Electoral College Betting Odds – Midwestern States

Oddsmakers continue to like the chances of Democratic candidate Joe Biden to defeat President Donald Trump in next week’s US presidential election. The odds have steadily favored Biden since he officially earned his party’s nomination over the summer, while Trump’s odds have continued to plummet.

Of course, oddsmakers looked silly around this time four years ago when Trump pulled off his massive upset of Hillary Clinton on Election Night. Trump faced odds as long as +400 to win back in 2016, so his current odds naturally look quite a bit more favorable.

Will Trump pull off a repeat performance in 2020? Or will Biden close the deal? A variety of political betting sites are offering prop bets tied to either candidate’s chances to win each and every state. MyBookie’s odds suggest we should expect competitive races in a number of midwestern states on Election Night.

If you’re looking to bet on any of these Electoral College prop bets, we recommend using one of these sites listed below:

• MyBookie
• BetNow
• Bovada Sports
• BetOnline Sports
• SportsBetting.ag

Illinois Massively Favors Biden

Biden’s -3000 chances of winning Illinois on Election Night are even better than his odds of winning California (-2000). Considering we’re more likely to see Bigfoot taken as the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft than Trump winning California, I’d say I like Biden’s chances of nabbing Illinois on Tuesday.

Illinois has gone Democrat in each of the last seven presidential elections, and Clinton beat Trump here by 17 points four years ago. We’ve got 20 electoral votes on the line here, so Illinois will be a big win for Biden and the Democrats.

Trump Bounces Back in Indiana

Trump is nearly as big a favorite in Indiana as Biden is in neighboring Illinois. Indiana isn’t quite as crucial considering there are just 11 votes at stake here, but this has been a steady Republican state for quite some time. With the exception of 1968 and 2008, Indiana has gone red in every election since 1940.

It also doesn’t hurt that Trump’s VP, Mike Pence, hails from the state. Pence’s popularity in Indiana is somewhat questionable, but this one doesn’t look like a serious contest.

Could Biden Flip Iowa?

Here we go! Iowa makes political news every four years as the state that holds its first nomination contests, but the state rarely garners a ton of attention on Election Night. With only six Electoral College votes, Iowa doesn’t have quite as much impact in the general as it does during the nomination process.

Still, we have a legitimate toss-up here. Trump took Iowa by about 10 points last time around, but Barack Obama won here in both of his attempts in 2008 and 2012. Since 1932, Iowa has voted for Democratic presidential candidates 10 times, while opting for Republicans another 12 times. Democrats have taken Iowa in six of the last eight presidential elections, with the only exceptions being Trump (2016) and George W. Bush (2004).

Quinnipiac poll:

Florida: Likely voters

Biden 45%

Trump 42%

Iowa: Likely voters

Trump 47%

Biden 46%

Pennsylvania: Likely voters

Biden 51%

Trump 44%

Ohio: Likely voters

Biden 48%

Trump 43%

— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 29, 2020

You won’t often see a candidate turn a state that the other candidate won by such a huge margin last time around, but we may see that in 2020. Biden is currently polling just a point behind Trump in the latest Iowa Quinnipiac poll, while Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running neck-and-neck with Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.

With Iowa looking like it could go either way, you might as well take a shot on Biden’s +130 odds here. This is one of the few states that looks generally unpredictable from one election to the next, so it’s certainly not impossible that Biden paints the state blue. Take the plus-money odds in the tight race.

Kansas Sides With Trump

Kansas has not been a friendly place for Democrats over the years. The last Democratic candidate to win the state was Lyndon Johnson in 1964. That means Republicans have taken Kansas’ electoral votes in each of the last 13 elections. Trump is likely to run the streak to 14 this year.

As is the case with some other states, the race for the Senate may wind up being a better betting opportunity than the race for the White House here. Trump is a -1500 favorite to keep Kansas, but Republican Senator Roger Marshall is only at -400 to stave off his opponent, Barbara Bollier (+250).

A GBAO poll cited by FiveThirtyEight had the Senate candidates tied at 47-47, while another poll had Bollier leading by a point. I can make the same case for Bollier here that I made for Biden to win Iowa. In a race that looks incredibly close on paper, there is merit to putting down at least a small wager on the plus-money underdog. It’s hard to imagine a state as deeply red as Kansas sending a Democrat to Washington, but Bollier seems to have an excellent chance at pulling the upset here.

Is Trump Toast in Michigan?

Trump’s win in Michigan in 2016 essentially sealed his fate as the 45th president. Pundits believed Clinton had a “blue wall” of reliable states tipping in her favor in the upper midwest last time around, so she essentially punted on campaigning here. That came back to bite her, as Trump would go on to win the state by the slimmest of margins. Trump seized Michigan’s 16 crucial electoral votes by a 47.5-47.3 percent margin. That was a difference of just under 11,000 votes in a state with a population of nearly 10 million people.

Trump’s shocking win in Michigan last time around ended a streak of six straight elections in which the state voted blue. While Trump would obviously love to recreate that 2016 magic again in 2020, polls indicate he may be up a creek without a paddle here. Trump trails Biden by eight points in the latest Citizen Data polling.

Clinton led polls by about 1.6 points ahead of Election Day 2016. That’s a marked difference from what we’re seeing with Biden this time around. It’s hard to imagine Trump making up that kind of ground in such a short time span.

Republicans have put a lot of money into the campaign of Republican Senate candidate John James, but incumbent Gary Peters is a steady -250 favorite to keep his seat. Anything can happen on Election Night, but the polling makes Trump a very tough sell in Michigan, even at +175 odds.

Minnesota Continues To Trend Blue

Minnesota has been a hotly contested state for a number of years, but Republicans have thus far struggled to break through. Minnesota has gone Democrat in every presidential election since 1976, with Clinton beating Trump here last time around by a little less than two percentage points.

JUST IN: Joe Biden is heading to St. Paul, Minnesota, tomorrow. It will be the fullest travel day of his general election campaign, with stops now in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

— Matt Viser (@mviser) October 29, 2020

Polls have differed a bit here, but Biden has held a consistent lead. A recent SurveyUSA poll has Biden leading Minnesota by five points, while a SurveyMonkey poll has Biden 12 points ahead. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, which is more than enough to carry Biden across the finish line to net the state’s 10 electoral votes.

Biden at -350 doesn’t offer a ton of profit potential, but the odds are favorable enough that you can still place a bet here and feel pretty good about the outcome.

Missouri Is Safe for Trump

Donald Trump took nearly 57 percent of the total vote in Missouri four years ago, with Hillary Clinton inching just over 38 percent. The Republican party has won here in every election since George W. Bush won it in 2000.

Trump likely won’t win the state by quite as comfortable a margin in 2020, but margin of victory doesn’t really matter. This is an all-or-nothing state, and it’s almost impossible to imagine Trump faltering in a state he won by nearly 20 points in 2016. Missouri isn’t the lock for the GOP that some of these other midwestern states seem to be, but the smart money lies with the incumbent here.

Nebraska Isn’t Viable for Biden

Donald Trump’s recent rally in Omaha may have left some of his voters out in the cold, but even that snafu isn’t very likely to cost him any votes in the reliably-red state. Trump is only up 52-46 in the most recent polling conducted here, but the last Democrat to win Nebraska in outright fashion was LBJ in 1964.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that don’t use a winner-take-all system with their five electoral votes. There’s a chance Biden could steal a couple of votes in Omaha’s 2nd Congressional District, but it’s easy to see why Trump is such a heavy favorite here.

North Dakota Is As Red As It Gets

No state gives Trump better odds than North Dakota. The president is a -10000 favorite here. Unfortunately for Trump, the state gives him access to just three electoral votes. Like Nebraska, North Dakota hasn’t gone blue since Johnson in ’64.

Biden won’t be the one to turn the tide.

Trump Favored to Reclaim Ohio

Ohio is typically a harbinger of success when it comes to presidential elections. Ohio has voted in favor of the eventual winner of every presidential election but one since 1944. The lone exception came in 1960 when they voted for Richard Nixon over JFK.

Trump took Ohio by eight points last time around as he swept his way through the battleground states to beat Clinton. Ohio has been a battleground state for years, and 2020 appears to be no exception. While Trump is still a -250 favorite to win, he almost surely won’t claim the Buckeye State as easily as he did four years ago.

NEW POLL: Biden leading Trump in Pennsylvania and Ohio https://t.co/ZIg29RDSYZ pic.twitter.com/8edm6wwfUm

— The Hill (@thehill) October 29, 2020

Trump really can’t get his way to 270 electoral votes without adding the 18 he needs from Ohio. The latest Gravis Marketing poll gives Trump a 49-47 lead, but another Quinnipiac Poll puts Biden up 49-43. I think the realistic expectation here is that Trump leads, but the margin is incredibly narrow.

For that reason, an inexpensive wager on Biden’s +170 odds to pull the upset is logical. Ohio was blue as recently as 2012, and the GOP’s reluctance to pass a stimulus package likely won’t do wonders for Trump’s support among working-class voters in the state. The safe bet is Trump at -250, but Biden at +170 isn’t the dumbest bet in the world.

South Dakota Goes Trump

Trump isn’t quite as popular in South Dakota as he is in the state’s neighbor to the north, but sites with election betting odds still aren’t expecting a whole lot of drama here on Election Night. Trump smoked Clinton here by a whopping 30 percentage points in 2016, and South Dakota hasn’t voted for a Democrat since Johnson in 1964. LBJ must’ve been quite a popular chap.

We have enough solid plus-money bets on Biden in other states to where you don’t need to get cute with his +1000 odds to stake a claim to South Dakota.

Wisconsin is Massively Important To Both Candidates

As was the case in Michigan in 2016, Trump was able to turn the election on his head thanks to his better-than-expected showing in Wisconsin. A RealClearPolitics poll had Clinton leading by nearly seven percentage points ahead of Election Day that year. Trump wound up winning by 0.7 percent.

Obviously, that means we should take these polls with a grain of salt. However, Biden is currently enjoying a much larger lead than Hillary did at any point four years ago. SurveyMonkey’s latest numbers have Biden up 55-43. An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted between October 20-25 amazingly had Biden up 56-39.

NEW @YouGovAmerica/@ElectionsCenter Poll (LV, 10/13-21),

Among those who already voted:

WISCONSIN

Biden 73% (+47)

Trump 26%

.

MICHIGAN

Biden 75% (+52)

Trump 23%

.

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden 87% (+79)

Trump 9%https://t.co/5EJy3PjEou

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 26, 2020

This isn’t a new trend, either. Biden has been steadily leading in the polls here for months, and he’s doing far better numbers than Clinton did. Wisconsin is also in the midst of a dreadful COVID outbreak, and the president’s lackluster handling of the pandemic has hurt his chances among the state’s voting bloc.

2016 taught us that we can’t really be surprised by anything, but Biden losing Wisconsin despite polling giving him monstrous leads would be legitimately shocking at this point. Biden looks primed to turn the state blue following 2016’s unexpected result.