will allow him to collect a ton of doubles and triples throughout what should be a long and productive big league career.

The price alone warrants a spot in this lineup.

SS – Trea Turner (LAD) – $5,600 vs. CIN

A trendy MVP pick as part of a stacked Dodgers offense, Turner’s season has yet to take off.

Through five games and 23 trips to the plate, Turner is hitting just .238 with zero extra-base knocks to his credit. He has used his elite speed to notch a stolen base in that time, but with just two runs and three RBI he’s fallen well below expectations despite the tiny 2022 sample size.

We need not worry. Turner has hit at least .328 in each of the last two seasons and is a .302 hitter for his career. Small in stature, Turner still generates above-average power with a career .188 ISO and a mark of at least .200 in each of the last three seasons. He hit a career-high 28 home runs last season and hit a hefty 12 in just 59 games in the shortened 2020 season. His power has made significant strides in recent seasons.

So far this season, Turner ranked in the league’s 88th percentile in sprint speed, as per Statcast. That said, he’s ranked in either the 99th or 100th percentile in every single on of his big league seasons beginning in 2015. He’s swiped as many as 46 bases in a season and is coming off a 32-steal season between the Nationals and Dodgers.

Out of the three-hole in this Dodgers lineup, the cross-category upside with Turner is massive each and every night.

OF – Mookie Betts (LAD) – $5,300 vs. CIN

Completing this four-man Dodgers stack is Betts who is going to hit out of the leadoff spot tonight.

An annual MVP threat, Betts is yet another high-profile Dodger to scuffle out of the gate, going 5 for 23 with two doubles across five games so far. Betts has struck out 25% of the time and walked just 4.2% of the time.

Again, let’s not overreact. Betts is a career .296 hitter with 30-homer and 20-steal potential. He’s also going to cross home plate perhaps more than anyone in baseball this season out of the leadoff spot in this lineup. He’s scored as many as 135 runs in a season from his days with a dynamite Boston offense and could approach that mark again this time around. Despite a slow start, he’s still scored four runs in five games, a 130-run pace in a 162-game season.

For what it’s worth, Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson is 24.5% in catching base-stealers in his young career and an impressive 3 for 5 this season. Still, you have to give stolen base potential to guys like Turner and Betts more often than not.

The Dodgers haven’t quite matched expectations at the plate so far this season, but they will be one of, if not perhaps the best offense in baseball this season when it’s all said and done.

OF – Garrett Hampson (COL) – $3,000 vs. CHC

Speaking of power/speed combinations, don’t sleep on the Rockies’ Garrett Hampson tonight as he offers us some GPP differentiation in a matchup perfectly suited to him.

Hampson and the Rockies take on Cubs left-hander Justin Steele in the game’s hitter-friendliest venue at Coors Field in Colorado. Steele was very good in his season-opening start last week, but the 26-year-old posted a 5.52 FIP and 1.89 HR/9 as a rookie last season between the rotation and bullpen in 57 innings, so perhaps he could be prone to the long ball in this one.

A Coors Field game always draws ownership, but I’ll limit my Rockies exposure to Hampson who quietly offers some fantastic cross-category upside.

Simply put, he was elite at home against left-handed pitching last season and vastly subpar otherwise. Against lefties at Coors, Hampson posted a .357 average, .271 ISO, 1.044 OPS, .439 wOBA and 163 wRC+. That’s a 77 plate-appearance sample, but a wildly productive one at that.

In addition to that elite bat work at home off lefties, Hampson also stole 17 bases overall a season ago. He saw 159 plate appearances off lefties and 335 off righties, but eight of those 17 steals came off a southpaw, so he’s not afraid to run against lefties. Steele did allow five steals in those 57 innings while Cubs catcher Willson Contreras was just 20.7% in catching base stealers a season ago and 0 for 2 this season.

I like this under-the-radar look tonight.

OF – Victor Reyes (DET) – $2,700 vs. KC

Completing this lineup is Tigers outfielder Victor Reyes who comes at the right price given our cost constraints but with plenty to like tonight.

First off, the fact that Reyes is the Tigers’ projected leadoff hitter is a win right away. The Tigers outfield is dealing with some injuries and Reyes is looking to take advantage.

So far he’s off to a good start in doing so. It’s a tiny sample, but Reyes is 2 for 7 with two walks and a triple along with a pair of RBI on the season. He’s largely been a below-average bat in his MLB career that spans 307 games, but Reyes did show some additional power last season with a .158 ISO (vs. a .118 career mark) and actually hit .304 in the 2019 season at just 24 years of age.

In addition to some additional power, there’s some speed here. Reyes stole five bases in 76 games last season and has 31 steals across those 307 career games. Last season, his sprint speed ranked in the league’s 89th percentile and he was actually at 94th in 2018 and 92nd in 2019.

Royals starter Zack Greinke doesn’t historically give up many steals, but did allow seven in 171 innings last season, although Royals catcher Sal Perez is one of the game’s best in stopping the run game in throwing out 43.9% of potential base stealers and 35.6% for his career.

Nonetheless, the bat is vastly improved here and with the near-elite speed Reyes offers extra-base potential in this venue tonight.