Electoral College Betting Odds – Western States

Oddsmakers have been steady in their belief that Joe Biden will win the 2020 presidential election. Despite the fact that Donald Trump has spent the majority of his presidency as the odds-on favorite to win re-election, Biden has since surpassed the incumbent at just about every political betting site you’ll find.

Of course, it doesn’t take a great memory to recall that Trump was a massive underdog back in 2016 when he shocked the world by knocking off Hillary Clinton on Election Night. Trump’s odds to win in 2020 won’t be quite as long as his odds were back then, but you can still get pretty good value on the president to win a second term at our top-rated election betting sites.

While we have a number of battleground states in play in this election cycle, the western part of the US may be devoid of much drama. Save for Arizona, the west coast’s Electoral College map may look awfully similar to the one we saw four years ago.

If you’re looking for where to bet on the US Presidential election, we recommend checking out these sites listed below:

• MyBookie
• Bovada
• BetOnline

Each of these online betting sites are offering state-specific prop bets ahead of November 3. How should you bet the western region of the US?

Alaska Senate Seat Up For Grabs

Alaska has a long history of voting for Republicans in election cycles. While the state’s voting history obviously only dates back t0 1960, the Last Frontier has only gone blue once. That was in 1964 when LBJ won the presidency in a landslide. That means Alaska has gone red in each of the last 13 elections, and 13 times in 14 elections overall.

Trump won Alaska in 2016 by about 50,000 votes, but given Alaska’s small population, it was a pretty easy victory.

Trump took over 51 percent of the vote. Polls are expecting a similar result in 2020, with the president currently polling around 52 percent. While Biden (43 percent) is expected to get more votes than Clinton (36 percent) did, that obviously won’t be enough to flip the state. Trump is a lock at -1800 to keep the state’s three electoral votes.

We have a more intriguing race in the Senate. Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan is polling tightly with challenger Al Gross. Sullivan has just a three-point edge in the most recent polling. While MyBookie’s odds still favor Sullivan to retain his seat (-260), a flier bet on Gross (+180) is viable considering the race is so competitive.

Arizona May Flip to Biden

Arizona has a long history of voting for Republicans in presidential elections, but the state is very much up for grabs in 2020. Trump took all 11 votes here last time after securing about 100,000 more votes than Clinton, but his margin of victory was slim. Arizona’s shifting demographics have tightened political margins for Republicans here in recent years, and this may be the year we see the Grand Canyon State turn blue.

That’s a marked shift considering Arizona has voted for a Democrat in just one presidential election (1996) since 1952. Arizona helped Bill Clinton win a second term, but it has otherwise been a safe haven for those on the right side of the political aisle. Biden is polling in front of Trump there in the latest polls, and election betting sites have installed the former VP as a minus-money favorite (-140) as of this writing.

Arizona’s lengthy pro-Republican history could make Trump a viable plus-money betting option at +110, but the writing may be on the wall at this point. Biden is a great bet to add Arizona to his western blue wall.

We also have a Democratic Senate candidate in Mark Kelly (-400) polling well ahead of Republican incumbent Martha McSally (+250). McSally lost her Senate race to Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona in 2016, but she was appointed to the state’s other Senate seat following the death of John McCain a couple of years ago. This looks like another seat the Democrats will be picking up in the Senate.

Biden Will Cruise in Cali

Donald Trump is about as popular as the plague in California. Hillary Clinton trounced Trump by over four million votes in the country’s most populous state in 2016. While Biden isn’t polling quite as well as Clinton did last time around, there is still no reason to believe California’s 55 electoral votes are going anywhere. Trump can tweet at California all he wants, but it won’t do him any good.

Vote TRUMP California. No more blackouts, shutdowns, ridiculous forrest fires, or water “rationing” (coming soon). We can win in California NOW! https://t.co/6O8F9jjhTf

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 7, 2020

Colorado Out of Reach for Trump?

Colorado has been a battleground over the years, but it’s trending in the direction of Democrats these days. The state was one of the first to legalize and regulate marijuana, and it’s only gotten more progressive from there.

Clinton toppled Trump in Colorado by a little over 130,000 votes, but Biden will likely enjoy a bigger margin of victory in 2020. FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages have the ex-VP leading Trump by up to 20 percentage points. Democrats have taken Colorado in each of the last three presidential elections, and Biden is a sizable -1000 favorite to run that streak to four.

COLORADO

Biden 55% (+16)

Trump 39%

WISCONSIN

Biden 54% (+12)

Trump 42%

PENNSYLVANIA

Biden 52% (+9)

Trump 43%

MINNESOTA

Biden 51% (+9)

Trump 42%

MICHIGAN

Biden 52% (+8)

Trump 44%

FLORIDA

Biden 52% (+7)

Trump 45%

NORTH CAROLINA

Biden 50% (+3)

Trump 47%@MorningConsult, LV

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 22, 2020

Incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is also on the ropes. MyBookie has Gardner as a +400 underdog to keep his seat, with former Governor John Hickenlooper now listed as a -700 favorite. Democrats are increasingly likely to pick up another seat in the US Senate here, solidifying Colorado as a blue state.

Hawaii is Solid Blue

Hawaii offers only four electoral votes, but Joe Biden is a -4000 favorite to earn them. Clinton more than doubled Trump’s percentage of the vote here four years ago, with nearly 63 percent to Trump’s 30.3 percent. Recent polling has shown no indication that Hawaii is ready to flip for the Republicans. Hawaii has gone red just twice in its history, most recently in 1984 in favor of Ronald Reagan.

Trump a Lock in Idaho

Idaho is another small prize that is likely to remain in Trump’s win column. The Republican candidate took all but two counties in the entire state back in 2016, when he earned 59.25 percent of the vote compared to just 27.4 percent for Hillary Clinton.

Trump actually lost the Republican primary to Ted Cruz here back in 2016, but there is no indication whatsoever that the president will be losing here this time around. Trump owns an 18-point lead in the latest SurveyMonkey polls conducted in Idaho. As a result, there’s almost no betting value when it comes to Idaho’s three votes.

All Montana Drama Lies in the Senate Race

Montanans have voted for Democratic candidates in presidential elections just twice since 1952. The state went for Lyndon Johnson in 1964, while Bill Clinton picked up a win here before his first term in ’92. Trump beat Clinton by about 20 points here four years ago, and there is no reason to think he’s in serious risk of losing their three electoral votes in 2020.

It’s not impossible to think that Biden can pull the upset here considering the latest polls have Trump only up 51-47, but the safe money is with the Republicans given the state’s pro-Republican track record.

However, a Republican incumbent Senator may well be going down in flames. Steve Daines is in for the fight of his life with Governor Steve Bullock, who is looking to become Montana’s second Democratic Senator alongside Jon Tester.

#NEW Montana Senate Poll:

Bullock (D) 48%

Daines (R) 47%.

Mountain States Poll (LV)

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) October 28, 2020

MyBookie currently has Bullock as a +200 ‘dog to Daines (-300). This despite the fact that the two seem to be polling neck-and-neck, with Bullock potentially owning a slight advantage. I don’t necessarily think you’re crazy to take a shot at Biden here given the +750 odds, but the much better bet seems to be Bullock at +200.

Will New Mexico’s Blue Shift Continue?

New Mexico is another state with a history of being a swing state. The state has gone red nine times since 1952, while voting blue another eight times in the same time span. Democrats have enjoyed quite a bit more success here in recent years, though, with six wins in seven presidential elections in the Land of Enchantment since Clinton’s first run in 1992.

New Mexico’s population and political influence have steadily grown, with five electoral votes up for grabs. Biden is a justifiable -800 favorite here given the state’s recent history and the fact that he has steadily polled better than Trump. Trump is down 53-45 in the most recent polls, while some polls over the summer gave Biden a double-digit advantage.

Trump is incredibly unlikely to be able to close that gap in time.

Biden Looks Good in Oregon

Donald Trump has made the city of Portland a frequent target over the course of his “law and order” campaign. While that may help him solidify his base, consistently lambasting the city isn’t helping his popularity much in Oregon. In fact, he’s probably making Portland a target because he knows he has zero chance whatsoever at actually nabbing Oregon’s electoral votes.

We are trying to help Portland, not hurt it. Their leadership has, for months, lost control of the anarchists and agitators. They are missing in action. We must protect Federal property, AND OUR PEOPLE. These were not merely protesters, these are the real deal!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 19, 2020

Biden leads Trump 61-38 in FiveThirtyEight’s most recent polling averages You can safely assume that Biden should be heavier than a -1000 favorite here, especially considering the state has become steadily more progressive in recent elections. Clinton won this state by 11 points last time, and Biden’s margin of victory will almost surely be much larger.

Trump Safe in Utah

Donald Trump has gotten into his fair share of public tiffs with Utah Senator Mitt Romney, but that almost surely won’t be enough to tip the scales in Biden’s favor this time around. Trump won Utah with about 46 percent of the total vote in 2016, with native son Evan McMullin slicing into the vote totals of both the Democratic and Republican candidates.

With McMullin out of the mix this time around, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with the vote shares. One would think most McMullin voters will side with Trump considering McMullin is a conservative, but Trump’s polling numbers in Utah haven’t been quite as good as they have been in some other noted Republican safe havens.

Still, Trump at -2000 is a safe bet. Trump has maintained a double-digit advantage in most Utah polls dating back to the spring.

Wyoming Stays Red

Biden’s odds to win Wyoming (+1600) are about as bad as they are to win any other state. Wyoming went for LBJ in 1964, which is the only election since 1952 in which the state has gone blue. Trump crushed Clinton by nearly 40 points here in 2016, so it’s easy to see why Biden is such a massive long shot.

If you want plus-money value with a chance of winning on Biden, find another state.