Is It Legal to Bet on the US Presidential Election?

On November 3rd, American voters will head to the polls to vote on the next President of the United States. Currently, Joe Biden is leading President Donald Trump in the polls and is favored to win the election.

Additionally, Biden is the odds on favorite to win the election with political betting sites as well.

If betting on the presidential election sounds strange to you, we assure you that it’s an activity that has been going on for quite some time. In fact, there’s a rich history of betting on politics in the United States that dates back to the early-1800s.

With that said, the question of legality comes into play depending on where you live.

Brief History of Betting on the Election

Historians believe that betting on the US election has gone on since the early 19th century. In fact, there are documented accounts showing that this was a very popular activity all the way up until World War II.

In the first half of the 1800s, gambling markets were unregulated and often ignored by lawmakers and law enforcement. Gamblers were able to wager on elections and other events at their own leisure and without harassment.

Following the Civil War all the way up to World War II, the underground gambling market was very profitable. In fact, many newspapers of that era would publish odds on each presidential election.

It was as if law enforcement treated political betting like jaywalking. Everyone does it, and it really doesn’t hurt anyone.

In a 2003 research paper by Koleman Strumpf and Paul Rhode, titled Historical Prediction Markets: Wagering on Presidential Elections, New Yorkers wagered a staggering handle on the 1916 election that would equate to $238 million dollars in 2020.

The two researchers estimated that New Yorkers, and other Americans, wagered an average of $53 million dollars (adjusted for 2020 inflation) on presidential elections from 1884 to 1928.

Political wagering was so popular in New York, and other regions as well, that bettors would place bets on the elections even at the New York Stock Exchange.

By the 1940s, the American government began to crack down heavily on political gambling and sports betting as a whole.

For the last 80 years, presidential betting has been illegal in the United States except for one brief moment in April 2020.

West Virginia Allows Presidential Betting in 2020

For roughly one hour in April, and no this wasn’t an April Fool’s joke, FanDuel offered presidential betting odds in the state of West Virginia. They believed since their parent company was based in Europe, where it’s legal to bet on politics, that it would be allowed.

Within minutes of hearing about what FanDuel did, Secretary of State Mac Warner contacted the West Virginia Lottery and strongly expressed his disapproval over this occurrence. Warner made the following comments at the time of the incident:

“Gambling on the outcome of an election has no place in our American democracy. Not today. Not tomorrow. Not ever. This is a terrible idea. Let’s shut this down right now and be very clear about it.”

West Virginia Governor Jim Justice was caught off guard by all of this and ultimately, the blame fell on the West Virginia Lottery Directory John Meyers who chalked it up to a “mistake.”

Why is Presidential Election Betting Illegal in the United States?

One significant reason why presidential betting is illegal is due to the fear that betting on an election could manipulate the outcome.

This is a similar fear that professional sports leagues had as well, before coming around to the growing industry. Yet, with sports, athletes could get bribed to lose an event.

With politics, candidates wouldn’t try to throw an election. There’s no taking a dive when it comes to being the next President of the United States. But, it could impact Presidential nominations in different parties where candidates could take a dive to allow the party’s preferred choice to win.

Another concern, and probably the more realistic one, is that presidential betting could have a negative impact on the voters. If their candidate is listed as a longshot then it could dissuade these voters from even going to the polls.

Will the United States Ever Legalize Presidential Betting?

When the Supreme Court overturned PASPA in May 2018, they basically told each state that it’s up to them to individually decide on the legality of sports betting. As of this writing, nearly half of the country has legalized sports betting since then.

Although none of these states allow presidential betting at this time, it’s more of a question of “when” rather than “if” it will become legal.

I believe we will have states that legalize presidential betting before this decade is over. I put the Over/Under at December 31st, 2029, and I’m going with the Under.

Sites to Bet on the US Presidential Election

Just because the US doesn’t allow presidential betting doesn’t mean you can’t still place a wager on Joe Biden or Donald Trump to become the 46th President of the United States. In fact, there are numerous top notch online betting sites that allow wagers on the Presidential Election.

Currently, sites like BetOnline, Bovada, and MyBookie the US Presidential election betting odds are as follows:

In addition to winning the Presidential Election, these political betting sites also offer a wide range of prop bets like:

• Which nominee will win the Popular Vote?
• Will the Popular Vote winner also win the Electoral Vote?

There are also wagers on the Over/Under for the number of voters and for the overall turnout.

As you can see, betting on the US Presidential Election isn’t just a matter of picking a winner. There are plenty of betting options that provide additional opportunities, decent value, and potential to win some cash for the upcoming holidays.