Is It Wise to Insert Analytics Into NFL Betting?

We are living in the Age of Analytics in the NFL. At no other time in NFL history could analytics tell you things such as the catch probability or the touchdown probability of a certain play or drive. Or, what are the odds Kicker X makes the game-winning field goal?

Today, analytics rules the NFL and yes, you can bet that you will see its popularity grow among NFL betting.

But is it really wise to insert analytics into your NFL betting game?

The short answer is yes and no. Sure, analytics will provide you specific probabilities to determine that most likely outcome. But, computers can’t account for unforeseen events like injuries, weather conditions, or just poor play from a star player.

Be cautious with analytics, but experiment with analytics and see how you fare. This post will tell you everything you need to know.

Analytics Makes Zero Guarantees

As you can take from the intro, don’t expect analytics to be your golden ticket to quit your day job and please, don’t fall for online con-artists who have this “secret betting strategy” that they’re now willing to share.

As analytics becomes more popular in the NFL betting world, you will see bogus products popping up all over the place. Ignore them unless you know the face and name attached to the product and make sure it’s a respected one at that.

Regardless if you invest in a betting course or so-called secret strategy, never expect a guaranteed win from using such products. Analytics doesn’t predict anything. Analytics just lays out the most possible outcomes.

Look at it this way: How many times do you see the NFL’s best receivers make improbable catches? Analytics will probably give them a 15 to 30 percent chance of catching the ball. But how many crazy catches have DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, and Tyreek Hill made?

How many jaw-dropping passes have Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, and Patrick Mahomes made?

You can count at least 100 between the listed players in the past season alone, not to mention earlier seasons. So don’t trust analytics as if it’s the next great gift to Earth. It isn’t.

But it can be helpful.

How Using Analytics Helps Increase Odds

Analytics will show you odds for specific scenarios. For example, if you bet player props and Kyler Murray’s touchdown pass line is 1.5, what are the odds he throws for 2 touchdowns? At the time of this writing, Murray has thrown 1.72 touchdowns per game.

Looks good, right?

But analytics takes this a step further. How many touchdowns on average does Kyler Murray throw for when he rushes for at least 50 yards in games? The number is closer to 2. Less than 50? The number is closer to 1, if any.

Let’s say the team Murray is playing has a poor rush defense and a good pass defense. Despite the good pass defense, the poor rush defense will probably open things up for Murray. Analytics would show it’s best to bet over that 1.5 line.

If the opposite is true and the opponents stuff rushing quarterbacks, analytics will show it’s best to bet the under.

Analytics in Fantasy Football

You can use the example in the above section in terms of fantasy football. However, you would look at a few things here:

How does the opposition fare against your player? So if your player is a quarterback, analytics will tell you how many fantasy points, on average, does the defense give up against quarterbacks. Ditto for running backs, receivers, etc.

But analytics can take it a step further. If your quarterback is a pocket passer, you can even use analytics to determine how many points they give up against passers who scramble for fewer than 15 yards. If they play a scrambler, how many points do they give up against quarterbacks who run for 30 or more yards?

You can dig deep for each position. How many average fantasy points do opposing defenses give up against backs on committee? Featured backs? Power backs? Receiving backs? You get the gist of it.

Analytics in Straight Betting

Analytics can show you a few things here. For one, how often does a team cover the spread?

Once again, analytics can dive even deeper. How often does a team cover the spread against their division rival? How often does a team cover the spread at home? On the road? In the Eastern Time Zone? The Western Time Zone?

See how well you can narrow this down?

You may read this and think that analytics is a magic key and what I had written above is nothing more than pessimism. But remember, analytics can’t predict unforeseen events.

Take the Denver-New Orleans game, where on Saturday night Denver’s entire quarterback room ended up on the COVID list and they had to use a practice squad receiver with little quarterback experience named Kendall Hinton to be their starting quarterback.

Or better yet, players who are questionable and face game-time decisions. The spread can go crazy just before kickoff and send your week-long homework into a frenzy.

Analytics in Over/Under

Onto over/under. The game is simple. If the two teams playing against one another are offensive powerhouses, you can expect a higher over/under. If the teams play defense well, expect a lower total or over/under.

If you never went deep with analytics before, you were probably looking at 2 numbers consistently. Points per game by the offense, and points allowed per game by the defense.

This is where most people stop.

However, if you want to go deep with analytics, you will look at a few more things.

Such as points per game against that team if, say, the teams met last year or if they played one another twice in a divisional matchup. Or, what is a team’s points per game average in a dome or on turf as opposed to a natural setting?

If the Cleveland Browns are playing a warm weather team and the winds are swirling in Cleveland as they had for a few of Cleveland’s home games in 2020, you can use those history lessons to your advantage.

The Browns and their opponents combined for just 22 and 17 points, respectively, in 2 home games in Cleveland, where the conditions were less than ideal.

Or, if the high-flying Kansas City Chiefs are playing the Las Vegas Raiders in Vegas. Obviously, the controlled environment means teams don’t need to worry about exterior factors like wind or rain. Not that Vegas expects it, anyway. But it also takes heat out of the equation.

So how do the Chiefs and Raiders fare on offense under ideal conditions? Hey, unless the Raiders are playing the Atlanta Falcons, you’ll probably see the 2 teams threaten the over/under. At least from an analytics standpoint.

Analytics in NFL Futures

Even though this one doesn’t account for one, but several NFL matchups, you can also use analytics in terms of NFL futures to make a smart bet on the potential winner of the Super Bowl, Conference, and Divisions.

Analytics will tell you a few things, such as how many players are back from the last season’s team along with their coaching staffs. That alone will give you base analytics advice.

But they can also show you a few more things, like strength of schedule for the upcoming season, recent history versus opponents, history against division rivals, how they fare in specific environments, and even how the opponents fare in specific environments.

Look at the NFC West, where all 4 teams are on the West Coast and must make cross-country trips. Perhaps jetlag doesn’t affect the Arizona Cardinals as much as it does the San Francisco 49ers. Or at least it didn’t the previous season (this is just a hypothetical example).

So if the NFC West plays both the AFC and NFC East, you can project that if the Cardinals fared better during a cross-country road trip or two last season, chances are they will be just fine for the upcoming season.

But if the Niners didn’t fare so well, it may give them a disadvantage the average bettor probably won’t catch. But if you used analytics, you could catch this potential disadvantage.

Of course, the Niners can overcome the 10:00 am body clock in the current season and vice versa for the Cardinals, but analytics can give you a solid idea here and it could impact who wins the division and who ultimately makes the playoffs.

Conclusion

Analytics will never work wonders, so don’t think that just by researching or investing in sports-betting-related analytics that you will gain a highly competitive edge.

If it were that easy we’d all be winning our NFL bets. However, they can help increase your odds of winning bets in each NFL-related betting avenue listed above by showing you the probability of specific outcomes based on how players and teams fare in specific scenarios.

Don’t rely solely on analytics, though. Remember, big things can happen on any given Sunday. A player could get hurt and their backup can steal the show. Or, a team with lesser talent may be the first to figure out a more talented team.

In short, analytics will help you regarding probability, but they won’t always win you a bet. They’re great to use as a tool. But don’t blindly bet on something because analytics predicted an outcome.