DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – April 25, 2022

We have a fresh week of DraftKings MLB DFS Picks ahead of us!

We begin the week with a seven-game Monday night slate. It’s an interesting one to be sure with some high-priced arms, low run projections across the board and a difficult choice on who to target in GPPs with such a strong pitching contingent all over the map.

That being said, let’s dive into some DraftKings MLB DFS Picks and see if we can start the week off on the right note!

DraftKings MLB DFS Picks – April 25, 2022

P – Max Scherzer (NYM) – $9,300 vs. STL

The pitching slate is loaded, so we need to find the right combination of high-upside arms along with some bats that provide a combination of upside and low ownership.

While Corbin Burnes is a nice bet at the top of the slate, I’m going to roll the dice and fade against a strong Giants offense. Rather, I’ll dial up Max Scherzer to take on the Cardinals tonight in St. Louis.

Scherzer has been pretty Scherzer-esque so far this season, working to a 2.50 ERA/2.58 FIP across three starts spanning 18 innings of work. In that time, Scherzer has punched out 11.50 batters per nine innings, although he’ll look to cut down on the free passes with a 3.50 BB/9 on the campaign to this point, a figure well above his 2.41 career mark.

Scherzer worked his way through seven innings his last time out, throwing a season-high 102 pitches in a 10-strikeout effort against the Giants. It’s safe to say he’s fully stretched out after throwing just 80 pitches in his season opener.

There’s no doubt this Cardinals offense presents a challenge for the future Hall of Famer as they’re tied for 13th with a .315 wOBA on the season. Their 20.2% K-rate is third best in baseball which isn’t exactly ideal for punchouts, but Scherzer himself brings plenty of strikeout upside to the table each and every time he takes the bump.

With just 12 runs scored over their last five games, the Cards aren’t exactly entering this one white-hot at the plate coming off a 4-1 loss to the Reds last yesterday afternoon. Furthermore, Busch Stadium sits in a three-way tie with the O.Co Coliseum in Oakland and T-Mobile Park in Seattle with a park factor of 94, the lowest in baseball over the last three seasons according to Baseball Savant. It’s home run metric of 82 is tied for the third-lowest in baseball in that same time.

In other words, we have a high-strikeout pitcher in a very pitcher-friendly ball park tonight. Add in a three-run projections for the Cards — lowest on the board — and we’ll take that and run this evening.

P – Walker Buehler (LAD) – $8,800 vs. ARI

While Scherzer has been on point so far this season, Buehler hasn’t quite found his form.

The Dodgers’ ace enters this one sporting a 4.02 ERA/4.49 FIP on the season, and more concerning is perhaps his tiny 6.32 K/9 against a 3.45 BB/9, both of which are well off career norms. Buehler has also managed just 15.2 innings across three starts on the season even though he’s thrown as many as 98 pitches in a start. He’s labored for the most part.

However, I do consider myself a “regression to the mean” kind of guy when the track record warrants it. Buehler is a 2.93 ERA/3.24 FIP pitcher with a 9.83 K/9 across 589 regular-season MLB innings, not to mention his sterling postseason work. He pitched to a 2.47 ERA/3.16 FIP across 33 starts last season, finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young voting in the process.

The matchup is also quite nice here. The D-backs are once again struggling at the plate this season, sitting tied for 22nd with a .281 wOBA on the season while their 25.5% K-rate is the fourth-highest mark in baseball. Furthermore, that K-rate jumps to 27.3% against right-handed pitching, good for the worst mark in baseball.

Buehler has also shoved against the D-backs in his career. In 11 career starts against Arizona spanning 64.1 innings of work, he owns a tidy 2.24 ERA and 10.50 K/9. In four career starts at Chase Field in Arizona, Buehler is the owner of a 2.63 ERA and 10.90 K/9 across 24 innings of work.

He is better at home than on the road, but Buehler is going to enjoy a big starts here in short order and we might as well target the light-hitting D-backs who have struck out a ton here in the early going this season.

C – Mitch Garver (TEX) – $4,300 vs. HOU

It sure is a difficult slate when choosing your stacks this evening, but I’m rolling out a pair of four-man stacks, one of which is the Texas Rangers as they take on the Astros and left-hander Framber Valdez.

Valdez has been solid this season, but has struggled with walks as he owns a 6.43 BB/9 on the season with a weak 7.71 K/9 as well. He continues to induce a ton of ground balls with a 74.4% mark in that department on the season, something that’s surely helped him prevent runs despite owning an elevated 4.50 ERA on the season, but also with a strong 3.73 FIP.

That said, the Rangers are raking left-handed pitching this season. As a team, they own a seventh-ranked .344 wOBA and fourth-ranked .192 ISO off southpaws. It’s early, but that’s still a 197 plate-appearance sample as a club off lefties.

So, let’s kick off a Rangers stack with Garver who has clobbered left-handers in his career. The former Twins backstop owns a career .240 ISO, .842 OPS, .355 wOBA and 124 wRC+ off southpaw pitching. He’s off to a weak start this season, but his lone extra-base hit for the campaign was a home run off a lefty on Opening Day in Toronto.

As a result, it’s clear he’s fairly cold at the plate right now. However, perhaps a matchup with a southpaw can get him back in the groove and playing some more long ball given his history in these types of matchups.

1B – Rhys Hoskins (PHI) – $5,100 vs. COL

The Phillies are my second stack of the night and should see some ownership as they take on Rockies left-hander Kyle Freeland.

That said, they should absolutely be able to exploit this matchup. While the Rangers have mashed lefties so far, the Phillies have been the best team in baseball versus southpaws this season by way of a MLB-leading .378 wOBA in such matchups while their .201 ISO off lefties sits third league wide.

It’s also a scuffling lefty going for the visitors in this one. Freeland enters this one sporting a 7.71 ERA on the season in three starts and 14 innings. His peripherals suggest better days are ahead as he also owns a 4.30 FIP and 4.15 SIERA while he’s only allowed a 0.64 HR/9 on the season.

Nonetheless, let’s see if Hoskins can continue to punish southpaws. The slugging first baseman owns a career .277 ISO, .918 OPS, .389 wOBA and 142 wRC+ off left-handers pitchers. So far this season, Hoskins has homered, doubled and tripled off of a left-handers across just 12 at-bats with a pair of walks as well, giving him a monstrous .500 ISO, 1.107 OPS, .466 wOBA and 205 wRC+ in that small early-season sample.

It’s clear he clobbers left-handed pitching. He’s just 1 for 6 in his career off Freeland, but that lone hit went for a triple.

With just one hit and zero extra-base knocks over his last four games, let’s get Hoskins going against a lefty in this one tonight.

2B – Marcus Semien (TEX) – $4,200 vs. HOU

Semien hasn’t exactly given the Rangers much early-season return on a massive investment they made into him following an MVP-caliber season with the Blue Jays in 2021.

After mashing 45 long balls last season and setting the MLB record for most homers in a season by a second baseman, Semien has yet to play long ball in Rangers colors and is hitting just .183 with a .231 wOBA on the campaign. Furthermore, his .260 xwOBA isn’t exactly suggesting he’s endured much poor luck, although his .224 BABIP on the season is well below his .290 career mark.

I don’t tend to look into Semien’s splits a whole lot. He’s had years when he hits lefties better than righties and vice versa. That said, his career-long splits certainly suggest he’s been better against lefties overall with a .204 ISO, .802 OPS, .343 wOBA and 118 wRC+ against them, all of which are notably superior to his work off righties.

Last year with the Jays, Semien’s splits leaned more towards righties despite obviously raking lefties as well. When he enjoyed his major breakout in 2019 with the A’s, he hit lefties better overall, but the power was about equal between the two. It’s just too tough to project where his splits will end up, but he’s generally been real good against both lefties and righties.

He’s also been real good against Valdez. Semien has gone 3 for 6 with a homer and a walk in his career off the Astros left-hander.

After doing 2 for 4 with a double and a walk yesterday, let’s see if Semien can keep it going against a pitcher he’s enjoyed success against in the past.

3B – Alec Bohm (PHI) – $3,600 vs. COL

His glove work has been flat-out horrendous, but Bohm has raked at the plate this season and hits lefties quite well.

Despite being an early-season lightning rod for the club, the former top prospect enters this one hitting .355 with a .916 OPS, .387 wOBA and 151 wRC+ at the dish. It’s also worth noting that his .416 xwOBA sits in the league’s 90th percentile. He hasn’t hit for a ton of power in his big-league career yet, but has shown more extra-base pop this season with a couple doubles and a homer. His solid .161 ISO is much better than his .112 career mark and the weak .095 mark he put forth a season ago.

Additionally, he sits in the league’s 97th percentile in average exit velocity, 86th in hard hit rate, 95th in xBA, 86th in xSLG and 68th in barrel rate. The peripherals back up the strong results at the plate this season.

The work so far in his career has been vastly superior versus left-handed pitching. Bohm has hit lefties for a .292 average, .173 ISO, .828 OPS, .355 wOBA and 122 wRC+. So far this season, Bohm has gone 4 for 10 with two doubles and three walks off left-handed pitching.

If that weren’t enough, Bohm’s best work at the plate comes at home off lefties. He owns a career .232 ISO, .895 OPS, .377 wOBA and 135 wRC+ at Citizens Bank Park versus left-handed pitching.

Excellent value potential tonight with Bohm to be sure.

SS – Johan Camargo (PHI) – $2,900 vs. COL

With Camargo in this lineup, it eliminates Corey Seager of the Rangers, a decision that took some time to make but this is how the lineup shook out as I wanted to get Camargo into this Phillies stack.

Camargo over Seager might be perplexing to some, but Camargo loves hitting left-handed pitching. For his career, the former Atlanta Brave owns a .286 average, .220 ISO, .841 OPS, .353 wOBA and 118 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. So far this season, he’s 4 for 10 with a homer off southpaws.

It’s been a strong overall start for him in his new digs in Philly. Camargo is hitting .318 with a homer, two doubles, a .350 wOBA and 126 wRC+ on the campaign. His .320 xwOBA isn’t as attractive and many of his statcast peripherals rank in the bottom-half of the league. He does, however, at least sit in the 82nd percentile in xBA.

Nonetheless, it’s clear he packs the most punch against left-handers. It’s a minuscule sample. but he’s 1 for 2 with a pair of walks in four trips to the plate in his career off Freeland. He’s at least seeing the ball well off the Rockies southpaw.

He’s hitless in his last six trips to the plate, but we should be able to get him going in this matchup tonight.

OF – Nick Castellanos (PHI) – $5,300 vs. COL

Completing a four-man Phillies stack tonight in Castellanos who has long been a nightmare for left-handed pitching.

Even before his breakout after a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs at the 2019 trade deadline, Castellanos hit southpaws for plenty of extra-base power. He’s finding the seats more in recent seasons, however.

For his career, Castellanos has mashed left-handers to the tune of a .303 average, .236 ISO, .894 OPS, .375 wOBA and 136 wRC+. Last season, he hit .306 with a .285 ISO, .945 OPS, .393 wOBA and 142 wRC+ off lefties. In the aforementioned 2019 season, he exploded for a .343 ISO, 1.138 OPS, .460 wOBA and 190 wRC+ off lefties. As noted, the work has been even better of late when it comes to lefties.

So far this season, Castellanos is 6 for 16 (.375) with a homer and a walk off left-handed pitching.

After signing a four-year deal with the Phillies in the offseason, Castellanos is off to a nice start with his new club. At the moment, he’s hitting .317 with three homers, five doubles, a .233 ISO, .923 OPS, .405 wOBA and 164 wRC+. His .410 xwOBA that sits in the league’s 88th percentile supports his excellent work while he also sits in the 79th percentile in barrel rate.

Another important factor when it comes to this Phillies stack is the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Baseball Savant has this venue sporting a 115 home run metric (100 being average) over the last three seasons and a 130 mark for triples, for what it’s worth. That 115 home run mark is tied for sixth while Coors Field in Colorado owns a 116 mark, for context.

Obviously, the ceiling is super high when it comes to the slugging Castellanos tonight.

OF – Adolis Garcia (TEX) – $3,400 vs. HOU

The Rangers have so many players that hit lefties well, so it was a tough call on who to include in this lineup. The way things worked out, Garcia made plenty of sense.

Obviously, the cost is one factor as it allowed us to grab a couple of pricey sticks in Hoskins and Castellanos. That said, he hits lefties with plenty of power and has strong numbers off Valdez in a small sample.

Like with his new teammate Semien, I don’t worry about diving into Garcia’s splits a while lot. He hits both lefties and righties for plenty of power, or at least he did in his rookie season in 2021. His overall splits actually leaned towards righties which made him a reverse-splits hitter a season ago, but he posted a powerful .202 ISO off lefties and a similar .217 mark off righties.

One thing to note is how much better he was at home, however. Garcia posted a .255 ISO, .815 OPS, .343 wOBA and 120 wRC+ at home versus a .172 ISO, .671 OPS, .286 wOBA and 80 wRC+ on the road. The work was best at home versus righties, but he’s comfortable in Texas’ new home ball park it appears.

He’s not off to a great start this season overall with a .182 average and 81 wRC+, but he does have two homers and two steals to his credit. He showed a strong power/speed combination in homering 31 times while swiping 16 bases last season. For his part, Valdez does allow more steals than your typical left-hander with 18 allowed in his 327 big-league innings, five of which came last season across 134.2 innings of work.

Let’s see if he can put that combination on display tonight.

OF – Nick Solak (TEX) – $3,100 vs. HOU

If I had to choose one player that I was not going to keep out of this four-man Rangers stack it is Solak given how he’s fared against lefties both in his career overall and early this season.

It wasn’t a great showing for Solak both in 2020 and 2021 after a strong 33-game debut in the 2019 season. That said, he’s off to a strong start this time around with a .349 wOBA and 134 wRC+. He’s homered twice in 11 games which gives him a powerful .194 ISO on the campaign.

That said, this is all about the splits. Solak hasn’t exactly mashed lefties for power with a career .148 ISO off them, but is also hitting .296 with an .814 OPS, .354 wOBA and 125 wRC+ off them as well. Perhaps the power is developing nicely, however. So far this season, Solak has gone 7 for 17 (.412) with two home runs off left-handed pitching. That’s not too shabby.

Furthermore, he’s been at his best at home off lefties where he’s hit them for a .151 ISO, .888 OPS, .382 wOBA and 141 wRC+ for his career. The new park in Texas helped lower those numbers last season, but he still managed an .816 OPS, .357 wOBA and 128 wRC+ at home off lefties last season, by far his best home/road, lefty/righty combined split of the four.

We’ll need more power in this matchup, but Solak is also 3 for 9 in his career off Valdez. As it stands right now, this lineup is projected to be a 1-3-4-5 stack with Solak projected as the five-hole hitter. His bat is crucial to the success of this stack tonight.