Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks NHL Pick – February 2, 2021

There are a couple postponements on tonight’s NHL schedule, but we still have eight games to seek out some value and capitalize.

I see one game in particular that screams out value, so let’s dive into this Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks NHL pick from Chicago!

Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks Betting Odds

Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks NHL Pick Breakdown

Hurricanes

The Hurricanes have been limited to just six games this season while dealing with some protocols of their own while some key players remain on the league’s protocol list.

That said, head coach Rod Brind’Amour stated he hopes to get the likes of Teuvo Teravainen, Jacob Slavin, Warren Foegele and Jordan Martinook back for this matchup tonight, although nothing has been confirmed to this point.

The club has battled through the adversity with authority, authoring a 5-1-0 record in the early stages of the season while sitting first in the league with just 1.67 goals against per game and second with a 91.3% penalty kill so far.

The team’s advanced metrics on defense aren’t matching up with their league-best surface defense, but as a team the Hurricanes are once again dominating the possession game.

At 5v5 this season, the Hurricanes rank first in the NHL with a 56.76% Corsi For%, eighth with a 53.54% Scoring Chances For% and 12th with a 52.34% High-Danger Chances For%, as per Natural Stat Trick.

Offensively, they sit 18th with 2.83 goals per game on the season and 11th with a 26.9% power play.

However, they should see increased production at even strength moving forward. The ‘Canes sit fourth in scoring chances for/60, fifth in high-danger chances for/60 and first in the entire league in expected goals for/60, yet sit dead last with just 1.32 goals/60 at 5v5 this season with an expect mark more than double that number at 2.70.

A 29th-ranked high-danger shooting rate and last-ranked 4% shooting rate at 5v5 has killed their even-strength offense despite their domination behind the scenes. Expect that rate to increase significantly moving forward given the league’s worst 5v5 shooting rate last season was the Red Wings at 6.11%. The ‘Canes shot 8.11% last season at 5v5.

Getting the nod in goal for the road side tonight will be James Reimer, and he’ll be busy moving forward given the likely medium-to-long-term absence of Petr Mrazek.

Reimer has been good in three outings, posting a 1.99 GAA and .918 Sv%, going 3-0-0 in the process.

Tonight marks the veteran’s third appearance in the last four nights, however.

Blackhawks

This Blackhawks roster was decimated even before the season began. Youngster Alex Nylander and Kirby Dach are both out for the season while captain Jonathan Toews remains sidelined with an illness.

Add in the more recent absences of Alex DeBrincat and Adam Boqvist due to the NHL’s protocols and this roster is just beat down to a pulp at this point.

The offense started fine, but has since regressed. The Blackhawks rank 22nd with 2.60 goals per game and their 33.3% power play sits fifth, but they have gone just 1 for 9 (11.1%) on the man advantage over the last three games and have averaged just 1.75 goals per game over their last four contests.

It’s the defensive work that has truly stunk, as expected. The ‘Hawks sit tied for 18th with 3.00 goals against per game on the season, but also sit 29th in allowing 33.3 shots per game.

They also sit 27th in scoring chances against/60, 18th in high-danger chances against/60 and 22nd in expected goals against/60 at 5v5.

From a personnel standpoint, it’s a weak group and one that is once again struggling to prevent shots and scoring opportunities, something that bit them in a bad way last season.

The surface numbers aren’t as bad this season thanks to Kevin Lankinen, the team’s out-of-nowhere No. 1 netminder.

Both Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia struggled early, but Lankinen has come in and posted a 1.97 GAA and .937 Sv% across his six starts so far, going 3-1-2 in the process. He has the Blackhawks sitting third with an .894 Sv% on high-danger chances this season and 12th in overall 5v5 save percentage.

You wonder how long the 25-year-old can sustain this level of success. He posted a 3.03 GAA and .909 Sv% in 21 AHL hockey games last season and even spent six games in the ECHL in the 2018-19 season, posting an ugly 3.18 GAA and .893 Sv% at that level.

His emergence has been a wonderful story, but it’s an unsustainable one at the same time.

Hurricanes vs. Blackhawks NHL Pick

There’s no denying the Hurricanes are the far superior team here, and if they indeed get their protocol bodies back — most notably top-line winger Teravainen and No. 1 defender Slavin — this one could get ugly for the home side.

The ‘Canes are already peppering teams with shots, hitting the 40-shot plateau against a tough Stars defense their last time out on Sunday. Their power play is 4 for 10 over their last two games and their penalty kill 10 for 11 (91%) in that time.

The offense is so overdue to score more at 5v5. They aren’t going to be the best expected 5v5 offense yet the worst actual 5v5 offense for much longer. This is an excellent opportunity to reverse that mind-boggling trend in the early going.

I expect the Hurricanes to dominate this one from start to finish, but rather than lay the moneyline juice, I’ll take the ‘Canes on the 3-way moneyline at solid -110 odds tonight.