Polls and political betting sites agree that President Donald Trump is facing an uphill climb to win re-election. Most recent national polls give his opponent, Joe Biden, a sizable lead. Biden is also leading recent state polls in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Of course, 2016 taught us to expect the unexpected on Election Day. While Trump spent most of his first term as a sizable favorite to win another four-year term, Biden has emerged as the heavy favorite over the past few months. Biden is listed at -170 to win the 2020 election in the latest odds from MyBookie, for example.
While Trump faces long odds, he has overcome long odds before. Trump is still a perfectly viable betting option himself at +130 at MyBookie. Some US Presidential election betting sites had Trump around +400 to win four years ago. While you’re not getting quite as much upside on Trump individually, there are still plenty of ways to make your Trump bets even more profitable heading into the 2020 election.
If Trump is to successfully win a second term, he’s going to need to win a lot of the same states he unexpectedly captured in 2016. The path for Trump to get to 270 electoral votes is narrower than that of Biden, but it makes sense to combine any and all wagers on Trump to win with bets on the president in the following swing states. If Trump wins the general election, it will be because he wins these states.
Florida (-165)
It is incredibly difficult for Trump to win this election if he’s unable to win his adopted home state. Oddsmakers think Trump is not going to add a single state that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 to his ledger in 2020. That means Biden is essentially starting the night with 212 electoral votes, while Trump has just 125 on the path to 270.
Trump can’t reasonably prevent Biden from getting to 270 without Florida going red. The Sunshine State has 29 electoral votes up for grabs, which ties it with New York for the third-largest prize on the board behind California (55) and Texas (38).
Departing Georgia, Next rally, Opa-Locka, Florida.
Trump’s rally speeches getting shorter. Last two: under 50 mins. pic.twitter.com/1xlPLDwG0T— Mark Knoller (@markknoller) November 2, 2020
Four years ago, Trump won Florida with 49.02 percent of the vote compared to Clinton’s 47.82. While FiveThirtyEight’s most recent polling averages gives Biden a 48.9-46.5 lead in Florida, MyBookie has Trump as a pretty sizable -165 favorite to win the state. Oddsmakers and pollsters disagreeing on this election is nothing new, but any Trump bet to win the election should be combined with a bet on Trump to grab Florida’s 29 electoral votes.
If Biden winds up nabbing those 29 votes early on Election Night, Trump’s bid for re-election is already dead. For more on Trump’s odds to win Florida, check out the page linked below.
Pennsylvania (+125)
Trump’s upset of Clinton got real when he was able to pull off the upset in Pennsylvania. PA hands out 20 electoral votes, so it’s another huge prize. Both candidates have spent plenty of time in the Keystone State in the days leading up to November 3.
While Biden can still get to 270 even without Pennsylvania, Trump doesn’t have the same luxury. Biden would need to make up 11 electoral votes to get to 270 without Pennsylvania. If he gets Arizona, which accounts for 11 votes, he’s there.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 50% (+3)
Trump 47%@Rasmussen_Poll, LV, 10/31-11/1https://t.co/jOMQ28yO1I— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) November 2, 2020
Trump’s path to victory must include Pennsylvania. If those 20 votes swing in favor of Biden, Trump will have to take all of the Republican-leaning battlegrounds (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina) while also flipping several of the states that look more likely to go for Biden (Minnesota, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin). You can see a path there if you squint, but Pennsylvania is essentially just as big of a priority for Trump as Florida is.
For more on Trump’s odds to win Pennsylvania, check out the page linked below.
Ohio (-285)
Oddsmakers really like Trump to recapture Ohio. The president beat Clinton here by eight points four years ago. While polls do look decent for POTUS here, they’re not nearly as bullish on his chances in the Buckeye State as MyBookie’s oddsmakers are. FiveThirtyEight’s latest polling averages have Trump leading by less than one percentage point.
This is another 18 votes Trump essentially has to have. Ohio suddenly landing in Biden’s lap would essentially offset a potential Trump win in Pennsylvania.
If we add Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio to Trump’s starting point of 125 electoral votes, the president gets up to 192 in his quest to 270. Plugging in Texas’ 38 votes pushes him up to 230. Even if we generously put all of Georgia, North Carolina, Iowa, and Maine’s rural second district, Trump winds up below the threshold at 268.
That means he’ll have to carry at least one of Arizona, Michigan, or Wisconsin. Those three states are leaning heavily in Biden’s favor according to recent polling.
If only one of Florida, Pennsylvania, or Ohio swings in Biden’s favor, Trump’s path to victory is almost non-existent. So, if you’re betting on Trump’s long-shot odds to win the election, it makes sense to take a flier on his odds in each of those must-have battleground states.
For more on Trump’s odds to win Ohio, check out the page linked below.
Texas (-350)
If Biden somehow pulls out a win in Texas, this race is over. If you put Texas’ 38 votes into Biden’s column, he’s already at 250 electoral votes. That means he’ll need just two of Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan in order to get over 270. You can put Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, AND Iowa all in Trump’s win column and he’ll still lose the race if he doesn’t win Texas.
Final @ppppolls poll of Texas:@joebiden 50
@realDonaldTrump 48#tx2020 #txlege #txsen https://t.co/PV30btvLOw— Evan Smith (@evanasmith) October 31, 2020
While most recent polls legitimately have Texas rated as a true tossup, MyBookie still has Trump as a huge -350 favorite here. Texas hasn’t gone blue since voting for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Needless to say, Democrats haven’t exactly enjoyed a lot of recent success in the Lone Star State.
Texas has seen massive early voting turnout. While that may be something that tips the scales in favor of Democrats, especially in the state’s biggest cities, it’s still hard to imagine Democrats actually winning Texas in 2020. Oddsmakers are a lot more confident in Trump’s chances of winning Texas than polls may indicate, but if Trump is going to win, he cannot afford to let this state slip away.
Taylor Smith
Taylor Smith has been a staff writer with GamblingSites.org since early 2017. Taylor is primarily a sports writer, though he will occasionally dabble in other things like politics and entertainment betting. His primary specialties are writing about the NBA, Major League Baseball, NFL and domestic and international soccer. Fringe sports like golf and horse racing aren’t exactly his cup of tea, bu …
