KBO Picks for Thursday, April 22

We went four-for-five with our KBO picks on Wednesday. The Samsung Lions and LG Twins both covered their respective runlines in lopsided victories, while the game between the Lotte Giants and Doosan Bears flew over the pregame 10.5-run total. The Eagles-Heroes game also came in under 8.5 runs, as well.

We’ll try to keep the momentum going on Thursday with another five-game KBO slate. Odds are posted and courtesy of MyBookie’s online sportsbook, so let’s get started with our predictions.

Kiwoom Heroes vs Hanwha Eagles

The Heroes lost yet again on Wednesday in a 4-3 setback against Hanwha. Kiwoom is now a league-worst 5-11 so far this season and riding a five-game losing skid. Kiwoom is a -178 favorite in their series finale tonight against Hanwha as they look to avoid a second-straight series sweep.

The Heroes will have Hyun-hee Han on the mound on Thursday, while the Eagles will counter with Si-hwan Jang. Han was solid in his 2021 debut last week against KT, holding the Wiz to three runs on three hits with four strikeouts in 6.1 innings of work. For his career, the 27-yaer-old righty is 53-37 at the KBO level with a decent 4.26 ERA. Han has bounced back-and-forth between the rotation and bullpen over the years, but he’s been a full-time starter since the start of 2020.

Jang, another right-hander, is off to a dreadful 0-2 start. He was blasted for six runs on seven hits by Doosan in his first outing of the year before taking another loss last time out against the NC Dinos. He has allowed nine runs in just seven innings of work, which has been par for the course for him as a KBO journeyman. Since breaking into the league back in 2007 with Hyundai, Jang has a career 5.38 ERA across stints with five different teams.

The Heroes have been dreadful offensively of late, but it’s hard not to like their chances of getting back into the win column tonight against a very weak starter. I think Kiwoom finally bounces back with a win to salvage a game in this series, so bet the Heroes’ moneyline at -178 in this one.

SSG Landers vs Samsung Lions

I said yesterday that this matchup had the potential to get out of hand in the Lions’ favor, and that’s exactly what happened. Samsung tattooed SSG starter Geun-wook Lee for seven runs on eight hits, including three homers, in just 3.2 innings to begin the game. Jose Pirela homered twice as the Lions banged out 15 hits in a 14-4 drubbing of the Landers.

This has been a high-scoring series, with the teams combining to score 17 and 18 runs in the first two games, respectively. Tonight, the Lions are -175 home favorites to win the rubber match in a game with a high 10.5 over/under.

Ben Lively will get the ball for Samsung, while Won-seok Oh climbs the mound for SSG. Lively, who spent time in the major leagues with the Philles, is 10-12 with a 4.41 ERA since joining the KBO in 2019. He pitched to a solid 3.95 ERA as a rookie back in ’19 before going 6-7 with a 4.26 mark last season. The right-hander got off to a dismal start by yielding a total of 11 runs in 8.2 innings across his first two starts of this year before bouncing back with a nice showing in his last start at Lotte. Lively held the Giants to a run on four hits in a no-decision back on April 16.

Oh has pitched six times out of the bullpen this season, and this will be just the second start of his brief career. He posted a 5.59 ERA across eight appearances, including a start, last season. The left-hander is only 19 with a career ERA of 5.00 at this level. He hasn’t thrown more than 44 pitches in any of his previous outings so far this season, so we may have something of a bullpen game here for SSG.

Once again, I think the Lions’ runline is attackable. The Landers don’t have a particularly good pitching staff to begin with, and Oh is hardly a proven commodity in this league. Lively is nothing to write home about, but I do think the Samsung offense can pick up where they left off last night. Take Samsung to win by at least two runs at the +110 odds.

Kia Tigers vs LG Twins

The LG Twins picked up a 7-3 triumph over the Kia Tigers last night, and the two teams will play for the series victory this evening. Hyung-jong Lee and Roberto Ramos each homered for the Twins last night, while Deok-ju Ham and five relievers held the Tigers to just three runs despite 10 total hits.

LG is a sizable -238 moneyline favorite tonight with Casey Kelly toeing the rubber. Eui-lee Lee will get the nod for Kia.

Kelly, 31, has been one of the best pitchers in Korea since arriving prior to the 2019 campaign. He went 14-12 with an excellent 2.55 ERA in his debut season with the Twins before following it up with a 15-7 record and a 3.32 ERA last season. So far in 2021, the right-hander is 1-0 and has allowed just three total runs through three games against the Dinos, SSG Landers, and Doosan.

Lee is an 18-year-old rookie making his third career KBO start. The lefty has fared admirably well to this point, though we’re working with a very limited sample. Lee has allowed five earned runs on six hits in 9.2 innings to this point with 10 strikeouts and seven walks.

The Twins will make for a smart bet any time their ace takes the mound. Kelly has been one of the stingiest pitchers in the KBO over the past few years, so the Tigers’ bats will likely be up against it in this one. Bet LG to cover the runline and pick up an easy win at -112.

KT Wiz vs NC Dinos

The NC Dinos edged past the KT Wiz by the final score of 4-3 on Wednesday, and the teams will duke it out in the rubber match in Changwon on Thursday. The Dinos banged out eight hits while scoring all four of their runs against KT starter William Cuevas last night, while the Wiz’ bats were unable to get anything going against the Dinos’ bullpen. NC’s five relievers gave up just one hit in four scoreless innings last night to close the door on KT.

As usual, the Dinos are heavy favorites tonight. MyBookie has NC at -196 on the moneyline in a game with a 9.5-run over/under.

Ace right-hander Drew Rucinski will get the ball for the Dinos, while the Wiz will have wily veteran Odrisamer Despaigne on the mound. Rucinski is just flat-out better than most other starters in the KBO, and he has consistently dominated since debuting with the Dinos two years ago. In 63 career games in the league, Rucinski is 30-14 with a 2.98 ERA.

So far this season, he has looked every bit like the ace the Dinos are paying him to be. Rucinski is 2-0 through three starts against LG, Kia, and Hanwha, and he has allowed exactly one earned run in each game.

Despaigne, a former San Diego Padre, has also found a home in the KBO. Despaigne hasn’t been nearly as good as his counterpart tonight, but the numbers are solid. The 34-year-old went 15-8 with a 4.33 ERA in his first year with KT last season. Despaigne has a tough-luck 0-2 record through three starts this season despite a solid 3.38 ERA. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his starts, either.

The Dinos’ potent offense is likely the main reason this game has as high of a total as it does (9.5), but this game has the potential to turn into a pitcher’s duel. There is no reason to believe Rucinski won’t hold up his end of the deal against the Wiz. NC is a good bet to do a bit more damage against Despaigne, but this is still a good spot to bet the under on that total.

Doosan Bears vs Lotte Giants

The Giants were able to outlast the Bears 10-9 in a shootout last night. The teams combined for 23 hits, while each of the top four hitters in the Lotte lineup collected multiple knocks. Jae-hwan Kim homered twice and racked up five RBIs in a losing effort for Doosan. The Giants have scored 10 runs in each of the first two games of the series, and they’ll go for the sweep on Thursday.

Oddsmakers like Lotte to complete that sweep, as the Giants are -175 home favorites this evening in a game with a low 8.5 over/under. That’s because Lotte will have Dan Straily on the mound, who has been arguably the best pitcher in the league since his debut last season. The former Marlin, Astro, and Athletic posted a 2.50 ERA across 31 games as a rookie last year for the Giants while posting 205 strikeouts in 194.2 innings of work.

Straily is 1-2 so far this season with an even lower ERA (2.00) than he had last year. He was knocked around a bit in his season debut by SSG when he allowed three runs on seven hits, but he has held Kiwoom and Samsung to just one combined earned run in each of his last two starts combined. Straily is just the ace of aces in this league, so the Giants are going to be heavy favorites just about any time he takes the mound.

Walker Lockett, another former big leaguer, will go for Doosan. Lockett has been quite impressive in his own right through his first three career KBO starts. The ex-Met is 1-1, but hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in those three games against Kia, Hanwha, and LG. Lockett’s 1.56 ERA likely isn’t sustainable over the course of the full season, but he should find more consistent success here than he did in MLB.

While the first two games of this series have had plenty of offensive fireworks, runs should come at a premium in tonight’s finale. This game has the lowest over/under betting option on the day at 8.5 runs, but even that looks far too high. Bet on a pitcher’s duel breaking out between Straily and Lockett and go for the under here at -117.